Decisions, decisions...Buying hatching eggs and flock management

[nuthatched]

Hi all, I want to hatch some shipped eggs, (I may wimp out and switch to just ordering chicks, who knows) but how many eggs to buy?
I want to keep a smaller flock, 8 hens-maybe 10, no roosters for the time being.
I expect some losses with shipped eggs, and half to be cockerels (more or less), so if I want 8 hens, I want 20 eggs? They will be shipped from the midwest to Arizona, hopefully they don't get too jostled.
I've been putting off buying hatching eggs from breeders I like for years, in the past year, 2 have retired, (one was one earth farm, I wanted the citron sebrights, anybody know where to get them now?) I lost my chance to get some of their birds and I don't want to put off getting these. However, is there a point in buying special hatching eggs if you don't plan to breed them and just keep hens? Maybe just breed them for a year or two? Most of these questions only I can decide but I'd like your thoughts on this.
Thanks!

 

[ladybrasa]

So with good incubating conditions, count on a 50% hatch rate as decent for shipped eggs. Then 50% of those to be males. However in reality the percentages that actually happen will be across the board! Really, you only need to consider hatching if you want the experience of it, or you want a breed you can’t find as chicks, or chicks in your price range (oh and minimum requirements for chick shipping).

I guess start with 20 or 2 dozen, but realizing you might get a crappy hatch, might end up with a zillion roos, might need to hatch more. Or chicken math. Hatching addiction is real!

 

[U_Stormcrow]

I've never raised shipped eggs, just repeating what I've heard and read, until another more experience member jumps in.

1) 50% is supposed to be a good hatch rate from shipped eggs (a big part of why I don't go that route)

2) In spite of much effort and many wives tales, over time, a 50/50 ratio of hens/roos is the rule - no way of favoring one over the other.

That means, to get 8 hens, you need 16 births, and 32 eggs. ON AVERAGE. Your chances of having more live births - or fewer - are quite high. and within the number of live birds, while you might have 8 hens and 8 roos, you might also have 16 roos (1 chance in 65,536) or 16 hens (also once chance in 65,536) or any of the possibilities in between.

Personally, I prefer more certainty. But if its the only way to have a chance at the breeds you want, understand you are playing a numbers game with a very high chance of an undesired result. The chances of any extreme event are quite low - but there are a lot of events other than 8/8 competing for space on that bell curve.

/edit fixed some bad math. Sorry, need more coffee.

 

[Ridgerunner]

I have had limited experience with hatching shipped eggs, only two tries. The first time I got a 20% hatch rate, the second 100% hatch rate. I calculate this on number of eggs in the incubator and number of chicks out, some people calculate hatch rate other ways. That average is fairly close to 50% (actually 60%) but neither individual hatch was close to 50%.

What conclusion do I draw from this? That if you hatch 15 or 20 different clutches of shipped eggs you may get pretty close to a 50% hatch rate if you combine all shipments, but any one individual hatch can be anywhere across the board. You can't count on getting a 20%, 50%, or 100% hatch rate. It could be anything.

I typically hatch around 40 to 45 chicks a year using my own eggs, some in an incubator, some under broody hens. Over a two year period I usually get pretty close to a 50-50 split in boys versus girls. I have had a few 50-50 splits in an individual hatch but much more common is a 2/3 or even a 3/4 split in an individual hatch. Some years I've had a dozen more girls than boys in all the hatches for that year, some I may have that many more boys. But over time it averages out.

The conclusion I draw from this is that if you hatch enough eggs you will get close to a 50-50 split in the sexes but any individual hatch can be way off.

How many eggs can your supplier provide at any one time? How big is their flock? You do not want them storing hatching eggs for too long before they ship them, the fresher they are the better the chances of them hatching. You might want to discuss this with your supplier, see if there is a practical limit.

I don't have a clue how many eggs you would need to order to get a guaranteed 8 to 10 girls. My suggestion would be to order several more than you think you need and be prepared to sell the excess girls if you have any and the boys. And live with what you get.

I've been putting off buying hatching eggs from breeders I like for years, in the past year, 2 have retired, (one was one earth farm, I wanted the citron sebrights, anybody know where to get them now?) I lost my chance to get some of their birds and I don't want to put off getting these.

How badly do you want them? If you want them and they are available get them now. The longer you put it off the less likely they are to be available. I wanted a certain belt but decided I'll just get it later. It wasn't there later.

However, is there a point in buying special hatching eggs if you don't plan to breed them and just keep hens? Maybe just breed them for a year or two? Most of these questions only I can decide but I'd like your thoughts on this.

Again, this depends on how badly you want them. What are your goals. Only you can decide. My goals don't count for you, only your goals count.

 

[nuthatched]

So with good incubating conditions, count on a 50% hatch rate as decent for shipped eggs. Then 50% of those to be males. However in reality the percentages that actually happen will be across the board! Really, you only need to consider hatching if you want the experience of it, or you want a breed you can’t find as chicks, or chicks in your price range (oh and minimum requirements for chick shipping).

I guess start with 20 or 2 dozen, but realizing you might get a crappy hatch, might end up with a zillion roos, might need to hatch more. Or chicken math. Hatching addiction is real!

