Ayam Cemani's - The Worlds Most Expensive Chicken - A Way To Retirement? Or An Overpriced Chicken On

[massoumicyrus]

I had a long talk with Ricky White, who is one of the people who is friends with Astin Marie, and got her Ayam Cemani's originally before Greenfire Farms created the media buzz that led to AC's being $2,000 for a juvenile pair.

I've tried to conduct a somewhat extensive research around AC's and have found the following:
I know of Astin Marie who was an original AC breeder years before -- who has 2 reputable friends who got her AC's and also breed/sell them. The difference between A.M. and her 2 friends is that they are willing to sell 6 month old AC's that are ready to breed for the same price as Greenfire will sell you a pair of 3 month olds. Also, Rick White is a really nice guy based off of our conversation and has extensive knowledge of the breed.
Greenfire - which seems to be a year or less in to importing and breeding AC's.
And, I've heard some rumors that a previous curator of The Smithsonian was able to import his own AC's due to relations he had with people in Indonesia.

Here's where I become suspicious of AC's, their future, and what I've heard from breeders which makes me reluctant about the breed.
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So, let's say that you buy 2 AC's at 6 months old at present day. You pay $2,000-$2,500.
>Now you have a hen who will lay between 200-350 eggs per year. Take the mid-point as 275.
>>Now let's say that you incubate every single egg and have an 80% hatch rate. Now, disregarding the fact that there should be a compound variable since the chickens that hatch after day 21 are going to within 6 months also be laying ---- you now have 220 AC chickens.
>>>The going rate on the market is $800 for a 3 month old AC, and $1,000-$1,500 depending if you can get an AC which is both older or of better AC attributes.
>>>>Now let's say that you sell for under market rate and simply sell your AC's for $500, just so that you can sell them for a great deal at less than the market rate.
>>>>>So, now you've made let's say $40,000 +/- (with this figure not being disputed since you have an added variable of your chicks that you hatched on day 21 hatching their own chicks after 6 months + 21 days, with a variable that you have to account to cut(cull) for the ones that don't have good features, or the 5% that aren't born with the black trait(+ deaths, but with adequate pen space, a minimal concern).

So, now I'm supposed to believe that for every $2,000 I spend today - 365 days from now that can be $40,000.

Furthermore, vendors theorize that the AC market is going to have a price schedule as follows:
This year - $1,000 per AC
Next year - $750 per AC
Year After - $500 per AC
Year After - $250 per AC
Year After - (Speculatory)

What I do know based off of some research about AC's domestic to Asia, Indonesia, and more notably their island of origin Java, where they were first discovered as jungle chicken - is that at market:
Grade A (Perfect black features) -- Sell in Indonesia for $150 --- Their own domestic country
Grade B - Sells for around $75
Grade C - is culled/food and thus null.

Some people in BYC have come out and said that raising AC's isn't going to be profitable, since you're going to have to cull excessively. Simultaneously, the multitude of AC eggs sold on Ebay purchased by many people with a lack of knowledge are actually AC roosters - bred with other dark breeds, and their eggs sold for $100. (Their eggs, $100). Let's just say that eggs even sell for $50, now, instead of a farm chicken that you can't sell for more than $20 even at a farmers market - cooked, is magically $100 - as an egg.

So, what's missing?

Something about the Ayam Cemani story is missing, and I don't know what that is. I do believe that the reason for the current price is a reflection of the fact that media hype has elevated the price. But, let's ignore that.

Let's say that the following is true (just for the sake of argument):
You buy 3 roosters and 7 hens on Day 1.
Over 1 year you hatch in excess of 1,400 AC's with --- Let's just say 700 that you choose to sell ---
at let's say a price point of $500 each. That's $350,000.00 USD
at a price of even $100, the current price of an egg on ebay --- you've still turned $10,000 into $75,000.
This, juxtaposed to the fact that the average American family makes $35,000 per year.

Are they the Goose that lays the Golden Egg?

I am very much interested to hear people's opinions.

Thanks,
Cyrus

 

[mtngirl35]

Please don't think I'm being rude because I am just honestly curious and I have some questions. 1. Why is this chicken so expensive? 2 .Wouldn't a chicken that expensive have a fairly small market? I only ask because if they can easily be bred then they won't be too rare. Is there some appeal to this bird that I'm missing?

 

[massoumicyrus]

They are completely black: black feathers (tint of green), eyes, comb, feet, nails, mouth, meat, bones - dark(er) blood, but cream colored eggs.

They're so expensive because they're so new to the states, my understanding is once every few years people go crazy for a new breed, then it works its price down.

Here's a link to Greenfire selling them for $2,000 per juvenile pair: http://greenfirefarms.com/store/category/chickens/ayam-cemani/ (down from $2,500 previously) --- 3 months old --- Elsewhere you can purchase 6 month old AC's for $1,000-1,250 USD each.

 

[darkbluespace]

From what I understand, the birds lay a fraction of that number of eggs a year, 20 to 30 every six months or something like that. They haven't been bred to be prolific layers.

 

[Beer can]

If I had money to blow I would buy some, just to raise for myself. I think the price will come down.

GFF American Bresse (they were nonexistant in the US) are available all over, hatching eggs cheap online. I found a breeder not far from me who sells 12 week old breeding trios of White Breese for $125. GFF sells them $35 each, for chicks you have to feed to that size and hopefully none die, and you have to pay shipping xtra and minimum 15. There was a website Barret Valley Farms that sells Bresse cheap in bulk, cant get on their link now though??
When GFF's Ayam Cemani's were all over the news as the "Lamborghini of Chickens", the owner did mention in one article that he expects the price to come down and be more affordable as the breed gets established and breeders and population goes up.

 

[massoumicyrus]

For those already knowledgeable about AC's and FM birds ~ how extensive is culling?

Let's say, how many out of 100 do you have to cull out? And, out of those 100, what % are viable for sale at what x% rate of usual?

I have heard that 5% of AC hatchlings turn out to not have FM.

 

[massoumicyrus]

Beer Can - What do you think of the schedule that I heard:
Furthermore, vendors theorize that the AC market is going to have a price schedule as follows:
This year - $1,000 per AC
Next year - $750 per AC
Year After - $500 per AC
Year After - $250 per AC
Year After - (Speculatory)

If you disagree with that schedule, what schedule do you foresee, and why?

 

[massoumicyrus]

DarkBlueSpace - One of my two AC hens lays 1 egg per day.
Also, another breeder said - that half of his AC's lay once per day. While others lay only once every 2-3 days.

 

[mtngirl35]

They are completely black: black feathers (tint of green), eyes, comb, feet, nails, mouth, meat, bones - dark(er) blood, but cream colored eggs.

They're so expensive because they're so new to the states, my understanding is once every few years people go crazy for a new breed, then it works its price down.

Here's a link to Greenfire selling them for $2,000 per juvenile pair: http://greenfirefarms.com/store/category/chickens/ayam-cemani/ (down from $2,500 previously) --- 3 months old --- Elsewhere you can purchase 6 month old AC's for $1,000-1,250 USD each.

I checked out the website and I gotta say they are beautiful birds.

 

[massoumicyrus]

Quote:
I personally find it to be an odd-hobby for people with too much money. I've owned most exotic breeds, then after the raccoons decided to eat all of them, gave up on chickens. Now that I've moved back to my ranch, I was so bored being out in the country that I decided I had to get "the most expensive chicken in the world" just to amuse myself. It turns out it was Ayam Cemani's, and now I strangely feel like I'm doing the work of a Nazi Doctor.... I find myself looking at them, seeing any imperfection as a cause for execution.... It's a strange breed to take on.g