I asked this question earlier with limited results so I am watching yours. I racked my brain the same way you are now with both temperature variations as well as thermometer sensor delay. I tend to overthink everything as you will see if you read below.
I currently have 4 different thermometers in an incubator. 2 are digital and have been calibrated, anther is mercury, and the last is an analog meat thermometer. Here are my observations:
The meat thermometer and mercury thermometer
react very slowly and basically don't move at all while the
heat cycles from on and off constantly showing a temp of 99 or 100 degrees all the time.
The first digital thermometer is an Omron
oral thermometer designed to check for fevers. It reacts virtually with no sensor delay. When I watch it my temperature variation is about 2.5 degrees. I try to keep mine from 98.8-101.5. I have verified the internal egg temperature is 99.5 throughout incubation with this thermometer.
The second digital thermometer is an
inkbird temperature control. The sensor delay on this thermometer is around 1 minute.
Due to the increased delay in the reporting to the unit from the sensor the temperature range "appears" much smaller. The range I get on this thermometer is 99.2-100.
When I first asked the question about temperature variation
I got the feeling that most everyone uses thermometers with a high sensor delay and they think they have less variation than they do in reality. There is no way to keep exactly a 99.5 constant temperature; I think the ultimate quest is to do everything you can to have that your average while
minimizing the variation through heat sinks and thermostat efficiency.
I wish I had a better answer for you.