I need help with some chicken math, but not THAT kind of chicken math 
I'll be getting my first chickens next spring, building the coop now. I want to hatch them from eggs though. So I'm trying to figure out how many hatching eggs I need to order, how to factor in various risk factors, so that I can arrive at a target number of chickens. The things I can think of so far to factor in are:
- Some eggs may break during shipping
- Some eggs may not hatch
- Some chicks may die young
- Some will be roosters
I'm aiming for 3 hens and 1 rooster as the final flock. I know that there's a wide range of possible outcomes on any of those points... If I order 12 eggs I may end up with 12 chickens, or I may end up with 2... and pretty much any ratio of males to females... But still, can you guys give me some rough numbers to start with? How many eggs should I order? What's the rough likelihood of any of the above issues happening? (like, is it common for chicks to die young if you care for them well... etc.) I'll be ordering my eggs from Papa's Poultry, and he has a good track record of egg fertility and packing eggs well to prevent breakage, and sending extras.
Also, being that I will likely temporarily have more chickens than I aim for, exceeding the capacity of my coop, is it okay to start out with more, until I narrow it down to the target flock size (after finding out which are roosters), given that they'll be smaller when young so hopefully won't feel too packed...? My coop will be able to hold 8-9 full-size birds. I'll be getting orpingtons.
Thanks!

I'll be getting my first chickens next spring, building the coop now. I want to hatch them from eggs though. So I'm trying to figure out how many hatching eggs I need to order, how to factor in various risk factors, so that I can arrive at a target number of chickens. The things I can think of so far to factor in are:
- Some eggs may break during shipping
- Some eggs may not hatch
- Some chicks may die young
- Some will be roosters
I'm aiming for 3 hens and 1 rooster as the final flock. I know that there's a wide range of possible outcomes on any of those points... If I order 12 eggs I may end up with 12 chickens, or I may end up with 2... and pretty much any ratio of males to females... But still, can you guys give me some rough numbers to start with? How many eggs should I order? What's the rough likelihood of any of the above issues happening? (like, is it common for chicks to die young if you care for them well... etc.) I'll be ordering my eggs from Papa's Poultry, and he has a good track record of egg fertility and packing eggs well to prevent breakage, and sending extras.
Also, being that I will likely temporarily have more chickens than I aim for, exceeding the capacity of my coop, is it okay to start out with more, until I narrow it down to the target flock size (after finding out which are roosters), given that they'll be smaller when young so hopefully won't feel too packed...? My coop will be able to hold 8-9 full-size birds. I'll be getting orpingtons.
Thanks!
I've settled on orpingtons, because of their fame as friendly, docile, kid-friendly chickens. My chickens will be family pets for the most part. And since they'll all be orpingtons, I wanted some variety and different colors... that's all... but everybody else seems to be focused on buffs and not much else.
They are my favorite chicken as well. They are very gentle and beautiful birds. They lay an egg nearly every day of the year. And yes, the colors! I have Australorps (black orpingtons), Buff and now Lavender Orpingtons. And yes, I had my eggs shipped across country because I wanted Orpingtons. Wish I had known about Papa's Poultry. 
And by that I mean your kids will fall in love with him.
That's another thing I want to teach my kids... Appreciate where your food comes from. It's not just a sealed package at the store, it's something's life. So eating some of the chickens will need to be part of the deal (mostly because hatching means extra roosters and I'll just have to cull... but it comes with a teachable moment).
