I have WHAT in my yard? :
I got to talking to some people yesterday and got to wondering.
BYC is a wide spectrum of people so let me ask: How many of you really think that major civil unrest/societal destabilization is likely in the next five years?
For a different perspective, I'll throw out mine. I don't think you are talking about the stuff that went on in the 60's and early 70's, the anti-war, free-love and drugs, and racial issues. We could have some interesting discussions on the triggers for those, that new-fangled TV bringing war into our homes on the evening news or our government failing to convince enough Americans that this was worth Americans dying for; birth control pills or the affluent baby-boomers wanting to give their kids what they did not have growing up; blacks and whites fighting and dying together while depending on each other or just that blacks and whites finally started mixing so you could get to know each other on a personal basis versus perceptions of "them", many more things and probably a combination of things feeding off each other. While this was our latest time of great societal change, I never really got the feel that our government was about to fall or that the majority of our people were going to take to the streets. I think you are talking about a more general breakdown of society.
What would be the triggers of a total breakdown of society? I think the main possibility would be economic where a substantial number of our population cannot take care of themselves and their families. As a benchmark, think about the Great Depression and how bad things were then. I'm guessing something worse than that is what you are talking about. While that was a global meltdown, don't forget that those were also the dust bowl years which made it even worse for a lot of our citizens. I'm not convinced the stock market meltdown was the only cause of the Great Depression, or maybe another way to say it is that I'm not convinced that an overextended market was the only cause. We came out of that without a total breakdown across society, although it was rough for a lot of people for a long time and it did greatly affect how people thought for the rest of their lifetimes.
What are some of the things that could trigger a breakdown? I'll pretty much discount most natural disasters such as hurricanes, tornadoes, or earthquakes. I just don't see them as affecting enough people to cause a general breakdown in society. I lived through Katrina so I know how much some people's lives were changed, but really, how much did Katrina affect the daily life of people living in St. Paul, Minnesota? I don't think a major earthquake in California would have that much of an effect on most of us as bad as it would be for the people that live through it. California will eventually slide off into the ocean, but that is going to be over geological time, not next week. I don't think even a major Tsunami would trigger what you are talking about. Of course, an asteroid hit could, but what are the odds? The type of natural disasters I would worry about is a time of drought or wet weather that significantly disrupts the world's food supply over a period of years. I personally think we could survive a few years of that, but a severe food shortage worldwide could be a trigger. If you are in the camp that climate change to rival or eclipse the dust bowl years is going to occur in the next few years, you have my permission to worry.
What could be another trigger? A government meltdown? I'm not too concerned about the federal government collapsing in the next couple of years. I'm not real happy with deficit financing and there will eventually be a bill to pay, and I worry about inflation getting out of control, but I think the Feds can smoke and mirror us for a while longer to avoid that total meltdown. I do think it is coming and it will not be pretty, but I just don't see it happening in the next few years. A state meltdown is much more possible. Some states, like Arkansas, have a balanced budget law and while we are one of the poorest states in the country, we are actually in pretty good shape financially. I wonder if we are considered one of the poorest states because we are in pretty good shape financially? Oh, well, that's another topic. The type of state meltdown I'm talking about is maybe New Jersey's pension fiasco. I don't know if that bill is coming due or if it is just that the governor sees how big that bill is and is generating a crisis mentality to deal with it. But New Jersey could probably melt down without me taking to the streets with my pitchfork, even if the Feds do use my taxes to bail them out which would not make me very happy. California with their budget problems could probably melt down without me grabbing my pitchfork, but if enough states melt down, I may start sharpening those tines, depending on what action the Feds take.
There are certain international events that could be a trigger. An easy example is a Middle East war that shuts down oil supplies. That could cause a major societal change, but I'm not convinced it would cause an overthrow of our government. If it caused enough disruption, I think it could meet your criteria for this thread. Will this happen in the next five years? I can't tell you. With our current state of technology in the communications field, great harm can be created pretty easily that could raise tensions to a dangerous level. I'll be a little absurd to illustrate what I am talking about. I can envision Kim IL Jung reading something on Wikileaks that sends him over that rational edge he is unstably standing on now.
So to answer your question as I think I understand it, will a major societal upheaval occur in the next five years in the United States, I think it is possible but unlikely. But I do think some societal changes, less severe than the 60's-70's but still significant, will occur. Which direction thay will take, I am not going to guess. Anyway, my opinion.
