Good to know!! Not that I’ll ever be drinking it
I would have thought it’d be stronger. But then again some vodka is stronger than that.
Coronavirus, Covid 19 Discussion and How It Has Affected Your Daily Life Chat Thread
- Thread starter CapricornFarm
- Start date
Good to know!! Not that I’ll ever be drinking it
I would have thought it’d be stronger. But then again some vodka is stronger than that.- Thread starter
- #4,992
I wondered how that happened.I changed the title of this thread to truly reflect the state of it now that you guys have been yammering on about other stuff.Carry on chatting about the virus and or what you are doing to cope on a daily basis. If any of you do get way off topic here in the future, feel free to start another type chatting thread.
Enjoy!
-BYC Staff
I thought I would write this because there are a lot of terms being used in the various news bulletins are not well understood, even by those who write the bulletins it seems. I’ve tried to explain without using and algebraic terms in simple English.
Exponential Growth.
It’s about how something multiplies. It’s a model, a guesstimate about how something behaves.
If I’m infected with a transmittable virus; and it is a virus that I can pass on to other people, be that through touch, or by breathing, or through other means, then the more people I have contact with the higher the probability is I will pass the virus to them. Most transmittable viruses exhibit exponential growth because most people do not live in isolation. So, exponential growth doesn't really have anything to do the virus itself; it’s to do with the behaviour of the host; that’s you and me. The more people you come into contact with the higher the probability is you will infect one, or more persons by passing the virus to them.
The easiest exponential growth to understand is one person passing the virus on to two others. The two others you have passed the virus to then go about their day and each person passes the virus onto two more people each. In this case the number of infected people doubles as each new group of infected people infect the next group; 1>2>4>8>16>32>64>128>256 etc.
The exponent (how many other people each person passes the virus to) is an estimate, it does not necessarily represent reality. A graph showing an exponential curve is smooth providing the time interval is constant. For example a graph showing the doubling effect mentioned with the time interval as one day will produce a smooth curve. I’m sure many of you will have seen such graphs.
A very sociable person may pass the virus onto more than two people and this reality produces a bend or deviations from the perfect curve. This is important because it shows that the model (the doubling of infection from each infected person) isn’t representing reality. At some point, one or more of the infected people has infected more than two people. This makes the graph curve climb more steeply.
If on the other hand one of the people doesn’t infect any others, the curve of the graph becomes less steep.
Scientists and mathematicians make these models by observing what happens in reality and then estimating what number the exponent should be to accurately represent what is actually happening.
I’ve seen some really shocking uses of such graphs that seem to be produced to encourage that “Oh my god we’re all going to die” responses.
There are two very important you need to take into account when looking at such graphs.
First what is the exponent used in the model the graph represents. Does it represent the doubling mentioned above or tripling or some other number?
Second is time and this is as important as the exponent used. If for example the transfer point (where one person infects another only happens once a year you can still have exponential growth but the growth is slow. In the doubling example above it would take 5 years from the first transfer of the virus to another person to reach a point where 32 two people were infected. On the other hand, if the transfer is every minute then the virus spreads very quickly.
So, the speed of transfer can be much more important than the exponential function.
This is why knowing approximately how many people have the virus is important. It enables those who construct these models estimate the speed of transfer much more accurately. This is why random testing is considered far better than just testing those who show symptoms.
Flattening the curve.
There are lots of articles talking about flattening the curve. Why is this considered important?
The assumption is that at some point the virus will reach an infection peak after which it will still infect people but not so quickly. It does not mean the virus has gone away. It just means that the infection rate has slowed down; less people are getting infected in a given time period.
It doesn’t necessarily mean less people will die from the virus. They just won’t die at such a fast rate.
The reason flattening the curve is considered important is to help prevent more people becoming infected than the health system can cope with. In theory, it is a lot easier to cope with a trickle than a flood.
However, this only works while the curve stays below an imaginary line drawn horizontally across the graph that represents the health service capacity. The health service capacity can for the sake of the model be considered as a fixed quantity. Lots of things go to make up this quantity from beds, staff, ventilators etc. To increase the capacity takes time and of course money and the availability of the necessary items such as nurses and equipment. One hopes that with increased capacity the health service can save more lives but it isn’t necessarily so. In some countries now the health service capacity has been reached and doctors are having to make decisions on who they believe have better recovery chances than others. With increased capacity this shouldn’t need to happen.
An ending comment.
It seems from what little we know about the current virus Covid-19 that it is possible to be a carrier without being aware of it. The assumption that because you or I don’t feel ill, does not mean we are not infected with the virus.
Each time you or I leave our homes and go out to get some chicks, or visit that fast food store down the road because we don’t want to cook, or just go shopping for a few bits and pieces to ensure we are stocked up we take a risk of not only getting infected, but passing an infection we are completely unaware of on to someone else. This makes crossing that imaginary health service capacity line more likely.
For those interested in the math.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_function
Exponential Growth.
It’s about how something multiplies. It’s a model, a guesstimate about how something behaves.
If I’m infected with a transmittable virus; and it is a virus that I can pass on to other people, be that through touch, or by breathing, or through other means, then the more people I have contact with the higher the probability is I will pass the virus to them. Most transmittable viruses exhibit exponential growth because most people do not live in isolation. So, exponential growth doesn't really have anything to do the virus itself; it’s to do with the behaviour of the host; that’s you and me. The more people you come into contact with the higher the probability is you will infect one, or more persons by passing the virus to them.
The easiest exponential growth to understand is one person passing the virus on to two others. The two others you have passed the virus to then go about their day and each person passes the virus onto two more people each. In this case the number of infected people doubles as each new group of infected people infect the next group; 1>2>4>8>16>32>64>128>256 etc.
