Well this is an interesting thread.
Are we in a recession? We will not know for six months or so. A recession is two quarters of negative growth. We never know we are in a recession officially until it is almost over.
I know we all feel that it is definitely getting tougher out there. It seems more like stagflation, something we haven't experienced since the 70's. Slowing economic growth at the same time as rising prices. Rising prices (inflation) is usually caused be rising economic growth, or an overheating economy. The current increase in prices is being driven by oil, not fast economic growth. It's external, so there is nothing the government can really do about it, at least in the short term.
As far as gas prices, well we are getting the gas prices we deserve. It was kind of funny to me, President Bush going to Saudi Arabia begging them to increase oil production. Charles Shumer, the other Senator from NY, wants to penalize the Saudis, by not selling them a billion dollars worth of arms unless they increase their oil production by 1 million barrels a day. This is the way I see that, we don't want to pump our own oil out of the ground, ie the Artic National Wildlife Refuge, and 85% of our off shore reserves, because we want to preserve our pristine wilderness and we don't want anybodys fat a-- sitting on the beach to see an off shore rig. No, we want you to pump more of your oil to decrease its value because that would be better for us. Oh, by the way, we can't live within our means either, please keep loaning our money we give your for oil, back to us please. Charles Shumer, voted against drilling in the Artic Wildlife Preserve, but now he wants to blame the Saudis for our problems.
Remember when GM came out with the new brand the Geo, back in the early 90's. Geo Metro, got 50 mpg. They went out of business because nobody wanted small cars that were good on gas. The market is taking care of that now, people are buy old Metros with a blue book value of $1000 fixing them up, and selling them for $7,000. Meanwhile, you can't give away a SUV. I'm sure Hummer isn't doing very well either.
Gas prices will not be going back down to $1.50 per gallon, ever. The biggest cause of the current situaltion with gas, is the rising demand in China and India. We've been guzzling gas for years, and now their economies are growing and their developing middle classses want cars too. That is the bulk of the current rise, I'd say to around$3.00 per gallon. From $3-$4, that's just speculators driving up the price to make a buck. They will get there's soon though.
I may sound like a pessimist, actually I'm quite the optimist. We put a man on the moon, we can produce a car that will get 60 mpg, and it will not be a hybrid. The market is creating the demand.