Ended Guess When BYC Will Reach 475,000 Members!

[casportpony]

9/22/22 7:00 am

 

[casportpony]

9/20/2022 10am

@Missa4848, So sorry, @AmeraucanaHank claimed that date and time back on page 17. Please guess again.

 

[Kiki]

Hey there! Your guess didn't post.
Which date and time did you want?

 

[Kiki]

So sorry, @Duckpip claimed that date and time back on page 8. Please guess again.

View attachment 3262251

@Missa4848, So sorry, @AmeraucanaHank claimed that date and time back on page 17. Please guess again.
View attachment 3262269

Y'all see how nice @casportpony is for telling you that your original guess didn't count?

 

[AmeraucanaHank]

@Missa4848, So sorry, @AmeraucanaHank claimed that date and time back on page 17. Please guess again.
View attachment 3262269

 

[Cry86]

Cry86 10-02-2022 8:00pm

 

[bgmathteach]

Day	Date	Time	Count
Thursday	9/15/2022	9:29	474,591
Friday	9/16/2022	9:40	474,622

31 in the last 24 hours and there are now 378 to go!

____
31 / 378 = ~ 12.2 days, or approximately 12 days 5 hours from when that last person registered. That assumes, of course, that registrations are evenly spread across the day/24 hour period, AND that that previous 24 hour period is a good representation of registrations on any day. (note, that value above is rounded to the nearest hour, as per the rules!)

However, I had already done a rough calculation based on @casportpony 's initial post ( looking at day and time), and when I logged in to guess (checking the # of members then), and the # of registrations per day is clearly not linear (it averaged 22 new members per day then). If someone has an idea of the regression line of registrations over the year, they could easily calculate to within a 24 hour period! I will say, based on the 470,000 member contest, being within 24 hours could possibly get you in the top 4!!!!

Okay, before everyone's eye completely glaze over, I'll show myself out.

P.S. I've giving everyone a not so subtle hint ( or set of hints????) I should probably amend my guess given this new data...but I'll just leave it be. After all, statistics is always a 'look backward' to estimate the future...so I'm well aware that while it is usually our best option, it is also always only our 'best educated guess'

 

[Duckpip]

____
31 / 378 = ~ 12.2 days, or approximately 12 days 5 hours from when that last person registered. That assumes, of course, that registrations are evenly spread across the day/24 hour period, AND that that previous 24 hour period is a good representation of registrations on any day. (note, that value above is rounded to the nearest hour, as per the rules!)

However, I had already done a rough calculation based on @casportpony 's initial post ( looking at day and time), and when I logged in to guess (checking the # of members then), and the # of registrations per day is clearly not linear (it averaged 22 new members per day then). If someone has an idea of the regression line of registrations over the year, they could easily calculate to within a 24 hour period! I will say, based on the 470,000 member contest, being within 24 hours could possibly get you in the top 4!!!!

Okay, before everyone's eye completely glaze over, I'll show myself out.

P.S. I've giving everyone a not so subtle hint ( or set of hints????) I should probably amend my guess given this new data...but I'll just leave it be. After all, statistics is always a 'look backward' to estimate the future...so I'm well aware that while it is usually our best option, it is also always only our 'best educated guess'

 

[bgmathteach]

Took

Gorgeous bird - what breed is it??

 

[R2elk]

____
31 / 378 = ~ 12.2 days, or approximately 12 days 5 hours from when that last person registered. That assumes, of course, that registrations are evenly spread across the day/24 hour period, AND that that previous 24 hour period is a good representation of registrations on any day. (note, that value above is rounded to the nearest hour, as per the rules!)

However, I had already done a rough calculation based on @casportpony 's initial post ( looking at day and time), and when I logged in to guess (checking the # of members then), and the # of registrations per day is clearly not linear (it averaged 22 new members per day then). If someone has an idea of the regression line of registrations over the year, they could easily calculate to within a 24 hour period! I will say, based on the 470,000 member contest, being within 24 hours could possibly get you in the top 4!!!!

Okay, before everyone's eye completely glaze over, I'll show myself out.

P.S. I've giving everyone a not so subtle hint ( or set of hints????) I should probably amend my guess given this new data...but I'll just leave it be. After all, statistics is always a 'look backward' to estimate the future...so I'm well aware that while it is usually our best option, it is also always only our 'best educated guess'

Unfortunately it isn't that simple.