Quote:
What people often do not understand well is the mathematical probabilty of the percentages. Strictly speaking, those percentages are not the percentages that you will hatch of all chicks, but the percentages of chance for each chick. If you breed a small number of chicks, the overall percentages can vary dramatically. The more chicks you hatch, the more likely you will get closer to the predicted percentages. It is generally thought htat you need to hatch about 100 chicks to be able to have accurate percentages. Since you used 3 colours of chicks--that would be 300 chicks that you would need to hatch to be able to reliably expect the predicted percentages; 40 is a lot less than 300.
Since you had 40 chicks, lets assume each of your 5 hens had 8 eggs that hatched.
From the black hen you should have have 4 blues and 4 blacks.
From the two blue hens, you should have had 4 blacks, 8 blues and 4 splashes.
From the two splashes you should have had 8 blues and 8 splashes.
That adds up to 8 blacks, 20 blues and 12 splashes.
Since you hatched 2 black, 30 blues and 6 splashes, you really are not all that far off, despite having hatched 260 less than should give reliably accurate percentages
Note that you did follow the correct trend, of least #s of blacks and most #s of blues.
Exactly. If you breed 10 it's unlikely you'll get the suggested distribution of colours. If you breed 10,000 you almost certainly will.
That breeding chart demonstrates the genetic probability not reality. The reality of it all is what you actually get to hatch. The Andalusion Blue itself comes in a very broad range of color from a very light to very dark almost black shade of blue. Then you have your Black and Splash. We have been raising Blue Wheaton OE for several years and hatch over 1000 a year. Last year I think I had 4 that could actually be called Wheaton without any hint of blue breeding, and a handfull of Splash most of the hatch has always been Blue when breed Blue x Blue.
What people often do not understand well is the mathematical probabilty of the percentages. Strictly speaking, those percentages are not the percentages that you will hatch of all chicks, but the percentages of chance for each chick. If you breed a small number of chicks, the overall percentages can vary dramatically. The more chicks you hatch, the more likely you will get closer to the predicted percentages. It is generally thought htat you need to hatch about 100 chicks to be able to have accurate percentages. Since you used 3 colours of chicks--that would be 300 chicks that you would need to hatch to be able to reliably expect the predicted percentages; 40 is a lot less than 300.
Since you had 40 chicks, lets assume each of your 5 hens had 8 eggs that hatched.
From the black hen you should have have 4 blues and 4 blacks.
From the two blue hens, you should have had 4 blacks, 8 blues and 4 splashes.
From the two splashes you should have had 8 blues and 8 splashes.
That adds up to 8 blacks, 20 blues and 12 splashes.
Since you hatched 2 black, 30 blues and 6 splashes, you really are not all that far off, despite having hatched 260 less than should give reliably accurate percentages
Exactly. If you breed 10 it's unlikely you'll get the suggested distribution of colours. If you breed 10,000 you almost certainly will.
That breeding chart demonstrates the genetic probability not reality. The reality of it all is what you actually get to hatch. The Andalusion Blue itself comes in a very broad range of color from a very light to very dark almost black shade of blue. Then you have your Black and Splash. We have been raising Blue Wheaton OE for several years and hatch over 1000 a year. Last year I think I had 4 that could actually be called Wheaton without any hint of blue breeding, and a handfull of Splash most of the hatch has always been Blue when breed Blue x Blue.
