How many to order starightrun

[southerndesert]

Yup main decision it what to do with roosters with a straight run order....

Agreed it is a crap shoot at best and we do mostly straight run (we hatch them) simply because we eat the roosters at 17 to 20 weeks of age so we want some and it really helps out with our food budget....

 

[jerryb]

just for fun I thought I would post the probabilities for you.

if you order five chicks:

the probability of getting all one sex is slightly more than 3%

the probability of getting exactly one hen or one rooster is 15.6%

the probability of getting at least one rooster (or at least one hen) is 81.25%

so out of five chicks you have only a three percent chance of getting all hens or all roosters.

if you buy a dozen, then

the probablity of getting all one sex less than .0003%

the probability of getting at least one rooster (or at least one hen) is 99.97%

and your probability of getting less than 3 hens is still less than 1%


Just wanted to toss this out there for fun. (for those who are math oriented this is known as a binomial experiment with the probability of success=.5)

it is entirely possible to get all one sex even with a dozen ordered, but its very unlikely if the chicks are truly straight run.

cheers
Jerry

 

[Fred's Hens]

Jerry had way too much fun in Statistics class.

 

[Mahonri]

But how could we live without the Jerry's of the world?

We couldn't!

 

[KrisH]

Quote:
Bet he could tell us the probability so success with or without statistics.

Just picking at you, I'm a computer Geek, so please take that as just poking fun, Wink Wink nod nod.

 

[Ridgerunner]

I once ordered 6 straight run and got 7 pullets. Even the packing peanut was a pullet. It's just the odds. I was in the less than 1% group. Since, like you, I wanted both roosters and pullets, I did not rush out to buy a lottery ticket. I can run the odds of 6 or 7, but how do you calculate the odds of 7 out of 6? 1 out of 64? 1 out of 128? I think I'll get another cup of coffee.

One hatch I had from green eggs gave me one rooster and four pullets. I wanted more green egg layers so I was really happy. But of the four pullets, only one laid green eggs. Promising odds proved pretty disappointing.

I don't know if you are getting them shipped or if you will pick them up. That might make a difference since more to keep each other warm gives you better survival rates for shipping. Even if you pick them up instead of ship, there is no guarantee all will survive or be of the quality you want. If you are getting them from a breeder who has won prize ribbons with them, I can see that an extra that you really did not want could be an expensive meal.

There is a lot about your situation and goals I don't know. With what little I do know, I'd be tempted to go with a few more rather than less. I personally would not go less than 10. The odds of you getting at least 2 roosters or 2 hens is really in your favor with 10, you probably will have a few extra to choose your keepers from, and if you wind up with a real shortage of hens, you can set up pairs instead of trios. If you have extra hens, maybe quads instead of trios. But it is a personal decision. You know your situation and goals a lot better than I do.

 

[BrattishTaz]

I have purchased straight run chicks twice equalling 15 birds total. I ended up with:

Roosters: 11

Hens: 4

Based on the statistics in the earlier post, I guess I should play the lottery more often.

Extra roos shouldn't be a problem if you eat your birds. I don't. I never did find homes for them either. I have a freerange flock of boys crowing their faces off right now.

 

[jerryb]

Fred's Hens :

Jerry had way too much fun in Statistics class.

yes, he did.

glad you all are having fun with me too.

Jerry​

 

[BrattishTaz]

Quote:
yes, he did.

glad you all are having fun with me too.

Jerry

Now that you have revealed you talent, get ready for help requests from mathematically challenged people like me.

 

[jerryb]

Quote:
You know where to find me anytime you have a probability issue

cheers
jerry