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The question you ask about when the dogs are chicken safe unsupervised is the most difficult to answer. I have had a lot of dogs during my life and no two where the same in regards to how long it took for the chicken safe condition to be realized. They also varied as to how they behaved once they became trustworthy which makes the answer tricky. Border collie simply totally ignored birds totally and this happened after a single day of work. That dog was never confined and was acquired as an adult (history was not known as acquired as stray). Dalmations varied greatly and still had aggression issue when birds approached dog food. Black and tan hounds used for coons and foxes (rather different dogs with respect to looks and behavior) where the breed I worked with the most. I only truly trained one of those and she was considered exceptionally smart even by my elders who had lots of hounds. She was the dog I trained in about a day not to mess with chickens with help from brood hen in back yard. As a pup she got hammered a couple times after killing some chicks and even a battle damaged cock tied to tractor. That same dog later learned to help me catch specific birds off walks, often more than one in just a few minutes, by running down the bird I started her on and only it was pursued. She could catch bird without damaging a feather and hold it down until I picked it up. When I was done, so was she. She was very easy to read and walked or ran differently around the birds in a manner I and birds could see was not threatening. How the tail and ears was held was informative. The dogs I did not train got there hinnies whipped when they got into birds and where already in the process of being trained for other purposes which made the process easier. Again, the birds behaved more calmly around those dogs once the dogs lost interest in them. Of the current dogs, Scoob comes fairly close to the hound I trained, but he has not been worked as long or thoroughly. She, like Scoob was trustworthy at less than a year (still pups to me) but Scoob did not get truly competent at his job until he was a good 18 months old. The female coonhound (Hype was her name) did not hit her stride until she was about four which is typical for slow maturing black and tans. Lucy has been the most problematic I have ever worked with. She is very smart and is just now becoming trustworthy at about 18 months. I have to get on to her every time she gets after chickens in a new situation. She leaves adults and chicks alone but goes after juveniles whenever she encounters them in a new situation. When she encounters one outside where it normally goes, she is after it and actually caught a juvenile stag in cockyard-1 just the other day that does not normally have any free-range birds in it. I had to get onto her about it. When I released stag back into the area around cockyard-2 Lucy showed no interest in it. I suspect she will catch and harm any juveniles that are outside their normal free-range territories and the birds themselves may be setting her off. She can distinguish a bird on home or alien turf by the way it acts as can I. I am still working on this issue and making head way but getting her in line has not been a black and white process.
The key is the birds themselves, they can tell when the dog is up to now good. Broody hens are really good at it. If the birds are calm. they perceive no threat. Chicks and one eyed birds are not good for this. A given dog can change its ways quickly if it is one that is not trustworthy in your absence. Lucy was there when about a year old. I had to watch her when she could not see me and bust her in the act which took time. Scoob would also roll her once I got on to her. The chickens at that time seemed able to tell she could turn on and off. Despite the problems Lucy has caused, I am confident she will make a very good dog. She is out right now in dark patrolling somewhere among pens and a about four hens with chicks roosting on ground in pasture. She will be working out all night and usually takes lead when detecting threats. She is the proactive dog while Scoob is the reactive dog that provides the muscle.
The behavior of the chickens is the key and I do not have a hard and dry method for knowing the answer you seek. I have lots of birds and those out now are expendable so if she does slip up the losses can be absorbed as part of her training process. At this point the worst is past and she has already prevented more losses than she causes, especially when you see what I can get away with in terms of how my birds are housed or not. My front porch flock gets absolutely no protection except that provided by the dogs.
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