I got to talking to some people yesterday and got to wondering.
BYC is a wide spectrum of people so let me ask: How many of you really think that major civil unrest/societal destabilization is likely in the next five years?
For a different perspective, I'll throw out mine. I don't think you are talking about the stuff that went on in the 60's and early 70's, the anti-war, free-love and drugs, and racial issues. We could have some interesting discussions on the triggers for those, that new-fangled TV bringing war into our homes on the evening news or our government failing to convince enough Americans that this was worth Americans dying for; birth control pills or the affluent baby-boomers wanting to give their kids what they did not have growing up; blacks and whites fighting and dying together while depending on each other or just that blacks and whites finally started mixing so you could get to know each other on a personal basis versus perceptions of "them", many more things and probably a combination of things feeding off each other. While this was our latest time of great societal change, I never really got the feel that our government was about to fall or that the majority of our people were going to take to the streets. I think you are talking about a more general breakdown of society.
What would be the triggers of a total breakdown of society? I think the main possibility would be economic where a substantial number of our population cannot take care of themselves and their families. As a benchmark, think about the Great Depression and how bad things were then. I'm guessing something worse than that is what you are talking about. While that was a global meltdown, don't forget that those were also the dust bowl years which made it even worse for a lot of our citizens. I'm not convinced the stock market meltdown was the only cause of the Great Depression, or maybe another way to say it is that I'm not convinced that an overextended market was the only cause. We came out of that without a total breakdown across society, although it was rough for a lot of people for a long time and it did greatly affect how people thought for the rest of their lifetimes.
What are some of the things that could trigger a breakdown? I'll pretty much discount most natural disasters such as hurricanes, tornadoes, or earthquakes. I just don't see them as affecting enough people to cause a general breakdown in society. I lived through Katrina so I know how much some people's lives were changed, but really, how much did Katrina affect the daily life of people living in St. Paul, Minnesota? I don't think a major earthquake in California would have that much of an effect on most of us as bad as it would be for the people that live through it. California will eventually slide off into the ocean, but that is going to be over geological time, not next week. I don't think even a major Tsunami would trigger what you are talking about. Of course, an asteroid hit could, but what are the odds? The type of natural disasters I would worry about is a time of drought or wet weather that significantly disrupts the world's food supply over a period of years. I personally think we could survive a few years of that, but a severe food shortage worldwide could be a trigger. If you are in the camp that climate change to rival or eclipse the dust bowl years is going to occur in the next few years, you have my permission to worry.
What could be another trigger? A government meltdown? I'm not too concerned about the federal government collapsing in the next couple of years. I'm not real happy with deficit financing and there will eventually be a bill to pay, and I worry about inflation getting out of control, but I think the Feds can smoke and mirror us for a while longer to avoid that total meltdown. I do think it is coming and it will not be pretty, but I just don't see it happening in the next few years. A state meltdown is much more possible. Some states, like Arkansas, have a balanced budget law and while we are one of the poorest states in the country, we are actually in pretty good shape financially. I wonder if we are considered one of the poorest states because we are in pretty good shape financially? Oh, well, that's another topic. The type of state meltdown I'm talking about is maybe New Jersey's pension fiasco. I don't know if that bill is coming due or if it is just that the governor sees how big that bill is and is generating a crisis mentality to deal with it. But New Jersey could probably melt down without me taking to the streets with my pitchfork, even if the Feds do use my taxes to bail them out which would not make me very happy. California with their budget problems could probably melt down without me grabbing my pitchfork, but if enough states melt down, I may start sharpening those tines, depending on what action the Feds take.
There are certain international events that could be a trigger. An easy example is a Middle East war that shuts down oil supplies. That could cause a major societal change, but I'm not convinced it would cause an overthrow of our government. If it caused enough disruption, I think it could meet your criteria for this thread. Will this happen in the next five years? I can't tell you. With our current state of technology in the communications field, great harm can be created pretty easily that could raise tensions to a dangerous level. I'll be a little absurd to illustrate what I am talking about. I can envision Kim IL Jung reading something on Wikileaks that sends him over that rational edge he is unstably standing on now.
So to answer your question as I think I understand it, will a major societal upheaval occur in the next five years in the United States, I think it is possible but unlikely. But I do think some societal changes, less severe than the 60's-70's but still significant, will occur. Which direction thay will take, I am not going to guess. Anyway, my opinion.
