I hardly believe that a 40 or even 60 watt would keep the water thawed enough with the consistent cold out here.
Some quick figures / calculations...
1 Watt is about 3.41 BTUs
1 BTU will raise the temp of 1 pound of water 1° F per hour
1 gallon of water is about 8.3 pounds
So you need about 8.3 BTUs to raise 1 gallon of water 1°F/hour or about 2.4 Watts to raise 1 gallon of water 1°F/hour and in 24 hours that will raise the temp of the water +24°F
That all assumes no loss, not real practical in the real world but it's a start, as it shows that 8.3 BTUs would theoretically provide +24° of temp gain to that gallon of water, so it could theoretically keep that gallon of water thawed until the temps dropped bellow say 8°F average for the day... But, again we have losses that are not figured in, so the number is mostly nonsense...
With a 40W heat source, you have 136.4 BTUs, lets say your water container is 1 gallon or 8.3 pounds of water, that 136.4 BTUs can theoretically raise the temp of that water 16.4°/hour or +394° a day over ambient temp... But, again that is no loss , not real world but it shows us something...
It gives a good idea to build upon because in the above you have a safety factor of 10x to cover losses for that 40W of heater, and using that 10x safety factor we can guess that it could theoretically keep that water liquid down to about -7°F even if 9x out of the 10x safety buffer was lost...
So anyway we return to the real world, and jump to practical numbers based on my experience with outdoor ponds heaters, not theoretical math...
If your water container is in the coop, with no wind blowing over it and moderately insulated by the coop wall and bucket itself, you will need about 4 watts of heat will keep 1 gallon of water about +30°F above ambient temp over the course of a day... Way too many 'insulation' and loss factors to get a solid number but it's pretty safe to say that a 40W heater should do a decent job at keeping a gallon or two of water above freezing temps inside a draft free area like inside a coup, until we get into extreme negative ranges...
If your water is outside in the run with no insulation and wind or air blowing over it that is an entirely different story, you can easily expect to to use 5 or more times the heat to accomplish the same thing, meaning that that 40 Watts of heat could very well struggle to keep even a single gallon liquid even at a moderate freezing temps...
Also consider there is going to be a world of difference in keeping a nearly completely enclosed water system like a sealed nipple water system liquid vs a watering system that has open water surface exposed to the wind, exposed water will drop in temp much faster... And also consider that if you have pump moving the water it's much easier to keep it liquid as it's much harder to freeze moving water and takes temps well below freezing to do so...