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I'm not sure what you're trying to say here, but OP didn't say anything about temperatures being continuously in that range, just dips. They were almost continuously at optimum (99.5). That's also a summary that I thought would be more accessible. There are studies that list the percentages of...

So you incubated all three groups at the same time, with a loss of two to three eggs per group?

Ah. Your statement that: implied to me that you believed that since the ambient temperature is not the same as the egg's temperature, that any hatch attempt below 100.5 would fail (your personal threshold for success). My bad if that wasn't what you were saying.

Here's a great summary of the concept. https://brinsea.co.uk/latest/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/What-if-the-power-goes-off-2010.pdf They basically summarize a bunch of studies on the subject and present it clearly. What I was talking about was this part: "Avoid maintaining eggs in early...

Pretty sure. I will see if I can find at least one of the studies I consulted on the matter when I was looking into my own incubation issue.

You are correct. One is well documented and rigorous, and the other is anecdotal (ie personal and tied to the individual). ETA: I'm not trying to discount your experience. But to say that people can't have successful hatches unless they do it exactly as you say is disingenuous at best.

Not 99.5, 95 is the threshold where things get dicey.

How much of a difference are you getting between the three groups? There are factors outside the incubator such as nutrition and disease that can impact hatch rate as well.

That's not true according to studies on the matter. 95 degrees and under is where things start to get dicey, if I remember correctly. I'm not saying to shoot for a lower temp, but I don't think that dipping down occasionally to 98.5 is going to significantly impact a hatch, or running at 99.5.

Where is the Govee positioned? Where you'd sit one of the eggs, or near where the top of an egg would be? Because you want to measure from the top of the egg, otherwise you might end up with too high of a temperature, and high temps are more likely to lead to embryo demise than low ones (low...

They said 98.5. That's approximately 37 degrees Celsius (technically 36.94). I thought they said 98.8 though, my bad.

If the dips weren't long this shouldn't really matter. That's not generally low enough to cause issues. Where do you measure the temp from with your external thermometer?

When did they say it went down that low? Pretty sure they said it stayed in the range of 37.1-37.5

Hmmm...are you thoroughly sanitizing the incubator between hatches? Do you wash the eggs prior to putting them in (you generally shouldn't)? Is the turner working as it should? I had an incubator that was giving me terrible hatches all of a sudden and it turned out the turner had gone rogue and...

Have you tested them for accuracy?

That incubator has an auto turner.