What is your true Hatch success rate?

Just for controversy of topic and thought, and maybe to create a Standard method (who knows)....? No haters please!

To explain how this question "title above" came to be and how my method spawned is simple;
I have bad eyes (10% floaters) and at reading distance, I see double letters and lots of spots.This goes to say that even though I can visually see cracks during candling, I am unable to determine fertility of an un-incubated egg in my hand due to my vision. I have to wait for larger visual signs of blood vessel development before making the determination. Thus it leads to the question and my method.

What is your true Hatch success rate?
When I brag my Hatch success rate, it is of the number of eggs left AFTER I have Candled and culled for the first time...and then some and I began to wonder if others brag HSR based on others methods?

Let me explain! Hatch success rate "for me" refers to all VIABLE hatch-able eggs, It does not refer to all the eggs I cram in the incubator in the beginning!!! Some eggs can be non-viable, infertile, clears, cracked, or accidentally damaged by the turner (me) , etc, in such they will not ever be considered a hatch-able egg. So, they do not get considered as part of the whole count or the number expected to hatch or not hatch? They are only a statistic of non-viable due to circumstance.

To amplify the question above with a point of example; a female of menstrual maturity have cycles each month (producing eggs/human ova) but unless they are fertilized, it is just an ovulation (laying an non-fertile egg). Should we consider that as a statistical miscarriage or include the female in statistics that mentions or includes them in statistical pregnancy of a population? What if the woman's baring never able to produce an egg capable of being fertilize such as a "Clear", or even though fertilized it never starts to develop because it is damaged?
In contrast, only after the viable egg is fertilized, and the fetus starts to develop do we consider it a pregnancy with potential of birth. In such, the fetus either comes to term or miscarriages.

Thus, for the poultry egg, as for all life forms I am sure, it is of the viable, fertile, non damaged eggs, that should be counted in statistics of Hatch success rate. Removing those that never stand a chance of hatching during the process of development should never be counted. In such I do not have nor do I expect to have a 100% success in hatch, but I do have a more accurate statistical analysis of my hatch success!

What your take?

I have always considered the "hatch rate" calculation to be # hatched divided by # expected to hatch. It doesn't make sense to me to include infertile/non-developing eggs because they would not hatch even under perfect conditions.

An argument could be made that perhaps early quitters should be included in the calculation, but we don't know why early quitters are quitting. It could be the incubator, the quality or cleanliness of the shell, a bacterial or viral infection, or it could be strictly genetic/developmental. Unless you are a major commercial hatchery, investigating the cause is asking too much.

Perhaps we could use two statistics: # hatched / # locked down, and # hatched / # set. i.e. I don't expect 90% of the eggs I set to hatch (I already pulled more than 10% at first candle), but I would like 90% of what I lock down to hatch.

It depends if you use shipped eggs, and their age when you start incubation, I have used shipped eggs when I hatched some chicks (under a broody) 4/6 hatched, one of those that hatched dried and ended up outside the best and died overnight (first time broody) the other hatched from a buried egg and died under the straw. The remaining 2 have made it into adulthood. So hatch rate is 66% - I'm sure with more experience the deaths could have been prevented...

tobit said:

It depends if you use shipped eggs, and their age when you start incubation, I have used shipped eggs when I hatched some chicks (under a broody) 4/6 hatched, one of those that hatched dried and ended up outside the best and died overnight (first time broody) the other hatched from a buried egg and died under the straw. The remaining 2 have made it into adulthood. So hatch rate is 66% - I'm sure with more experience the deaths could have been prevented...

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I can understand the shipping having an effect as shipping could "unintentionally" scramble eggs. I have never had any shipped but seen how some packages are processed at fed-x and others. Perhaps if we put the words "Nitroglycerin, DO NOT SHAKE, This side up! and Fragile" on packaged eggs they might get treated more carefully!
Still, using my own hens eggs, I have left them in the nest for as much as 21 days and then 2 more days inside in the Cool AC before incubating them. I had 93% and 96% to hatch. So I don't put as much stock in the common 7 day rule of age as much as I do in treatment of the eggs. I don't count my brooder box deaths as hatch rate but more so a chick brooder survival/mortality rate, which I consider to be different. Still, sorry to hear about the losses on your chicks, I am disappointed ever time I find one in the brooder. Still it is what was meant to be and the chick did have a chance! Usually the death is the other chicks trampling or pecking on them (I raise Bob Whites).

Yes that's a great idea lol! I only expected 1 to hatch after candling so I'm pretty happy to be honest, I forgot to mention that I ordered eggs of different breed, the 2 that didn't hatch were both blue laced red wyandottes so I suspect this may have been a fertility problem not so much the postage!

I'm getting about 50% hatch rate on Button quail shipped eggs and 45% on Coturnix shipped eggs.

spotsplus said:

I'm getting about 50% hatch rate on Button quail shipped eggs and 45% on Coturnix shipped eggs.

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1/2? Were they clears, fertile, blood rings....?
Having never incubated shipped eggs I cant comment on the rate being good or bad. I know shipping eggs in is in my near future as dont want to inner breed and those percentages would disturb me. If it were eggs costing $0.50 ea. and I bought 100 I would be seriously reconsidering my incubation process, settings, and accuracy of my thermometer, humidity gages. If all seemed kosher, changing suppliers would be my last resort as 1/2 would be 25.00 down the drain plus permit to have them shipped in if out of state.

I don't including and eggs culled as 'clears' if they were infertile they never had a chance... If they start to develop and quit then I'll count them...

This season I'm at about 95% hatch rate with my own eggs or locally obtained eggs that I picked up... This is mostly pea eggs followed by guinea eggs with a few chickens to round it off...

Shipped eggs are another story, so I keep those number separate... I'm not going to blame 'incubation' or include in in the numbers when there was obviously some improper handling done before I got the eggs, bad in equals bad out and it's not the result of an incubation problem...

Shipment one, out of 30 shipped peas 22 never started (clears, scrambled), 6 blood ringed the first week, one early quitter and I'm down to one still kicking as of today, due end of week... So that leaves a 3% hatch rate overall, but about 12% hatch rate if you remove the clears/scrambled...

Shipment two, out of 8 Guinea eggs, 1 clear, 7 are still going as of now... So 100% if you remove the clear, due end of week...

Note that both shipments were set the same day in the same incubator, the same incubator that I set local eggs in once a week...

When I'm getting 95% hatches out of local eggs, and get what appears a 100% hatch out of one shipment the bad shipment is clearly an anomaly...

At the end of the day even if I do include the horrible results of the bad shipment I will still be above 90%...

If I set 100 eggs and I hatch 50 chicks, that would equal a 50% hatch rate. I believe, to be accurate, you have include the clear, infertile eggs in your total equation.

I use this example because it is valuable information when it comes to incubation problem solving. Of the 50 eggs that did not hatch, you will need to know why, in order to solve the low hatch rate problem. Of the 50 that did not hatch, how many were clears and how many started but did not fully develop. Do I have an incubation problem or a breeder bird problem?

When you are setting shipped eggs it opens the door to many issues that are beyond your control and I would think a 50% hatch rate would be consider good results.

The more you can narrow down your problem area, the better your chances of increasing your hatch rate.

I don't include clears in my calculations. I do include any thing that shows development, even if it quits early.
My last hatch I only had 21 eggs that got set. Five were clears. Out of sixteen developing eggs only 11 hatched. The way I see it, that's a 68 percent hatch rate because the clears wouldn't develop any way.