- Nov 23, 2014
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So chickens lay a lot of eggs, but can they keep up with random egg production? In pondering this question, I knew I could answer it with some egg count information that I collect on my six layers.
If my chickens laid eggs randomly (50/50 chance) then I would expect to obtain 3 eggs each day under random egg production.
However, we all know this isn’t true, and there are times when chickens may lay more or less than this (If you’re interested see my previous post that evaluates factors affecting egg production). My chickens have only been provided natural lighting.
Perhaps one of the most astonishing things to me is that chickens make an astonishing amount of eggs (biomass) – no natural bird can come close – we’ve created a bird with unparalleled fecundity – but can they keep up with random chance?
Well here’s the stats…
Under random chance one would expect a daily production rate of 0.5 eggs each day, but I measured an average daily rate of 0.47 (95%CI=0.449-0.492) eggs per day over two years. So it appears that chickens produce just slightly less than random egg production.
However, this isn’t necessarily true. For example, when I plotted my cumulative egg production over time I found that during the summer time when temperatures were favorable and daylight hours sufficient - my flock was actually far outcompeting random egg production (Figure 1). In particular was the reduced ability to outpace random production as the birds aged each year. So, that by my bird's third year, I shouldn’t probably expect egg production beyond random egg production during the summer months.
Figure 1. - Time series showing the cumulative number of eggs collected from my flock of six chickens (black line) in comparison to what I would expect had my chickens been laying purely randomly (red line) over time.
So, on average, it appears chickens lay slightly less than random chance, but during the summer months over the birds' first two years their production far out-paces random egg production.
Any thoughts, comments, please share. Hope you enjoy the chicken stats.
Cheers,
FishChicken
If my chickens laid eggs randomly (50/50 chance) then I would expect to obtain 3 eggs each day under random egg production.
However, we all know this isn’t true, and there are times when chickens may lay more or less than this (If you’re interested see my previous post that evaluates factors affecting egg production). My chickens have only been provided natural lighting.
Perhaps one of the most astonishing things to me is that chickens make an astonishing amount of eggs (biomass) – no natural bird can come close – we’ve created a bird with unparalleled fecundity – but can they keep up with random chance?
Well here’s the stats…
Under random chance one would expect a daily production rate of 0.5 eggs each day, but I measured an average daily rate of 0.47 (95%CI=0.449-0.492) eggs per day over two years. So it appears that chickens produce just slightly less than random egg production.
However, this isn’t necessarily true. For example, when I plotted my cumulative egg production over time I found that during the summer time when temperatures were favorable and daylight hours sufficient - my flock was actually far outcompeting random egg production (Figure 1). In particular was the reduced ability to outpace random production as the birds aged each year. So, that by my bird's third year, I shouldn’t probably expect egg production beyond random egg production during the summer months.
Figure 1. - Time series showing the cumulative number of eggs collected from my flock of six chickens (black line) in comparison to what I would expect had my chickens been laying purely randomly (red line) over time.
So, on average, it appears chickens lay slightly less than random chance, but during the summer months over the birds' first two years their production far out-paces random egg production.
Any thoughts, comments, please share. Hope you enjoy the chicken stats.
Cheers,
FishChicken
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