Confusing predation problem.

Matt Armstrong wrote: So to me, the evidence according to available sources seems most consistent with red fox, but again I'm not an expert and I could be totally wrong.

You're likely totally right.

So, my question is pretty complicated. First, based on the evidence given, what does it sound like I'm dealing with? Second, what are some good ways of dealing with it that don't involve penning the chickens up? Third, what are some good ways of dealing with it that may in fact involve penning them up- are are downsides to keeping chickens in pens? Are there particular things I need to do to keep certain predators from breaching a pen? Are there any tips for trapping predators that I may be unaware of? How may I determine for certain what's killing all of my chickens? I'd appreciate any help I could get. I don't particularly like having to shoot animals.

Without penning them up your choices are pretty much limited to buying the preds lots of buckets of the Colonel's fried, trapping/poisoning/shooting all comers (not a perfect solution given your being inclined not to throw lead) - however, even though more preds will come, this approach does decrease the overall frequency of predation in free range flocks (a cold snap in April killing off young coons is much more efficient...).

Some believe that a chicken run represents a pred's easy platter (all in one place and no where to go but down the hatch). This is not so, a poorly thought out and constructed run merely represents that much less range a pred. need cover.

If the run is large enough and secure, there is no downside to keeping the chooks penned up (let them range when you are around to supervise). There are many good threads about predator-proofing coops and runs.

If you devote as much thought to planning and constructing a predator proof run and coop as you have to analyzing the sources of potential/realized predation you should have the safest chooks in your county.

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