Bird Flu?

[chickens 4 life]

The reason they are still sending chicks through the mail is because it's considered safe. They are not hatched in an area with adults and hatchery is NPIP certified.

Ok! That makes more sense.

 

[User635240]

Since they're day old chicks, are you keeping them in an inside brooder or hoping to put them with an existing flock immediately? *I* wouldn't be afraid of day old chicks being shipped to me, infecting my existing flock with h5n1. Avian Influenza kill chickens quickly so the hatchery would be aware if the farms that owned the parent stock had confirmed cases of H5N1, before the chicks hatched.

Personally I'm suspicious of the 'bird flu' reports. The USDA has been diagnosing them with PCR tests, which are notorious for false positives. I've read and heard stories from locals how the USDA has been paying farmers over market rate to destroy their crops or not plant at all. I suspect this bird flu is part of an engineered famine.

 

[HeatherKellyB]

Personally I'm suspicious of the 'bird flu' reports. The USDA has been diagnosing them with PCR tests, which are notorious for false positives. I've read and heard stories from locals how the USDA has been paying farmers over market rate to destroy their crops or not plant at all. I suspect this bird flu is part of an engineered famine.

Funny you mention this. Recently I've been back and forth with uncertainty and suspicion myself.

 

[raingarden]

"engineered famine"? Really? If you want people to believe a conspiracy theory then don't go so far afield.

 

[User635240]

"engineered famine"? Really? If you want people to believe a conspiracy theory then don't go so far afield.

Inflated grocery prices, reduced availability to fertilizer, and the USDA's actions to reduce food supply are not theories. Google 'Holodomor' if you want to learn about engineered famines.

 

[raingarden]

Inflated grocery prices, reduced availability to fertilizer, and the USDA's actions to reduce food supply are not theories. Google 'Holodomor' if you want to learn about engineered famines.

So, you equate USDA farm subsidies with Joseph Stalin's attempt to starve soviet Ukrainians into submission and stomp out their independance movement? Yes, it is price control. No, it is not engineered famine.

 

[User635240]

So, you equate USDA farm subsidies with Joseph Stalin's attempt to starve soviet Ukrainians into submission and stomp out their independance movement? Yes, it is price control. No, it is not engineered famine.

I didn't write 'farm subsidies', and don't tell me what to write or not write. The USDA is paying farmers in my area (the Midwest) to destroy their crops, and harassing those who don't comply. That reduces food supply and increases prices. Definitely not price control. It's basic economics, just reversed to cause a food crisis in the US. Just make sure you have enough food stored up for your family when grocery bills get to $1000/mo.

 

[U_Stormcrow]

USDA programs to support prices by encouraging farmers either not to plant, or to destroy crops are as old as the 1930s. Whether we are talking about the Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1933, or the very predictable actions of some in response to expansion of the Federal Conservation Reserve Program, this is nothing new. Since BYC is not a place for politics, I'll leave my opinion out regarding FDR, threatened Court packing, and the things SCotUS found tolerable at that time.

AI hits the US periodically, as do other livestock diseases. In the past two years, we've been watching several strains of AI move all thru Europe, North Africa, and the Near East. The current strain in the US appears to be the result of annual migrations binging largely US and Canadian based waterfowl into contact with largely European waterfowl at the extremes of their seasonal feeding grounds. Entirely predictable, and certainly with historical precedent.

No vast conspiracy needed.

But while we are talking history, happy well-fed populations don't overthrow governments as a matter of historical note. Unhappy, well-fed populations don't often either, though recently (since the 1950s) they have voted in ways which can substantially alter the scope of government over time - not just here in the US. Unhappy, starving populations do tend to overthrow governments (or at least attempt it), typically violently. Its a strange sort of conspiracy of those in power that aims to overthrow the systems that allow them to remain in power.

In a world of increasingly global trade, high speed transportion, and cheap bulk refrigeration and dehydration methods, engineered shortages are difficult to create and almost impossible to maintain or impose externally.

If "They" want to control us, all "They" need to do is provide panem et circenses. "Bread and Circuses" for those who don't know their Juvenal.

Appears to me someone has spent enough time at the circenses already...

 

[U_Stormcrow]

Funny you mention this. Recently I've been back and forth with uncertainty and suspicion myself.

Out of respect for our prior interactions, I will attempt to answer the "why PCR, with its known false positives" question, which is a serious one.

