How to know what to do?

There are no guarantees, but I've usually had enough of my spring chicks start laying in time to get through winter. Right now I have 4 out of 7 laying, and one more is very close, I think.

Some years it is a bit of a nail biter.
 
We aren’t wanting to waste good broth or meat. We have a family of seven. If they are not productive in eggs then they need to be broth . Waste not want not. We aren’t a hobby farm we’re a working farm
You could be culling way too early and depending on what breeds you have. Often chickens moved will stop laying for a while. Sounds like you should model yourself after commercial poultry farms. Replace the oldest half every other year.. Either start each year with 1/2 your number of new chicks or 1/2 pullets ready to lay and buy production birds. They eat a lot less if money is your concern, And you would be culling before you waste food on molting non productive birds. But then you waste time for limited and scrawny meat. Raising appropriate birds just for meat seems a more appropriate use of resources. Many people do keep two flocks.
 

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