So how do you evaluate a hens production capabilities with out trap nesting?
A number of ways. Trap nesting is the best way. The best selection method is always the most direct path to the end result. You cannot possibly have a better method to select the best layers than positively knowing how many they lay. Then using sons from the best layers, and because there is always variability in the offspring, prove him by his offspring. Then emphasizing those males that have the best producing daughters. That is all easier said than done, but there is no better way.
I cannot trap nest. Instead I think in terms of point of lay, rate of lay, and length of lay. My birds are also in small enough groups that I can identify and remove the poorest producers. I count by pen. I do have one hand tied behind my back, in that I cannot effectively prove my males on this point alone. I have other concerns.
I can remove the lowest producers. Occasionally, I can identify the best producers and hope to be able to emphasize her and her sons. I have already removed the pullets that are tardy when compared to their hatch mates. I can also remove the hens that molt the earliest, take the longest to molt, are late to come back into lay, and are last to come back to full rate of lay as the days lengthen. This emphasizing the length of the laying year. It makes a difference.
Egg size and quality is the easiest. It is simply grading and weighing eggs. Not setting the smallest and poorest examples, and hoping to make incremental progress along the way. That means raising the standard along the way.
Any pullet or hen that I keep has already met a standard of sorts concerning type, color, and size. I am attempting to emphasize the better producers from this group.
The reality is that what I try to do is just a bit better than maintenance. You can expect some improvement, but only to a certain point. The reality is also that doing nothing at all is the surest and fastest way to go backwards.
If we know what they are producing, then we now whether or not we are going forward, backwards, or holding steady. If the birds are not bad layers, holding steady might be good enough.
None of this or other methods is difficult. It is just a process that goes along with the seasons.
Most lines or strains have a rate of lay that is acceptable. That is my experience. It is when you have birds that enjoy long seasonal breaks, take forever to come into lay, molt early, then take forever to molt, are slow to get going late into the winter etc. Then on top of it all, lay smaller eggs . . . When all of that is combined, they go from average layers to very poor layers. Personally, these birds are absolutely useless as production type fowl. I will not feed birds like this.
On the other hand, my expectations would be modified for ornamentals, ornamental varieties, or historic breeds that were never selected for this type of improvement. A lot of people keep many types of birds for many reasons. It is important to know what they are and why we have them. We need to be sober in our expectations.
It would be irrational to hope a Cubalaya could produce similarly to a Leghorn etc. That does not mean a Cubalaya does not have any value. It would be more interested in raising Cubalaya than most breeds out there. I would only try to realize birds as they were intended to be to begin with.