Start here:
Good general overview

13 cases out of 650, particular PCR test - recommendations to improve testing (2006)

Suggestion:
The best test (virus isolation) is expensive, time consuming, and limited both by facilities capable of doing the testing, and resources for conducting the tests - a backlog is inevitable in the case of wide area (such as multi-state) testing. Due to the lethality of HPAI, delays in diagnosis have real world consequences on the spread of the disease (and one can easily imagine a suspect flock dying from HPAI LONG before VI testing is complete). In the interim, such a suspect flock would need to be kept under strict quarantine, not only to prevent its spread thru routine business, but also to isolate from wild carriers of the disease (waterfowl, starlings, etc).

PCR testing is fast, cheap, and easily conducted by a large number of public and private labs. False negatives from the test are of greater concern (due to viral mutations) than false positives, though false positives are known to occur (see study linked above).

The costs of a false positive - from the Gov't point of view, is quite minor. A back yard flock or small scale poultry operation has negligible effect on the trade, whether in shell eggs, poultry for human consumption, or sale of live birds. Compensation may be available to the owner by the State, or by private insurance, but in any event is a small number - my own flock of birds is valued at less than $1,000, for instance. In the event of a large producer (such as the several million+ cullings), while this has some short term impact on industry, the cost remains small. Business Insurance is expected to cover the loss, most modern facilities can be shut down, sterilized, tented/closed, and subjected to high heat for an extended period, then begin new operations within a 10 - 14 day period. Against the total US poultry business, even a few million birds is a very small number.

The cost of a false negative, on the other hand, potentially allows exposure to a far greater number of birds than are present at a single facility, due to the chokepoints in the supply chain associated with processing prior to wholesale.

Thus, as a matter of risk management, a low false positive rate at a breeder or keeper facility is more acceptable than waiting on a more accurate test which requires more resources to manage (such as by establishing and maintaining a quarantine) while awaiting results, and ultimately provides no particular benefit on the national scale.

Finally, remember that it it the policy of the Gov't as declared by APHIS/USDA to destroy all tested cases of Influenza A H5Nx or H7Nx, whether they are HPAI H5N1 or otherwise - and has been for more than a decade.

 

[HeatherKellyB]

Out of respect for our prior interactions, I will attempt to answer the "why PCR, with its known false positives" question, which is a serious one.

Start here:
Good general overview

13 cases out of 650, particular PCR test - recommendations to improve testing (2006)

Suggestion:
The best test (virus isolation) is expensive, time consuming, and limited both by facilities capable of doing the testing, and resources for conducting the tests - a backlog is inevitable in the case of wide area (such as multi-state) testing. Due to the lethality of HPAI, delays in diagnosis have real world consequences on the spread of the disease (and one can easily imagine a suspect flock dying from HPAI LONG before VI testing is complete). In the interim, such a suspect flock would need to be kept under strict quarantine, not only to prevent its spread thru routine business, but also to isolate from wild carriers of the disease (waterfowl, starlings, etc).

PCR testing is fast, cheap, and easily conducted by a large number of public and private labs. False negatives from the test are of greater concern (due to viral mutations) than false positives, though false positives are known to occur (see study linked above).

The costs of a false positive - from the Gov't point of view, is quite minor. A back yard flock or small scale poultry operation has negligible effect on the trade, whether in shell eggs, poultry for human consumption, or sale of live birds. Compensation may be available to the owner by the State, or by private insurance, but in any event is a small number - my own flock of birds is valued at less than $1,000, for instance. In the event of a large producer (such as the several million+ cullings), while this has some short term impact on industry, the cost remains small. Business Insurance is expected to cover the loss, most modern facilities can be shut down, sterilized, tented/closed, and subjected to high heat for an extended period, then begin new operations within a 10 - 14 day period. Against the total US poultry business, even a few million birds is a very small number.

The cost of a false negative, on the other hand, potentially allows exposure to a far greater number of birds than are present at a single facility, due to the chokepoints in the supply chain associated with processing prior to wholesale.

Thus, as a matter of risk management, a low false positive rate at a breeder or keeper facility is more acceptable than waiting on a more accurate test which requires more resources to manage (such as by establishing and maintaining a quarantine) while awaiting results, and ultimately provides no particular benefit on the national scale.

Finally, remember that it it the policy of the Gov't as declared by APHIS/USDA to destroy all tested cases of Influenza A H5Nx or H7Nx, whether they are HPAI H5N1 or otherwise - and has been for more than a decade.

This is certainly not a matter of "believing in in Santa Claus" or anything like that for me. It was a mistake on my part to make such an unclear reply My apologies for not going into further detail. No matter what's went on before h5n1 came to the USA and what's gone on since, I believe as a backyard chicken keeper I still need to be vigilant with biosecurity and protect my flocks as best I can. Again, my apologies for being so unclear.