When do you start adding to your flock- contingency plan

Do you ever make an exception to your culling by age guideline? For instance, a dominant or second-in-command hen who does a good job maintaining flock behavior? (I'm not criticizing your schedule at all; just curious if it gets flexed a bit.)
We are actually in flux right now. Because I want my cockerals to be good boys and they get good training by my older hens, also I got a bunch of pullet chicks from TSC on sale for $.50 a week ago and they need to learn the ropes, I am actually debating if I should keep my 2 head hens through this winter just to make sure everyone is set but I have 3 to 4 months to make a decision on them but I know I will be downsizing our flock late summer or early fall with picking what pullets and cockerals stay and who goes and then again in late fall most if not all older girls go too. Honestly it depends on the flock dynamic right before winter sets in on if the 2 head hens stay or go.
 
Flock Planning Timeline (For Peeps Like Me!)
YearHatch New Chicks?Who’s Laying?Egg OutputWhy This Timing?
0Start flockAll pulletsHigh (after 6 mo)Everyone’s young and productive
1NoAll are 6–18 monthsPeak productionLet them do their thing
2Hatch 2–3 eggsOriginal hens 18–30 mo, new chicksSteady but decliningNew pullets lay just as older hens fade
3NoOlder hens slowing, 2nd gen peaksBalancedSmall but efficient flock size
4Hatch 1–2 more1st gen retirees, 2nd slowingStill solid supplyKeeps the cycle going without crowding
I figure if I hatch my own, it keeps things fun and self-sustaining. Plus, I’m curious to see how those Marans/Leghorn/RIR hybrids turn out—egg color lottery, maybe?

Does that seem reasonable? Of course if I hatch my own... they are not linked- and soon enough it is incest 🙃
I foresee problems with your hatching plans.

When you hatch chicks, about half of them will be male.
Do you have plans for what to do with the males?

It is usually not a good idea to raise a single chick by itself. It tends to be lonely and unhappy, and it does not learn how to properly interact with other chickens (which causes problems when you try to add it to the flock later.) So I would not plan to hatch "1-2" in year 4. And I would be nervous about the "2-3" in year 2, in case something goes wrong and you are left with just one.

If you have a hen that goes broody, that can change things a bit. A single chick raised by a broody hen is not alone & unhappy the way a single chick in a brooder would be, and the hen can teach the chick how to properly interact with herself and other chickens.

If a hen goes broody, it might be reasonable to give her just one or two eggs, and have a plan to deal with any males that may result (sell them, give them away, butcher them, or whatever else works for you.)

If you wanted to buy chicks, I would probably buy sexed females in groups of three or more, when your flock shrinks or the laying rate goes down.

If you want to hatch chicks and raise them yourself, I would probably try to do at least 6 at a time. Whatever your plan is for extra males, if you end up with extra females you can do the same thing with them too.

If you keep your flock small and your chickens are more like pets, do you just wait until something happens (illness, predator, etc.) and then add a new bird? Because adding just one or two means handling that whole “bully the new kid” problem as I definitely would raise them as pets again and watch tv with them- like my other chicks.
For that situation, I would probably wait until the flock size has dropped enough to let you add several chicks at once.

I also suggest, when you think about chicks each spring, that you think carefully about each one of your current hens. If an older hen has a hard time one winter, you may consider if she should be euthanized before the next winter. If there is a hen that does not get along well in the flock, you might re-home her to a different flock. If there is one that you just do not like for any reason, you might re-home or otherwise remove her too. Once you know which hens will be leaving the flock, you have a better idea of how many replacement chicks you will want to raise that spring and summer.

For the rooster, you can either plan to raise a son to replace him at some point, or you can wait until something happens to the current one and then buy a new male (either an adult, or a chick when you are raising other chicks.)
 
For us we cull our birds late in the autumn after they are 2 which usually puts them at 2.5 years old. We hatch or get chicks every year. Depending on different factors we may sell some pullets if we have to many or they don't get along with the flock or cause issues. Cockerals again depending on certain factors either leave our flock or get kept for a year maybe 2 if we really like them. This year we had a lot of cockerals so we are trying to narrow down who to keep right now.
This is great knowledge. I dont have a 'tractor supply', so it is a crap shoot as to sexing until- well they hatch!

Last time was eggs, I assumed 50% would survive the trip, and 50% would be roo's. Of the 6 eggs, 3 made it, and one was a roo (my main squeeze- such a swetheart, for now)
 
This is great knowledge. I dont have a 'tractor supply', so it is a crap shoot as to sexing until- well they hatch!

Last time was eggs, I assumed 50% would survive the trip, and 50% would be roo's. Of the 6 eggs, 3 made it, and one was a roo (my main squeeze- such a swetheart, for now)
It helps that we free range and the nest boxes are just outside the coop so they only go in at dusk which gives me room to increase or decrease the flock as I want or need to (within limits). We also don't get to attached to any particular chicken just because we are always cycling them through and free ranging comes with its own risks.
 
Well ... Our girls aren't production girls lol our oldest are now 2.5(ish)(I think lol), we hatched some this year we will add 3-4 pullets from that batch, hatched last year and added then. Plan on hatching for meat next spring with possibility of adding then.

We've had 3 deaths this year due to reproductive internal issues. Last year sold several years olds, had a two unexpected random deaths(we believe reproductive as well)

Knock on wood I've kept everyone alive so far, even with the two reproductive issues we've had since start of summer.

So with those issues, yeah, we add a few here and there. Mostly because of breeds we wanted lol.
 

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