Ended Official BYC Contest—Guess When BYC Will Hit 25 Million Messages!

[casportpony]

 

[electrycmonk]

So I’m gonna pull a little baseball stunt. And call a window it will likely occur within.

Reason I’m wanting to do this is I’m currently like 0.25-1% likely to be to closest guess. That is if we see speeds of ~568 posts per hr for the next 13hrs! The speeds of ~168-198 posts per hour has been the facts for over a week now. If you increase your window to the last 3 weeks then the avg per hour drops to ~166/hr.
5/6 ~172-174/hr
5/5 ~182-183/hr
5/2 ~176-178/hr

So based on that data, my logic followed this rabbit hole to the following conclusions:
This morning current speed = ~189/hr over the last 4 hrs.
That gives the current speeds earliest time slot to be ~ 38.72hrs from now.
If that speed is held for the next ~38.72hrs then the likely winners will be 2-4AM on 5/9.
If you fixated on the last 12 hrs alone then you will see a serious drop to an avg of ~114 posts per hour. Hardly something to be excited about.
BUT… the most likely window is based on the avg of ~170/hr which is the avg over the last week plus. That is ~43hrs away from now. Which puts it likely 6-10AM on 5/9.

I’m gonna do a gentlemanly bet of 7:15-8:30AM on 5/9.

penny for y’all thoughts…..

 

[Kiki]

So I’m gonna pull a little baseball stunt. And call a window it will likely occur within.

Reason I’m wanting to do this is I’m currently like 0.25-1% likely to be to closest guess. That is if we see speeds of ~568 posts per hr for the next 13hrs! The speeds of ~168-198 posts per hour has been the facts for over a week now. If you increase your window to the last 3 weeks then the avg per hour drops to ~166/hr.
5/6 ~172-174/hr
5/5 ~182-183/hr
5/2 ~176-178/hr

So based on that data, my logic followed this rabbit hole to the following conclusions:
This morning current speed = ~189/hr over the last 4 hrs.
That gives the current speeds earliest time slot to be ~ 38.72hrs from now.
If that speed is held for the next ~38.72hrs then the likely winners will be 2-4AM on 5/9.
If you fixated on the last 12 hrs alone then you will see a serious drop to an avg of ~114 posts per hour. Hardly something to be excited about.
BUT… the most likely window is based on the avg of ~170/hr which is the avg over the last week plus. That is ~43hrs away from now. Which puts it likely 6-10AM on 5/9.

I’m gonna do a gentlemanly bet of 7:15-8:30AM on 5/9.

penny for y’all thoughts…..

I'll give you a penny to change your guess to on the hour number with no damn minutes.

 

[casportpony]

Today my name is not showing up:

 

[electrycmonk]

I'll give you a penny to change your guess to on the hour numbers with no damn minutes.

(Gives big long raspberry)

Nope! The “contest” is closed so the minutes *rule* is null & void.

-((00))-

 

[Kiki]

(Gives big long raspberry)

Nope! The “contest” is closed so the minutes *rule* is null & void.

-((00))-

 

[electrycmonk]

Today my name is not showing up:
View attachment 3096727

Stealth mode by “x” marking your ID eh?

 

[casportpony]

Stealth mode by “x” marking your ID eh?

It's there now.

 

[ZoomiesMom72]

OMGawsh.....
I'm so embarrassed
May I change mine? to
05/28/2022 12:00am

I got the date confused with my sons birthday!!!! Which is 05/27/2022..
EMBARRASSING ?

 

[Kiki]

OMGawsh.....
I'm so embarrassed
May I change mine? to
05/28/2022 12:00am

I got the date confused with my sons birthday!!!! Which is 05/27/2022..
EMBARRASSING ?

Absolutely not.