Ended Guess When BYC Will Hit 1.5 Million Threads!

[casportpony]

Can I change to 6/8/23 at 9AM

It closed for entries last night.

 

[casportpony]

There were 184 new threads in the last 24 hours.
1704 to go.

 

[NorthwoodsChick]

Only 9:41 here.

that’s 3 extra hours to play with the chickens

 

[casportpony]

Now that the contest is over, we can show you the tracker sheet.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...oiv-QDeslC2ZU13kKV4BV0syY/edit#gid=1807799312

 

[NorthwoodsChick]

1,885 to go. As of June 1, 2023, the average number of threads per hour is less than 6.5 threads per hour.

If you divide the number of threads to go by 6.5, it will give you the number of hours remaining.before it could possibly happen. It won't tell you when it will happen just that it won't happen before then.

I enjoy a healthy margin of error +- 100.
Then take in tons of variables: summer=less screen time; chick days at TSC; weather patterns and so on and on.
Bottom line- I am much better at chicken math; everything else is my dumb luck

 

[casportpony]

This shows how many daily posts are needed to get 1.5m by each day.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...oiv-QDeslC2ZU13kKV4BV0syY/edit#gid=1624878003

Current Date	Current Count	Target
6/6/2023	1,498,299	1,500,000
Target Date	Daily Needed
6/6/2023	1701
6/7/2023	851
6/8/2023	567
6/9/2023	425
6/10/2023	340
6/11/2023	284
6/12/2023	243
6/13/2023	213
6/14/2023	189
6/15/2023	170
6/16/2023	155
6/17/2023	142
6/18/2023	131
6/19/2023	122
6/20/2023	113
6/21/2023	106
6/22/2023	100
6/23/2023	95
6/24/2023	90
6/25/2023	85
6/26/2023	81
6/27/2023	77
6/28/2023	74
6/29/2023	71
6/30/2023	68
7/1/2023	65
7/2/2023	63
7/3/2023	61
7/4/2023	59
7/5/2023	57
7/6/2023	55
7/7/2023	53
7/8/2023	52
7/9/2023	50
7/10/2023	49
7/11/2023	47
7/12/2023	46
7/13/2023	45
7/14/2023	44
7/15/2023	43
7/16/2023	41
7/17/2023	41
7/18/2023	40
7/19/2023	39
7/20/2023	38
7/21/2023	37
7/22/2023	36
7/23/2023	35
7/24/2023	35
7/25/2023	34
7/26/2023	33
7/27/2023	33
7/28/2023	32
7/29/2023	32
7/30/2023	31
7/31/2023	30

 

[NorthwoodsChick]

Now that the contest is over, we can show you the tracker sheet.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...oiv-QDeslC2ZU13kKV4BV0syY/edit#gid=1807799312
View attachment 3531210

Well, shoot! My original guesstimate was very close- within my MOE

 

[HipMystic]

Now that guessing is over, it is okay to show your calculations as to how you arrived at your guess.

The first one was just a wild guess

For the second one I actually used the numbers from your earlier post…

1885 divided by 6.5 is 290 hours
290 divided by 24 is a little over 12 days
It was the 5th, so add 12 to that, making it the 17th
I like to add an extra day or two to whatever my calculated date is, so the 18th; and 4pm because most people (unlike me) aren’t on BYC in the middle of the night

(Disclaimer: I usually don’t win these contests )

1,885 to go. As of June 1, 2023, the average number of threads per hour is less than 6.5 threads per hour.

If you divide the number of threads to go by 6.5, it will give you the number of hours remaining.before it could possibly happen. It won't tell you when it will happen just that it won't happen before then.

 

[R2elk]

The first one was just a wild guess

For the second one I actually used the numbers from your earlier post…

1885 divided by 6.5 is 290 hours
290 divided by 24 is a little over 12 days
It was the 5th, so add 12 to that, making it the 17th
I like to add an extra day or two to whatever my calculated date is, so the 18th; and 4pm because most people (unlike me) aren’t on BYC in the middle of the night

(Disclaimer: I usually don’t win these contests )

The hourly rate has been 6.1 new threads per hour.

 

[Kiki]

I can't believe it's closed!

I didn't realize it was that time.