How many of you really think it is possible??

[Dunkopf]

Quote:
I guess you don't mind having your sponge bath done by an 80 year old nurse, then?

Now you know how I am Royd. I can run with that and show my bad taste.

If you read the report it isn't very good for America. The military is forecasting a lot of shortages in the next 25 years. There just isn't enough actual oil to go around. We aren't going to have any choice but to destroy our environment to supply the demand. Even with electric cars and nuclear power. Both very viable options but nuke reactors take so long to build. The political resistance to them is lower than it was but is still high. Three mile Island was scary and people still remember it. Oil shale and sand although highly vaunted require a lot of water to get the oil out. That water is ruined in the process. The areas where the shale oil is are all areas with drought issues already. Even if all restrictions on oil drilling are lifted and they open restricted areas there still won't be enough oil for demand. It's in the ground but we just don't have the capability to get it out as fast as we need it much less refine it. China is building 1000 kilometers or 6 miles of 4 lane highway every year. Right now they have only a small fraction of the cars per capita that we have. It's going to go up a lot. India is going to have a larger population than any other country in the world.


Then there's the issue of water. Water is going to be a major issue. With global climate change and drought happening in more and more places. Mind you I'm not saying anything about causes. Global climate change is a fact to everyone. It's cause is the only debatable issue and that's not on the table in this report. Countries will actually go to war over water.

Food will be an issue because of water. More beef will be consumed by nations that are developing and becoming more prosperous. Beef uses a lot more resources than grain and will become an issue.

Most of the currently developed countries will have huge elderly populations including the US. Other developing countries that believe in large families will have large populations of young unemployed people looking for causes to fight when they can't find unemployment. In other words idealistic terrorism.

My conclusion about not a good time to have children has to do with the fact that by 2030 America may not be quite as stable as it is now. It's not going to have to do with who is in office now. It's the world in general. It's weather or not our leaders are able to do what needs to be done and put the politics aside. It's a long read and I had to read a number of sentences again to make sense. Kind of like reading a textbook. However it is by the joint Chiefs and they are structuring our military based on these predictions. It gives you a better grasp on what is happening worldwide. Helps you to realize that we are not the only country in this world and how rapidly other countries are advancing. Also makes you realize that there is no stopping the world is flat theory. Tariffs aren't going to work. What is happening is inevitable and the longer we don't change to accommodate it the further behind we will be.

Ok., where's Jesus? I'm ready to be saved.

 

[Ridgerunner]

I'll go back to your earlier post. I see this more as a worst case scenario than as a true prediction. In order to be in a position to respond without panic, you need to have thought about it. Sort of like taking the Red Cross first aid training, not because you are planning on someone specific having an accident, but more that you are prepared in case someone around you does. I think it is a pretty good grasp of current trends and what could happen, but as they clearly say, the unexpected is what will happen.

I agree that people will potentially go to war over food, water, or other resources. That is potentially, not specifically that it will absolutely happen. If you are in charge of national security, you need to know where things like this might happen so you can have a plan of action ready. It does not mean that you are sure it will happen or that you really expect it to happen, just that you are prepared in case it does, or more likely something similar somewhere else happens.

I suspect that there are plans in place for a war between the US and Europe, or at least certain European nations or coalitions. It is not that we plan to be at war with Europe anytime soon, but it could possibly happen and we need to have an idea what we would do. I imagine several European nations have also considered that possibility.

As far as having children, there have always been risks. Hard times cause unexpected changes in society. During the Great Depression, divorce rates dropped. I would have thought they would go up due to all the stress, but people could not afford the legal and lawyer fees. Birth rates dropped during the hard times but were pretty high during the good economic times just before and just after. There is a correlation.

I've had all the kids I'm going to have and I hope they give me more grandkids. If you look at it, these good times and bad times tend to swing in terms of a decade or less, meaning a generation will probably experience both good times and bad times. Even as horrible as the Black Death was in Europe, the survivors usually saw pretty prosperous times once that wave of plague went through. It is not my decision to make, but I hope my kids do not deny my potential grandkids the chance to enjoy those good times because of potential bad times.

 

[I have WHAT in my yard?]

