I import and export so I have a limited knowledge of these things, at least in some markets.
First, if I bring in a container of MDF from China into the Philippines it costs around $9 per 3/4" sheet. China has subsidies that pay all of the internal costs, shipping from factory to the pier, loading it on the boat, paying any warfage fees, shipping it to the Philippines. I just pay the negotiated price of $9 per sheet x say 470 sheets. Once it arrives in Manila, I'll pay around $3000 for import fees, wharfage fees, trucking fees, to shift the 40' container around 90 miles. If I was not in a freeport zone with a lot of restrictions but the ability to import tariff free for manufacturing and re export, I would pay another 35% in tariff and VAT. Call it $15 per sheet landed costs.
If the Philippines increased their tariffs on Chinese goods, my supplier would either lower the per sheet cost to remain competitive or they would lose my business, I'd buy from Thailand instead. Landed at the pier price is what I would consider.
Now, I take that MDF, turn it into cabinet parts, then ship it to the U.S., I would pay another $3000 in local trucking, permits and fees, wharfage fees, inspection fees and the like to get it on a ship. Then ocean freight might add $2000 to Long Beach CA, another $2000 roughly to get it rail-roaded to Dallas and then trucked into Oklahoma. My original cost was $4230 plus the $3000 importing costs, then another $7000 getting it to Oklahoma. Roughly doubled to under $30 per sheet and change.
Add around 4.5% use tax, now compare that to the $39.00 per sheet (at the time of this transaction) plus almost 10% state sales tax.. Under $30 er sheet versus $45.85 for the locally sourced MDF sheet.
I left out the U.S. importing fees because they are almost non existent (at the time of that transaction). $250 roughly plus an annual, no limit bond, usable for one year going to U.S. Customs, good for as much as I want to import that year.
Say the orange man puts the same tariff on incoming Philippines exports as they put on our U.S. imports into their country, I pay 35% (maybe less if they don't count the VAT tax which is similar in some ways to our sales tax) on the roughly $14,000 and cost. Tack on another $5000, my cost is right where the U.S. bought MDF sheets would be.
But, two things. First, the tariffs would be short lived, the Philippines would be forced to drop their tariffs or see their export trade collapse. That would drop around $7500 in costs off the total landed cost, roughly $15 per sheet.
Second, I was able to process that MDF into cabinet parts using a loaded labor cost (overhead/labor/taxes) of under $2.50 per hour.
So, commodities like grain and MDF sheets can be sourced from different countries but what matters is the landed costs, not the shipping costs or the tariffs or the original cost, the landed costs. A country like the Philippines charges boat loads of tariffs and VAT tax, external revenue coming from companies outside the Philippines. Only paid by the citizens IF they cannot manufacture the product in their own country. And it only gets that money if their trade partners or stupid or were using trade policy for other reasons. Clue there....
For the U.S., that reason was the cold war. Our government threw the American worker and manufacturer under the bus and allowed other countries to import into the U.S. for nearly zero in costs and tariff or tax in return for standing on our side, sometimes in front of us, in the cold war. Our jobs and manufacturing and the massive supply chains moved overseas.
Now the cold war is over with only the war mongers, RINO republicans and the Democrat Party still pushing war for business reasons and to skin out bribes and allow corruption to fill their coffers or to pay their allies.
So, feed prices might go up due to tariffs for minerals and supplements having tariffs placed on them, but eventually those tariffs will be gone along with the tariffs placed on U.S. grain shipped overseas. Grain prices will drop during the trade war, then stabilize back to normal once the competing tariffs have been removed. If the tariffs don't drop, then manufactures such as myself will shift manufacturing back to the U.S., like I did at the start of Covid simply due to outrageous container shipping costs and delay at port adding thousands of dollars to the port fees and costs (demurrage).
What do we do as flock owners? Stock up with enough feed to last six months, assuming it won't go rancid and commercial rations do do that. Or do what the big boys do and buy future contracts to hedge your feed costs. You aren't doing that I will guess. So stock up with whole grains that won't go rancid.
Eventually the tariff wars will end, more free trade will happen, but the balance of trade will be more fair. I can ship in cabinet parts, maybe feeders at some point, but this time I can refill that container with Oklahoma wheat or Arkansas timber. I'm already paying for that 40' container to be returned to Long Beach, if the Philippines tariffs on U.S. products go away I'll make more shipping stuff into the Philippines than I do shipping stuff to the U.S.. Costs fall, making everything more affordable and I can sell more cabinets and more feeders due to the cheaper, more affordable price.
