Yes, that would be a way to conclusively settle the matter. A chick means the egg was fertile.
Yes, having too many chickens would be a good reason to avoid hatching more right now :)
Some bantam roosters definitely do manage to mate with full-sized hens. If you incubate eggs and they develop chicks and hatch, then you know they were fertile.
I know some people say they can tell by looking at eggs, but I can't, so unfortunately I can't help there.
(I understand the idea...