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I don't think there is anything wrong with my logic. The U.S. population has doubled in that time frame, yet productivity of layer hens has gone up greatly while per capita consumption has dropped.
Let's compare to the dairy industry. In 1950, there were 3.5 million dairies in the U.S., by 1970 that number was down to 650,000, currently there are 65,000 dairies. Yet, from 1950 to now, the herd size has declined from 17 million cows to around 9 million now, due to increased productivity.
Looking at the layer industry, egg production was largely decentralized in 1950 with millions of producers. By the mid '80s there were 2500 companies with 75,000 hens or more. Currently there are around 190 companies in the U.S. with 75,000 or more hens (many with millions of hens). These 190 companies comprise about 95% of the egg production in the U.S., mostly consolidated in five states.
U.S. egg production uses about 280,000,000 layer hens, just under one hen for every person in the U.S. Using the 65,000 remaining dairy farms as a baseline number (just for the heck of it), that equates to only 4000 some hens per farm, not much larger than what I keep here using fairly traditional methods. As I said, there are hundreds of thousands of small farms lying fallow or being used for recreational land, and there are hundreds of thousands of people who would like to make a living at farming.
I don't buy the argument that traditional methods won't feed the population. There is more than enough productive land to handle decentralized, smaller operations.
You are right about the economics of such though. It is very hard for the smallholder to compete in today's marketplace. The producer with the cheapest, most efficient production wins. The only way around it is to ditch the free market and practice supply management with producer quotas and regulation.
The only thing with haveing 4,000 hens is what do you do with the 3,000+ eggs Most Households can not hand wash or process 3,000 eggs a day. They would need egg handling equipment to take care of some of the work for them. PLus 5 years ago the Regulations on eggs were nothing compaired to what they are now. Back then the trucks to deliver the eggs didn't even need to be refrigerated. Now the truck needs its own reefers and the usda has to come and inspect the coolers to make sure they are in line with all there regulations. In pennsylvania the minimum amount of hens to be inspected is 2,000. Or the last time I checked that was 4 years ago. That means the usda can come strolling in and request to over look every aspect of your egg cleaning/storage. And if they don't like something they put there little labels on them and then you have to follow what the inspector tells you to do with them. PLus they have free range of the stores where you sell. It would be very hard to sell that many eggs to your backyard customers and would need an outlet for your extra. Also don't forget if someone wants to sue you becasue maybe your eggs made them sick with some mysterious way. I was required to carry 10,000-50,000 in liability insurance just to sell to one company.
And the last thing. Not everyone cup of tea is to wake up each morning and go shovel chicken manure and make sure the hens get there daily scoop of feed. In the back yard coop with maybe 4 hens yes its a chore to do but its a hobby not a job. The only reason I do what I do is because I love chickens and my family has been doing it for 4 generations. My great grandfather started out with a hatchery. He sold to many small producers with maybe 500-2k hens and thats how they made. We drive the roads and I can hear my grandfather still say. I remember going to that farm and dropping off a couple hundred chicks. And there in the weeds is an abandoned little chicken barn all falling in.
I'm all for small time farmers. As I am in the boat. Its a strugle but there is a piece of cake for everyone if they do it in the correct maner. I about flipped the day I got a mesage in my inbox saying they wanted 300 cases of my eggs. I had to decline them though and kept the few customers I had. Maybe someday I might just contact them and see if there still interested. I still have tons of space still empty without even worrying about any crowding.