The exponent (how many other people each person passes the virus to) is an estimate, it does not necessarily represent reality. A graph showing an exponential curve is smooth providing the time interval is constant. For example a graph showing the doubling effect mentioned with the time interval as one day will produce a smooth curve. I’m sure many of you will have seen such graphs.
A very sociable person may pass the virus onto more than two people and this reality produces a bend or deviations from the perfect curve. This is important because it shows that the model (the doubling of infection from each infected person) isn’t representing reality. At some point, one or more of the infected people has infected more than two people. This makes the graph curve climb more steeply.
If on the other hand one of the people doesn’t infect any others, the curve of the graph becomes less steep.
Scientists and mathematicians make these models by observing what happens in reality and then estimating what number the exponent should be to accurately represent what is actually happening.
I’ve seen some really shocking uses of such graphs that seem to be produced to encourage that “Oh my god we’re all going to die” responses.
There are two very important you need to take into account when looking at such graphs.
First what is the exponent used in the model the graph represents. Does it represent the doubling mentioned above or tripling or some other number?
Second is time and this is as important as the exponent used. If for example the transfer point (where one person infects another only happens once a year you can still have exponential growth but the growth is slow. In the doubling example above it would take 5 years from the first transfer of the virus to another person to reach a point where 32 two people were infected. On the other hand, if the transfer is every minute then the virus spreads very quickly.
So, the speed of transfer can be much more important than the exponential function.
This is why knowing approximately how many people have the virus is important. It enables those who construct these models estimate the speed of transfer much more accurately. This is why random testing is considered far better than just testing those who show symptoms.
Flattening the curve.
There are lots of articles talking about flattening the curve. Why is this considered important?
The assumption is that at some point the virus will reach an infection peak after which it will still infect people but not so quickly. It does not mean the virus has gone away. It just means that the infection rate has slowed down; less people are getting infected in a given time period.
It doesn’t necessarily mean less people will die from the virus. They just won’t die at such a fast rate.
The reason flattening the curve is considered important is to help prevent more people becoming infected than the health system can cope with. In theory, it is a lot easier to cope with a trickle than a flood.
However, this only works while the curve stays below an imaginary line drawn horizontally across the graph that represents the health service capacity. The health service capacity can for the sake of the model be considered as a fixed quantity. Lots of things go to make up this quantity from beds, staff, ventilators etc. To increase the capacity takes time and of course money and the availability of the necessary items such as nurses and equipment. One hopes that with increased capacity the health service can save more lives but it isn’t necessarily so. In some countries now the health service capacity has been reached and doctors are having to make decisions on who they believe have better recovery chances than others. With increased capacity this shouldn’t need to happen.
An ending comment.
It seems from what little we know about the current virus Covid-19 that it is possible to be a carrier without being aware of it. The assumption that because you or I don’t feel ill, does not mean we are not infected with the virus.
Each time you or I leave our homes and go out to get some chicks, or visit that fast food store down the road because we don’t want to cook, or just go shopping for a few bits and pieces to ensure we are stocked up we take a risk of not only getting infected, but passing an infection we are completely unaware of on to someone else. This makes crossing that imaginary health service capacity line more likely.
For those interested in the math.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_function
FortCluck
Hatch-a-Long Queen
My doctor said that everything should be normal after June, but those with pre-existing conditions should still take a lot of caution.
Possibly? I think the difference in population density has to be the top factor though (only been to NYC once, and it was a sea of humanity). The area I live in, in contrast, isn't even allowed to have apartments or condos...
And well before the order to shelter in place came in, a lot of tech companies had their employees switch to working from home, so I think that preemptively slowed spread as well. Many of the tech companies normally allow for that, even for contractor positions (I don't recall hubby ever being told that he can't work from home), so they were able to switch gears quickly without impacting business.
Probably depends on area but I've been suggesting to my mother in law to skip the senior hours and just go during regular store hours. The senior hours are way more crowded because shoppers are hoping they just restocked. Kind of misses the point in not putting a lot of people into a confined area all at one time though.
We have a large walk in pantry so I've just been leaving grocery bags with non perishable food items in there, untouched, until we actually need something from them.
My realtor once told me that she thought it was so funny seeing me in "farmer" mode with gloves, dirty clothes, boots, a chicken under one arm... she said all the other times she sees me I'm dressed up, matching manicure, hair done, tottering in heels, clutching a purse, etc. She has a hard time connecting those two images.
Taking out the ribs is always a good idea, they get tough. Best thing to improve flavor of kale is a few days of hard frost, which is why winter/just past winter kale from a colder climate kale is the best.
Same. Plus spinach bolts in hot weather, then can't stand the freeze, so kale is just so much more practical.
Dad hid coronavirus symptoms to visit maternity ward after wife gave birth ...
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...EwAg&usg=AOvVaw3cs2eFTPPmRFImyE-FUCqm&cf=1
Don't know why my links suck...
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...EwAg&usg=AOvVaw3cs2eFTPPmRFImyE-FUCqm&cf=1
Don't know why my links suck...
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I’ve also discovered that fresh, young kale is great as a salad instead of lettuce.
2 many chickens
Crowing
- Jan 14, 2017
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I read that earlier.. made me angry at the guy. Yeah, I get it, you don't want to miss the birth of your child but does he realize he just possibly put his new baby's life at risk? Very very selfish.
Wow that's incredibly selfish of him. I get that he wants to be with his wife and his new baby, but to potentially expose other wives, other fathers, and other babies, his OWN baby, to it...
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