What are the chances..?

Discussion in 'Ducks' started by KikiDeAnime, Nov 19, 2019.

  1. KikiDeAnime

    KikiDeAnime Songster

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    I've found another person selling ducklings. They're Chocolate Runners and they're straight run as they were hatched from their own flock's eggs. I'd really love to purchase 3 of them but I'm a bit scared of ending up with mostly males as we already have a drake. Especially since I know nobody really likes to get a free drake to add to their flock so I'd be stuck with too many drakes and I don't want to be forced to butcher them.

    What are the chances of me getting 2 males from buying 3 ducklings?
     
  2. Jpat

    Jpat Free Ranging

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    i got 6 males from 6 ducklings before

    Someone sold them to me as straight run but they definitly sexed them and made an idiot out of me

    its a chance we all take and it always comes down to a hard decision. But if i had the chance to get chocolate runners ide get them
     
  3. KikiDeAnime

    KikiDeAnime Songster

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    Then maybe I shouldn't buy any
     
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  4. Jpat

    Jpat Free Ranging

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    ide get them but thats me
     
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  5. Ratchnick

    Ratchnick Chirping

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    50-50 ratio only holds true over a large sample size, like thousands of birds. I read a post where 36 eggs were hatched from the incubator and 32 of them were male. Certainly a risk you end up with all male. Since the sample size is so small i'm not sure if you can math out your chances
     
  6. Peepsi

    Peepsi Songster

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    :goodpost:

    Yes, exactly. It is very likely that a straight run of three birds, or six birds, or nine birds...will all be males due to the small sample size.

    It's like flipping a coin. You have 50/50 odds of hitting heads or tails, but it's possible to flip a coin 10 times, and get all heads. The more you flip, the more even the odds will be and you'll start seeing a 50/50 distribution.

    So if you don't want to risk a male, or you don't have a plan for extra males, then don't take the risk with a straight run.
     
  7. KikiDeAnime

    KikiDeAnime Songster

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    Alright, thank you.
    Guess I'm sticking to my current 2 duck flock for now. Luckily our drake has been leaving our female alone.
     
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  8. FluffTheDuck

    FluffTheDuck Duck love is recognizable in any language

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    Like @Peepsi said, it’s a 50/50 chance. Since you have one male and one female you could get them, and if there is more males then females you can have an all drake flock. I bought 9 ducks, 3 died, three turned out males, three turned out females. Now I’m hatching blue cayugas, waiting till I can voice sex them, take 2+ females and sell the rest. You really never know. I’ve heard some say, in hatcheries, they just put almost all males in straight run. In my personal experience I ALWAYS get 5+ males out of 7 if I get straight run. That’s why I always order them sexed. :)
     
  9. KikiDeAnime

    KikiDeAnime Songster

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    Unfortunately we can't have an all drake flock. My parents have only agreed on me getting 2 females only :( We actually wouldn't even have ducks at all but we do because I rescued our drake as a duckling and I knew he'd need a female buddy so we have 1 female currently.
     
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  10. KikiDeAnime

    KikiDeAnime Songster

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    The lady selling the ducklings has assured me that she will take back any males and either give me my money back or trade for females if she keeps some so I'm going to buy the ducklings
     
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