Solar cycle 25 is stronger than predictions so far and we're approaching solar maximum. NASA has published the usual cautions about risks from space weather with some "elevated risk" language as a result, and it's been sensationalized by news outlets and blown up to mean all heck's gonna break...
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2022/nov/01/huge-planet-killer-asteroid-discovered-and-its-heading-our-way
This one?
0% chance of a strike. Earth crossing orbit does not mean earth impacting orbit.
Let's set come context here. (grab a drink, this is going to be many words.)
Mars' atmosphere was most likely stripped away by the solar wind and intense cosmic radiation from the early sun, which was more violent and had a much greater impact on the early solar system than it does today. It...
I wrote up a long nerdy answer to this, but I will respectfully disagree. The Chernobyl accident and an atomic weapons attack are sufficiently different as to not be really solid basis for comparison in this case...
This is kind of facetious, I know. but the reality is that the western US is so spread out that unless you have a bunker in your yard, the odds of survival in an urban area are low. You'd have to know where to go, have access to it, and be in close enough proximity that you could get there...