50°F partly cloudy and calm
4:00 p.m.
4:00 p.m.
What's the temperature where you are???
- Thread starter mamabird
- Start date
35 at 5:44 PM. Rain/freezing precip on the way.
22nd January 10a.m. Grey glare. Wind is Light 11.1 / 20.4 S, Hg 52%, Temp is 21.7c / 71.1F, headed for 23c / 73F. Cloudy. Medium chance of showers, most likely this evening. Winds southerly 25 to 35 km/h, tending southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the evening.
Moon is 86.6%
Many farmers sent their livestock to saleyards due to an El Niño forecast. (ABC Rural: Anthony Pancia)
Livestock producers are claiming that unreliable long-term weather forecasts have played havoc with sheep and cattle prices, after farmers made large business decisions based on media reports.
Wet conditions surprised farmers in some parts of Victoria because the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) declared an El Niño event in September, which created expectations of hotter and drier weather to come.
Scott Herrman, a sheep and cattle producer from Hamilton in south-west Victoria, said after a dry spring and the declaration, he sold livestock.
He now wishes he hadn't.
"It put a lot of pressure onto decision making about whether to hold or sell and I think a lot of people were gun shy on holding stock and didn't want to put expensive grain down cheap mouths," he said.
"Personally, we got to November and prices weren't great and the weather forecast wasn't brilliant, so I made the decision to sell steers I probably would have kept, with the benefit of hindsight."
Since the rain, sheep and cattle markets have spiked, with recent lamb sales increasing by up to $50 per animal.
Mr Herrman said decisions to sell based on the expectation of a hot, dry summer had cost many farmers a lot of money.
"Steers I sold for a bit over $2 a kilogram, whereas now they'd be close to $3, so there's probably a dollar a kilogram just on the cattle side of things," he said.
"Crossbred ewes for a period were making between $20 and $30 a head, now heavy sheep are making well over $100.
"If we'd known the weather would do what it did, we would have kept them."
"I've got no doubt it's a difficult job forecasting forward, and I think sometimes people fall into the trap of taking it for gospel, so I think there's going to be a lot more caution about that going forward," he said.
Edit: While the BOM's models late last year were showing increasing rainfall for December and January, that message largely did not get through to the public, leading to a review of how forecasts are communicated.
Moon is 86.6%
Farmers frustrated after destocking following BOM's incorrect El Niño forecast
2 hours 42 mins ago
Many farmers sent their livestock to saleyards due to an El Niño forecast. (ABC Rural: Anthony Pancia)
Livestock producers are claiming that unreliable long-term weather forecasts have played havoc with sheep and cattle prices, after farmers made large business decisions based on media reports.
Wet conditions surprised farmers in some parts of Victoria because the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) declared an El Niño event in September, which created expectations of hotter and drier weather to come.
Scott Herrman, a sheep and cattle producer from Hamilton in south-west Victoria, said after a dry spring and the declaration, he sold livestock.
He now wishes he hadn't.
"It put a lot of pressure onto decision making about whether to hold or sell and I think a lot of people were gun shy on holding stock and didn't want to put expensive grain down cheap mouths," he said.
"Personally, we got to November and prices weren't great and the weather forecast wasn't brilliant, so I made the decision to sell steers I probably would have kept, with the benefit of hindsight."
Decisions prove costly
Lamb prices for spring 2023 dropped almost half of what they were fetching the year before, with reports of sheep being sold for $1 each, while the main cattle value indicator dropped about 20 per cent over the same time.Since the rain, sheep and cattle markets have spiked, with recent lamb sales increasing by up to $50 per animal.
Mr Herrman said decisions to sell based on the expectation of a hot, dry summer had cost many farmers a lot of money.
"Steers I sold for a bit over $2 a kilogram, whereas now they'd be close to $3, so there's probably a dollar a kilogram just on the cattle side of things," he said.
"Crossbred ewes for a period were making between $20 and $30 a head, now heavy sheep are making well over $100.
"If we'd known the weather would do what it did, we would have kept them."
BOM to blame?
Mr Herrman said he did not hold the BOM solely responsible and expected people would consider long-term forecasts with more caution in the future."I've got no doubt it's a difficult job forecasting forward, and I think sometimes people fall into the trap of taking it for gospel, so I think there's going to be a lot more caution about that going forward," he said.
Edit: While the BOM's models late last year were showing increasing rainfall for December and January, that message largely did not get through to the public, leading to a review of how forecasts are communicated.
Last edited:
No dripping the faucets tonight 39 feels 36 Sunday and morning walking forecast
14° last night 17° tonight
LTAY1946
Chicken Wrangler
33° and feels like 36°
14*F at 8:05 pm
28°F mostly clear and breezy
1:12 a.m.
1:12 a.m.
LTAY1946
Chicken Wrangler
31° and feels like 33°
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