See here's the thing.

Ridge is right that this report (certainly not an article) is from the military and their job is contingency planning. It is the operating environment report ie wht does the pentagon think are likely to the situations in which they might be operating. No one can see the future, but they need to prepare for many differing eventualities and choose to aim for what might be most likely in their opinion.

Battles over resources have historically always been an issue. Most wars are over resources. The Pentagon has no cause to think otherwise now. Several key resources are in play - water (probably actually a bigger problem than oil) oil, rare earth metals and food in general.Food goes in and out as an issue and is low on the potentiality because Malthus was behind the curve and humans are incredibly resourceful. It remains an issue because not only does it require both oil and water to produce, but people get very mean over the lack of it very quickly.

But, drinkable water is going to be huge very soon. Actually, it already is in many areas right here in the US.

The military is paid to be paranoid on our behalf. That's their job. The problem is that game theory as it was used by the military became used by just about everyone.

I am taking another course in game theory this semester just so that I can understand why it got so out of control. The professor readily admitted in the very first lecture that game theory DOES NOT work in all of the areas to which it has been applied.

So here we go again. Yet another area of economics in which the theory is accurate but gets over applied and causes huge problems.

Deregulation. Tax breaks for the wealthy. Neo-liberal economics. etc etc.

If I am a track coach for long distance runners and I advise you to carbo load rpior to races, I would probably give you advice on how far ahead of the race to start and stop loading and what type of things you should eat. But, say I do say you should carbo load before races, and some one says, "Hey, so and so says you should carbo load before races." Then people start cramming massive amounts of pasta down their throats prior to races and getting sick after trying to run on an overloaded stomach. Then everyone gets this idea that carbo loading is a wonderful idea and they start cramming in carbs all of the time. Now you have lost the plan, the timing and the reason for the behavior that was once touted as a good idea. Was the original idea wrong? No. Is it likely to have disastrous consequences now? Yes.

There are many many things in life that are good in moderation and horrible in excess. Why is it so difficult for us to grasp that this applies to politics and economics as well??

 

[Royd]

Quote:
I guess you don't mind having your sponge bath done by an 80 year old nurse, then?

Now you know how I am Royd. I can run with that and show my bad taste.

If you read the report it isn't very good for America. The military is forecasting a lot of shortages in the next 25 years. There just isn't enough actual oil to go around. We aren't going to have any choice but to destroy our environment to supply the demand. Even with electric cars and nuclear power. Both very viable options but nuke reactors take so long to build. The political resistance to them is lower than it was but is still high. Three mile Island was scary and people still remember it. Oil shale and sand although highly vaunted require a lot of water to get the oil out. That water is ruined in the process. The areas where the shale oil is are all areas with drought issues already. Even if all restrictions on oil drilling are lifted and they open restricted areas there still won't be enough oil for demand. It's in the ground but we just don't have the capability to get it out as fast as we need it much less refine it. China is building 1000 kilometers or 6 miles of 4 lane highway every year. Right now they have only a small fraction of the cars per capita that we have. It's going to go up a lot. India is going to have a larger population than any other country in the world.

Sorry, I don't buy it. The discovery in North Dakota is recent, and it is huge. Natural Gas is a biproduct of the earth, and it is everywhere. Nuclear power is only 25 years away....Oh, my! We have become a nation of hand wringers, instead of a nation of doers.....My, that's a big pile of wood, and winter's only 6 months away. How will I ever get it all split? That sure is a big field and harvest time is only 5 months away. How, ever, will I get it planted? You get the point.

We have operational nuclear plants, now. So does France....We don't need to reinvent the mouse trap....Concrete is concrete, steel is steel, and nuclear reaction is nuclear reaction...The only things we need to tweek are improvements on the process of handling used material and we'll never get there, sitting the corner, rocking back and forth....I actually believe, that if we'd get on with the program, the fuel could be used, over and over again, thus, eliminating a huge amount of the waste storage.

How many nuclear aircraft carriers do we have that are self sustaining, outside of the food supply? A continual source of fresh water and fuel.

The government needs to get out of the social engineering business, and just deal with governance...This nonsense of forcing a technology on us, just because it sounds good, in the utopian world of someone's mind, does not make it a viable solution.

