I don't know if anyone can give you a good formula for this. Generally speaking, 50% hatch rate on shipped hatching eggs is good.
Where is Papa's Poultry? I tried looking it up and found one in CA. That is a long way from you. I ordered hatching eggs from Florida and out of 13 eggs, I had one chick hatch. They were packed very well, and I allowed them to rest 24 hours. My incubator was working well (it was new). I think the issue is they were jostled around too much in shipping. It took USPS 5 days to get them to me via Priority Mail.
My one hatched chick is most likely a pullet, and thank goodness for that 13th egg. haha
My next question is, why do you want a rooster if you are planning on limited flock? Do you have a particular need for fertilized eggs? Normally you need about 10-12 hens for 1 rooster, although I have heard of people who had success with fewer hens. If he is particularly active he could really tear up your hens by over mating.
My general advice would be to find a hatchery closer to you, and then get at least 12 eggs. If you end up with too many chickens (I strongly doubt it would be 12) you can grow them large enough to be a nice dinner and cull the excess birds. If it were me planning a flock of 4, I would want all hens.
Good luck!
I’ll definitely post pictures when it’s done. I have a build progress thread going, I’ll post there when it’s done.
