Ended Official BYC Contest - Guess When BYC Will Reach 460,000 Members!

[Sc_chickengirl]

No. It is simply a matter of tracking how many new members sign up each day and calculating when the goal will be reached.

So you're not exactly sure when it will happen ?

 

[Isadora]

Except, that is the average. Doesn’t mean it will happen based in your calculations.

He doesn't mean pinpointing it to the exact hour... Just that you can come up with a good guesses.

 

[The-White-Elephant]

He doesn't mean pinpointing it to the exact hour... Just that you can come up with a good guesses.

Yeah, I know.

 

[R2elk]

Except, that is the average. Doesn’t mean it will happen based in your calculations.

The formula can be used to track trends and be very close on the predicted end date. The closer it is to the expected end, the more accurate it is.

Based on the current trends it is going to happen on one of two days. Neither of those days are in March.

 

[The-White-Elephant]

The formula can be used to track trends and be very close on the predicted end date. The closer it is to the expected end, the more accurate it is.

Based on the current trends it is going to happen on one of two days. Neither of those days are in March.

(Am I close?)

 

[Pierre duck drake]

3/12/2022 at 6AM

 

[ChickenCanoe]

Did ya'll rig the whole thing or what?

The total number of posts can potentially be rigged but new members can't.

 

[ChickenCanoe]

The formula can be used to track trends and be very close on the predicted end date. The closer it is to the expected end, the more accurate it is.

Based on the current trends it is going to happen on one of two days. Neither of those days are in March.

What will vary is weekends and holidays compared to weekdays.

 

[R2elk]

What will vary is weekends and holidays compared to weekdays.

If you follow the data long enough those average out too.

 

[casportpony]

Since this contest started, there was a low of 23 new members in 24 hours, a high of 65 new members in 24 hours, and everything else in-between.