If 1,000 people want to get together, buy a piece of West Texas prarie, build a community, which is run on wind power, more power to them.

In the meantime, oil, coal and natural gas are what we have to work with, and we have a bunch of heavyhanded idealogues putting restrictions on our ability to even run our economy.

Then there's the issue of water. Water is going to be a major issue. With global climate change and drought happening in more and more places. Mind you I'm not saying anything about causes. Global climate change is a fact to everyone. It's cause is the only debatable issue and that's not on the table in this report. Countries will actually go to war over water.

The amount of water, on this planet, never changes. It just changes form. Water can be purified through filtration and evaporation...At this moment, I am making some distilled water, to put into a battery. Time comsuming, for me, but not that difficult.

My conclusion about not a good time to have children has to do with the fact that by 2030 America may not be quite as stable as it is now. It's not going to have to do with who is in office now. It's the world in general. It's weather or not our leaders are able to do what needs to be done and put the politics aside.

The reason it will not be stable, is because we do have people with political agendas, who are standing in the way of doing what needs to be done, to keep from making this nation into a third world country.

Here's my solution to the problem. Go after our supplies of coal, gas and oil and make them as efficient as possible....Start building the nuclear powergrid, to replace the current one....I can guarantee you, we could put 2-3 million people back to work, immediately.

Let the alternative power production sort itself out in the free market of ideas and money.

When the oil cartels saw that they no longer have any leverage, on the market, they would have no choice, but to drop their prices, in order to compete...At that point, we buy up every bit of spare oil, as a national reserve​

 

[Dunkopf]

That's a simple solution alright. Problem is that there's a lot of other factors involved. You should read the report instead of just listening to simpletons express their opinion. That's what Obama figured out when he got in office. I'm sure you probably didn't listen to anything he said, but he had a lot of simple solutions. Then he got in the seat and someone told him about what is really happening. Now we have a guy that is about 20 times as conservative as the candidate that we elected was.

Read the report Royd. Just because we have 10 billion barrels of oil in the Dakotas doesn't mean we can just go in and suck it out next week. It's a difficult process that requires a huge investment and a lot of time. Nuclear reactors are the same way. Obama has already stated that we need to build more. The power companies want to be subsidized though. Nuclear reactors cost billions of dollars each and coal is a lot cheaper. We should have been doing all this 50 years ago. Even back then there were plenty of people that said we would be coming to this crossroads. However a lot of ignorant people didn't buy it. So we just kept on motoring down the same path.

The analogy about the Nuclear carriers is always amusing. They provide enough power to supply a floating city of 5000 people for a few years between rods. They don't have the technology yet to desalinate water on a large scale. When they do it will sure help.

People need to stop living in a vacum. You said we could buy up all the oil reserves when the oil companies are forced to drop their prices. As usual it is assumed that America is the only country in the world that may want to do the same thing. Why do you think we are in Afghanistan? It's to protect our future. If crazy anti American radicals take over areas in the Mid East we won't have enough oil to supply our needs. We will always have boot son the ground in the Mid East.

It's all about resources. All the petty politics are nothing. Read the report and open your eyes a little. A few guns in your closet isn't going to keep you alive in the future. It will be the political leaders and weather or not they have the intestinal fortitude to do what needs to be done.

 

[Beekissed]

Dunkopf: Ok., where's Jesus? I'm ready to be saved.

Finally!

Now you won't have to worry about or debate such topics anymore!

 

[Wifezilla]

The amount of water, on this planet, never changes. It just changes form. Water can be purified through filtration and evaporation...At this moment, I am making some distilled water, to put into a battery. Time comsuming, for me, but not that difficult.

Close. Actually we gain a little water through meteorites.​

 

[mgw]

Quote:
Close. Actually we gain a little water through meteorites.

If we would all just listen to Gore we would know that the sea level is going to raise 20'. No need to worry about water LOL. Of course it's a little behind schedule from what he professed still I am confident LMAO.

 

[elizabethbinary]

So.... I'm a slightly bigger believer now.

 

[Royd]

Quote:
At least, until the next drought.