I've found places that sell the chicks (silver Laced Barnvelders) but they're straight run and $18-25 (Greenfire is $60!!!) EACH plus approximately $30 shipping and don't seem to have as nice of lacing or body type.
This place sells straight run chicks for $8 but they don't ship chicks. I may check out the state thread to see if anyone is coming this direction, whether driving (chicks) or flying (easier on eggs).

 

[U_Stormcrow]

Greenfire is {ahem} very proud {ahem} of their birds. Which is not a comment on their quality. When what you have is both rare and desired, you need not mass market...

 

[Littledarlingfarm]

It’s really just taking a chance. I think the 20 eggs or slightly less is a good start as well, you have no idea what you will end up with, so no matter what it’s taking a chance, the 50 50 odds can still go completely one way or another for you. On a recent order, I was told to expect a low hatch rate from my eggs I received. I ordered 12 eggs ( I wanted less but that was the min order) and the seller added 4 extra to make up for the hatch rate, and from 16 eggs only three didn’t hatch, I ended up with 7 boys. I think it’s worth considering how easy it is for you to rehome (or whatever plan you have in place) males or too many females if you only want 8 hens and end up with way more. If it’s harder to get rid of roosters where you live, you may not want to order too many and have a problem on your hands, you can always buy more chicks or eggs later. I ended up buyingday old chicks to add to my freshly hatched chicks and going over what I planned anyways. chicken math.

 

[Littledarlingfarm]

It’s really just taking a chance. I think the 20 eggs or slightly less is a good start as well, you have no idea what you will end up with, so no matter what it’s taking a chance, the 50 50 odds can still go completely one way or another for you. On a recent order, I was told to expect a low hatch rate from my eggs I received. I ordered 12 eggs ( I wanted less but that was the min order) and the seller added 4 extra to make up for the hatch rate, and from 16 eggs only three didn’t hatch, I ended up with 7 boys. I think it’s worth considering how easy it is for you to rehome (or whatever plan you have in place) males or too many females if you only want 8 hens and end up with way more. If it’s harder to get rid of roosters where you live, you may not want to order too many and have a problem on your hands, you can always buy more chicks or eggs later. I ended up buyingday old chicks to add to my freshly hatched chicks and going over what I planned anyways. chicken math.

Also buy special hatching eggs if it excites you! Whether or not you plan to breed them! I ordered a few fun ones recently just because I think they are cute, with no plans to breed.

 

[nuthatched]

I have had limited experience with hatching shipped eggs, only two tries. The first time I got a 20% hatch rate, the second 100% hatch rate. I calculate this on number of eggs in the incubator and number of chicks out, some people calculate hatch rate other ways. That average is fairly close to 50% (actually 60%) but neither individual hatch was close to 50%.

What conclusion do I draw from this? That if you hatch 15 or 20 different clutches of shipped eggs you may get pretty close to a 50% hatch rate if you combine all shipments, but any one individual hatch can be anywhere across the board. You can't count on getting a 20%, 50%, or 100% hatch rate. It could be anything.

I typically hatch around 40 to 45 chicks a year using my own eggs, some in an incubator, some under broody hens. Over a two year period I usually get pretty close to a 50-50 split in boys versus girls. I have had a few 50-50 splits in an individual hatch but much more common is a 2/3 or even a 3/4 split in an individual hatch. Some years I've had a dozen more girls than boys in all the hatches for that year, some I may have that many more boys. But over time it averages out.

The conclusion I draw from this is that if you hatch enough eggs you will get close to a 50-50 split in the sexes but any individual hatch can be way off.

How many eggs can your supplier provide at any one time? How big is their flock? You do not want them storing hatching eggs for too long before they ship them, the fresher they are the better the chances of them hatching. You might want to discuss this with your supplier, see if there is a practical limit.

I don't have a clue how many eggs you would need to order to get a guaranteed 8 to 10 girls. My suggestion would be to order several more than you think you need and be prepared to sell the excess girls if you have any and the boys. And live with what you get.


How badly do you want them? If you want them and they are available get them now. The longer you put it off the less likely they are to be available. I wanted a certain belt but decided I'll just get it later. It wasn't there later.


Again, this depends on how badly you want them. What are your goals. Only you can decide. My goals don't count for you, only your goals count.

That's what I'm thinking. I believe the breeder has 3ish breeder flocks, with 10-12 hens per flock, they collect the eggs over two-three days (depending on how many ordered) and they are properly stored. I've wanted them for about 5-6 years and I've always put if off for "in the future".
My goals are just to have them, I suppose, I originally wanted to have hatching eggs available if anyone wanted them but my last rooster was really quiet and I don't want to subject my neighbors to an obnoxious one. I can live with starting with a few girls and breeding my way up.

 

[nuthatched]

Greenfire is {ahem} very proud {ahem} of their birds. Which is not a comment on their quality. When what you have is both rare and desired, you need not mass market...

I've noticed. For the prices they charge for straight run, you'd think they'd hire someone to sex the chicks. Yes, they did bring a many breeds to the US but the quality of their birds has...slipped...over the years.