The Tragedy of Attrition
Third draft:
this afternoon I crunched and crunched and re-crunched the meagre data I have on ‘emu-graphics’: how many emus are there in any given area (under my observation)? There are a number of reasons why I did this. Details on request.
And gee . . . I got some really interesting results!!!
I think:
# there are fewer birds than I thought
# I have observed/sighted more of them than I thought
# there are fewer birds elsewhere than I thought
# another way of saying this is that the birds are just as focussed on the ‘round of human-made pastures’ as we thought, but there are not nearly so many wandering around elsewhere.
Here’s the really interesting part, though:
Attrition of Chicks
Note One: we have a surprising amount of actual data on this subject.
Note Two: here is our Interim Equation: on just ‘my place’ (1.5 miles square), I know a certain number of birds from repeated sightings. ‘Kay . . . now double that number – no!
triple it! Call that the adult population, and assume that that group is more isolated than we thought (which is the conclusion I reached).
That gives us 33 adult wild emus.
Next: we assume that ‘D Day’ is a hypothetical day on which the first egg in a nest hatches. We assume eight fertile eggs per nest, which I think is reasonable. [Do you guys?]
So, we have sightings of six clutches since D Day. At 8 eggs per nest, that’s 48 hatchlings by the time the last egg hatches.
First Conclusion: a week after D Day, there are more chicks on this block than adult emus!!
Now it gets ugly: here is what we know:
One: Boy Emu’s clutch lost 4 out of a possible 9 before he hit the trail.
40%
Two: if we assume that the clutch from which Greedy, Felicity, and Number One came was normal – 8 – that means that 5 were lost before I ever saw them. I lost Number One when she was a young adult. [R.I.P. Number One.], and Greedy would almost certainly have died except for my intervention. So, if we count Greedy as lost, then we have one datum (from four and a half years) of the total attrition of a single clutch: 7 out of 8 = 86% if we count Number One. 75% if we don’t.
Three: my single encounter with Peter Parent Emu caused the loss of 2 out of 8 ‘seen chicks.’ (It’s irrelevant that we rescued the chicks.) That’s 25% in a single afternoon.
Four: we have sightings of 4 parenting males at The 500, and we’ll allow 5 chicks per clutch. Some of those chicks were still pretty young. So, at that fairly early stage, we already had an attrition of 12 out of 32. That’s 35%.
Five: Six: Eric’s 2012 clutch has already suffered 75% attrition.
We shall omit all non-solid data. For example, I have seen several clutches of six chicks at about a year of age, and a clutch of one at about a year of age. Overall, though, if we then extrapolate the figures even most conservatively – for example, we assume that Boy Emu lost only one more chick in the remaining 103 weeks before those chicks would be ‘adult’ (let alone of breeding-age!!) – then the total attrition rate is on the top side of 60%.
Supreme Emu