Current Internet Theory

[Aunt Angus]

I got 10 eggs from 11 layers today, and since one of those 11 is broody, my girls are batting 1000. On Dumor. So idk.

If it's a feed issue, must be a specific mill? If that's the case, it's not a national problem (ie it's probably not a plan to make all chickens stop laying).

 

[affacat]

The problem is not likely to be the feed store itself.
The problem is likely the warehouse that loads feed into trucks to go to the feed store.

I've seen people mention (other threads, sometimes other years) times when a feed store will get a fresh shipment of feed, and that newly-delivered feed is actually quite old.

I will check our feed bags for dates later today. I suppose it's possible it just doesn't strike me as likely that suddenly so many people are buying old feed it's gotten to the point many are concerned about low egg outage when it seems like if anything, there have been feed shortages going on.

 

[affacat]

but do you actually check the dates? Do you know you are not buying old feed?

Sometimes I do, I but I can't swear I check every bag. We used to buy from a local mill with a solid reputation. We've been buying payback lately. I keep our old bags (trash bags!) And have a nice orderly pile of them, I can take a look at the dates and see.

 

[NatJ]

I will check our feed bags for dates later today. I suppose it's possible it just doesn't strike me as likely that suddenly so many people are buying old feed it's gotten to the point many are concerned about low egg outage when it seems like if anything, there have been feed shortages going on.

If the mills are running a little behind on production, they may be cleaning out all the back corners of the warehouses and selling all the old feed that was sitting there forgotten. That could make a sudden jump in how many stores were selling old feed, for a few weeks or months until the old stock was all moved out.

That would not account for everyone who is having trouble, but it might explain some of them.

I strongly suspect that the flocks with laying issues will turn out to have several different causes, not all the same. Some may be old feed, some may be defective feed, some may be daylength, some may bad weather, some may be older hens, some may be molting, etc.

 

[3KillerBs]

Another guy we know with 40 chickens is getting 3 eggs, though I haven't asked what feed he uses because we don't know him well.

My question would be "How old are the hens?"

 

[Brooks_]

We've gotten 9 eggs for the past few days.

Total or average per day?

 

[sdm111]

If the mills are running a little behind on production, they may be cleaning out all the back corners of the warehouses and selling all the old feed that was sitting there forgotten. That could make a sudden jump in how many stores were selling old feed, for a few weeks or months until the old stock was all moved out.

That would not account for everyone who is having trouble, but it might explain some of them.

I strongly suspect that the flocks with laying issues will turn out to have several different causes, not all the same. Some may be old feed, some may be defective feed, some may be daylength, some may bad weather, some may be older hens, some may be molting, etc.

From first hand experience walking different grain elevators and mills. I know the company but don't know exactly what they refine although I would suspect feed mills would be the same. With the department of agriculture amongst other entities doing inspections and just the way they operate there are no back corners or old product laying around. Everything is used and as quickly as it's offloaded from barges and ships its processed and moved out on rail, barges or 18 wheelers.

 

[Mrs. K]

Light, age, and genetics are the strongest indicators of egg laying. It is well known that different breeds of birds lay different amounts of eggs. And there is natural variance in the breed with individual birds.

I really tip my hat to U_Stormcrow and Kiki for doing some proper research. Good work!

 

[NatJ]

From first hand experience walking different grain elevators and mills. I know the company but don't know exactly what they refine although I would suspect feed mills would be the same. With the department of agriculture amongst other entities doing inspections and just the way they operate there are no back corners or old product laying around. Everything is used and as quickly as it's offloaded from barges and ships its processed and moved out on rail, barges or 18 wheelers.

So you're saying the feed does not sit at the mills. That's good to know.
But there can be several steps between the mill and the actual store.
Some other people have said it DOES seem to sit somewhere, probably in warehouses for some chain stores. Here are two examples:

From April 2021:

I also believe that TSC buys a bunch of feed in bulk and then stores it until it sells. All the Flock Raiser at my 2 local TSC's had mill dates of June 2020 and have had the same mill date for 6 months at least. Maybe longer. Now the mill dates are January. Which in my opinion is still too old.


This pic was taken January 17th. Last month (March 2021) they still had the same mill dates.
View attachment 2609966

From November 2022:

TSC, unfortunately, is (justly) famed for having back of house inventory problems. NOTHING to do with the store level handling (generally), but rather with the local distribution center not following FIFO (First In, First Out) principles on their feed.

At least, that's the case locally. How do I know? While I don't usually buy feed at TSCs, I do read the labels - and when what is stocked this month was produced earlier in the year than what was stocked last month... Math doesn't lie. and my local store doesn't have the space to backstock much feed, nor does their sister store. But If I cross the border into Alabama (different distribution hub), no issues.

 

[Painted Calls]

So you're saying the feed does not sit at the mills. That's good to know.
But there can be several steps between the mill and the actual store.
Some other people have said it DOES seem to sit somewhere, probably in warehouses for some chain stores. Here are two examples:

From April 2021:


From November 2022:

TSC managers have told me they have warehouses. They buy large lots of feed, and it sits in those warehouses until they need to restock. They don't order more until the warehouse is empty. The warehouses are likely not temp controlled. This is why I think I've had so many grain mite issues.