Interesting theoretical. In my experience, the range of hatch dates is determined by the conditions of the incubator. ie. if the temperature is too cool, the eggs take longer to develop and hatch. If the temperatures are too high, you're likely to just get dead embryos, so cool temperature affects hatch date more than high temperatures.
Thus, if one is unable to touch or monitor the eggs, the solution would be to monitor the incubator conditions with calibrated tools to ensure perfect hatching conditions.
In your example, the birds hatch between 23 to 28 days. Thus, perfect conditions result in a lockdown date at day 20. As noted in the conditional lockdown dates that you listed, that is correct.
An un-calibrated thermometer could lead to a temperature difference of a full degree, meaning the hatch will be a couple of days late. Thus, if you were using sub par tools and were able to touch the eggs, you would candle and check the eggs (as others have mentioned), and would delay lockdown until day 22, with hatch expected on day 25.
The theoretical put forth gives the range of dates in which a chick could viably hatch given a range of temperatures. You put forth that in the given theoretical you can't touch the eggs or examine them directly.
Thus, the answer is to calibrate all equipment and ensure perfect hatch conditions so that the hatch date falls at the correct time at day 23, with the lockdown date at day 20.
I assume that the variance in possible days to hatch is directly related to each individual species tolerance for temperature variations during incubation.
Thanks for the reply and my apologies for the delay. Just for the record if its of any use to anyone reading this and given that in the meantime I had more time to research/experiment on this:
When a specie's "Incubation Period" consist of a range (Example 17-19 days) rather than a single number (Example: 17days) - it does not means that this is done to compensate for "not ideal hatching conditions", otherwise the "Incubation Period" of ALL species would be ranges.
Its true that when the temperature fluctuate or is not set right the "Incubation Period" may be moved, however this is something different and applies to all species.
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But the conclusion everything was pointing to is that when an "Incubation Period" is a range of days, this is mainly due to different strains/origins/family of the same bird species.
As a real word example, I have access to a commercial hatchery and we hatched around 5k of Bobwhite Quail. Different strains/origins of the same bird were placed each in their own tray so we can keep note of which is which.
Some started hatching on day 23, others on day 24. The difference was clear on day 24, with certain stains have finished hatching while others are just getting started.
The test took in consideration other factors such as location of trays in the incubator (didn't had any meaningful difference). done in different seasons. Also the diet/environment of the parents, which was the same for all strains and didn't made a difference either.
So as a conclusion, some Bobwhite Quails hatch consistently on day 23, others on day 24 (and this when all conditions were the same, apart from the strain/origin/family of the specie)
Therefore, similarly to why different species or sub-species of birds have different "Incubation Periods". Different strains/origins/family of the same specie can have different "Incubation Periods" too and that's why the hatching charts of certain specie have a range of days when they hatch.
Its true that other factors can influence the "Incubation Periods" of all birds, including the location of the eggs in the incubator, how fresh the eggs are, etc. But when these parameters are the same, the variations seen to be due to genetic.
Thanks for all the input