This is just not true. Mutation can happen in any flock, big or small. It's not just about mutation in one flock, but spread to other flocks and wild birds. Remember that while low path AI may be a silent infection in wild birds, high path is deadly in ALL birds. It is also highly contagious. It only takes one mutation to go from low path to high. This is why AI can start out as low path and by the end of the week become high path within the same flock.
It is not just about individual flocks. As backyard farmers, many of us do not practice tight bio security. As another poster mentioned, we go to the feed store, to friends houses, etc. all it takes is ONE virus particle. ONE. To spread to other birds, both wild and domestic. A sparrow or mallard could pick that up and spread the virus to who knows how many other sources. THIS is why depopulation is so important. The AI virus may not be able to survive long outside the environment, but just because a flock comes up negative the day the tests are run, does not mean two days later there won't be a positive. The virus can still be spread via fomites (objects or people on which the virus can travel) a few days after the virus is picked up by that object.
I think there is a lot of misinformation or lack of understanding when it comes to the epidemiology of this virus. That alone explains why controlling this virus swiftly and efficiently is so important. It is not that the USDA does not care about small flock owners, but leaving this uncontrolled is a disaster waiting to happen. Look at what happened to the swine industry when the swine flu epidemic happened. The industry tanked and it was determined the virus had not even originated in pigs. In fact, it was a human virus transmitted by workers in swine barns that gave it to the pigs. That industry is still seeing the effects.
So yes, it is about money and te poultry industry, but it is not JUST about that. As another poster mentioned, this is about public health and wildlife health just as much as it is about preventing this illness in the animals. This affects every single one of us, whether we own chickens or not. The cost of chicken products (eggs and chicken can be found in so very many things!), the wildlife this will affect, as well as the keeping of chickens as pets. It is a very multifaceted issue, which is why the USDA is also monitoring wildlife. You cannot control disease without monitoring ALL sources, and right now migratory birds are a major issue. Biosecurity in wildlife centers is just as important as they are on poultry farms.
There are some great books out there describing the epidemiology of avian influenza, which I highly recommend. Many can be found right on the Internet as PDFs. I think it is important to understand these concepts fully in order to even begin to understand why these decisions are being made.
In the instance of the backyard flock owner on BYC who was originally ordered to depopulate his flock - yes, he originally tested negative, but the fear was that the virus could be still be present somewhere on his farm. It is much easier to depopulate a high risk negative flock than it is to take the risk of having that flock later test positive and then having to test and depopulate flocks around him. In that instance, he was the only one in the area that was high risk due to the shipment of eggs, but had he come up positive in the course of quarantine, the problem would have been so much larger and could have ultimately been prevented with depopulation in the first place. He was very lucky, but there is a good chance of any high risk farm not being so lucky. So to alleviate the response needed, depopulation of negative flocks is sometimes a necessary evil.