Straight run odds.

[David61]

TSC has some straight run chicks. What are the odds on these being pullets?
Have they sexed some poulets out and the the odds of getting cockerels higher?

 

[Sally PB]

I bought 3 TSC straight run Buff Orps. All cockerels.

My neighbor has bought (I don't know how many) straight run from two different TSC stores. All Pullets.

 

[Predoggg]

I guess it is a bit of luck. I did not get straight run from TSC but from a different hatchery and mine is 6 roosters to 7 hens.

 

[Mrs. K]

I think it may strongly depend if you have an order in, or if you are pulling them out of the bin on the floor.

I assume that a hatch should be close to 50/50. Sent to the store. But while it is difficult to tell the sex of chicks at that age. A person pulling a dozen out, depending on which dozen they get, could really sway the numbers left in the bin.

Say you have 100 chicks in the bin, 50 pullets, 50 cockerels. !st pick - could get 50/50, but could also get 30/70. The more that they took should give closer odds to 50/50. But if the draw out is small, it could easily be much more lopsided. Say buyer 1 grabs a dozen, randomly gets 4 pullets and 8 cockerels.

But now that leaves 46 pullets, and 42 cockerels. Say buyer two, grabs 20. Getting 15 cockerels and 5 pullets...now you can see that the odds are really swinging in favor of the 3rd buyer getting more pullets - but all of it is random chance.

Probably more than you wanted (but I am teaching random population sampling next week and brushed up on it).

Mrs K

 

[Ridgerunner]

TSC has some straight run chicks. What are the odds on these being pullets?
Have they sexed some poulets out and the the odds of getting cockerels higher?

Worse than getting them straight run from a hatchery or from hatching your own for two reasons. Not because some conspiracy is planning on taking over the world by giving you more cockerels or TSC or any other feed store enjoys torturing their customers.

While it is hard to be sure about the sex of chicks early on, there are some signs that might indicate boy versus girl. Boys sometimes have an upright posture while the girls are more likely to be bent over. Sometimes body shape can indicate one or another. Boys are typically more curious and braver. They will come out to the front to meet people while the girls hang in the back. Knowing this and if the customer is allowed to select which chicks they want some people can get mostly girls, which leaves mostly boys behind for you.

Since the boys are more likely to come out to meet you people perceive them to be the friendlier chicks. They have personality while the girls hanging in the back are bland. Since you want friendly chicks you are more likely to end up with more boys if you are doing the choosing.

If you happen to come after someone that knows how to pick chicks or if you fall into the trap of picking the friendly chicks your odds of getting more boys increases. Not everyone knows how to pick pullets so it is a matter of luck who you follow. Someone may have selected the friendly chicks so your odds for pullets are better.

One of my stories. I checked out the chicks at my local TSC one spring and saw a bin marked free run ISA Browns. There were about 3 dozen yellow chicks in there and only two reddish chicks. The manager at that TSC knew what red sex links were but she did not know that ISA Browns were red sex links until I mentioned it. Some of her customers did because they had already taken all but two of the pullets.

 

[neo71665]

50/50 same if you hatch them out yourself

 

[David61]

While it is hard to be sure about the sex of chicks early on, there are some signs that might indicate boy versus girl. Boys sometimes have an upright posture while the girls are more likely to be bent over. Sometimes body shape can indicate one or another. Boys are typically more curious and braver. They will come out to the front to meet people while the girls hang in the back. Knowing this and if the customer is allowed to select which chicks they want some people can get mostly girls, which leaves mostly boys behind for you.

Since the boys are more likely to come out to meet you people perceive them to be the friendlier chicks. They have personality while the girls hanging in the back are bland. Since you want friendly chicks you are more likely to end up with more boys if you are doing the choosing.

ok, i put this to the test. I just picked six California tans doing this method The girl at tsc let me pick out of the bin. I stuck my hand down in the bin and got still. They all ran away at first. Then heads popped up and some turned and came at. me. Those got passed over. The ones hanging back, head down, kind of bland got picked. so i got girls or a bunch of sickly runts lol.
who thinks there is something to this?
Whats your guess on the six new chicks?
Check back in five weeks.

 

[David61]

well i just noticed a color difference on the legs. One chick has a darker shank. the others bright pink. mmmmmmmmm
California tan is a cross between Production Reds and White Leghorns.

 

[SueT]

Can’t wait to find out how the ’bland’ test works out!!!

 

[Geena]

50/50 same if you hatch them out yourself

I've always wondered about that. I don't buy chicks from the store but I've always assumed that the hatcheries might put some of their extra cockerels into the straight runs bound for TSC just to fluff out the orders and make a few extra bucks.