The math behind “straight-run” (RESULTS)

[haTHOR]

Quote:
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[twentynine]

Quote:
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What I mean-----

Not being a math guy or a science guy so I don't know all the proper terms.

It's playing the odds.

Take two chicks dye one red, one white, close your eyes and pick up one chick. The odds of picking up the white or the red is 50/50. But if you pick up the red one 10 times consecutively, does it make it more likely that you will pick up the white one next. No. No matter how many times you pick up the red or white chick consecutively, the odds never change they are and they always remain 50/50.

Now if you want to figure the odds on picking up the red chick 10 times consecutively, it's way way less than 50/50, but the numbers never changes.

No matter how many times you figure "fate" "karma" "juju" or "kismet" the math never changes, odds stay the same.

25 straight run chicks from the hatchery, odds say you should get as close to 50/50 as the numbers allow. But any one sample could be skewed in either direction, because their is no process of selection other than final count. However if you take the overall hatch and overall distribution of straight run chicks, their should be a core group around the 50/50 ratio mark. But because their is no process of selection the actual ratio, any one order could vary from 25r-0f to 0m-25f. If you sample 100, 1000 or 10,000 25 straight run chick orders, the core of that group should be around the 50/50 mark, but you will have some individual orders that vary considerably.

So maybe random was not the proper word to use.

 

[Ridgerunner]

I think the whole point of this is not that someone will occasionally get a strange distribution from a true straight run, but are the hatcheries honest. For smaller orders I'll stick a distribution on this post to demonstrate the odds of getting strange distributions. From the posts of people that have worked at hatcheries, I think the answer is that some are honest, some are not, and some are part of the time.

It is hard to get a truly random sample as others have discussed. I think this is a valiant effort but don't consider it conclusive. For one thing all hatcheries are lumped together. One or two dishonest ones will tar all the hatcheries with the same brush. Getting a statistically significant random sample of the different hatcheries would be really hard. Maybe if you redo this, you might include all shipments, not just meat birds. I think if a hatchery is honest or dishonest, it will show up in all there orders, not just a few. You could get a larger sample that way.

Thanks for the effort and the thread.

1 chick

1 male 0 female - 1 in 2 or 50%
0 male 1 female - 1 in 2 or 50%

2 chicks

2 male 0 female - 1 in 4 or 25%
1 male 1 female - 2 in 4 or 50%
0 male 2 female - 1 in 4 or 25%


3 chicks

3 male 0 female - 1 in 8 or 12.5%
2 male 1 female - 3 in 8 or 37.5%
1 male 2 female - 3 in 8 or 37.5%
0 male 3 female - 1 in 8 or 12.5%

4 chicks

4 male 0 female - 1 in 16 or 6.3%
3 male 1 female - 4 in 16 or 25.0%
2 male 2 female - 6 in 16 or 37.5%
1 male 3 female - 4 in 16 or 25.0%
0 male 4 female - 1 in 16 or 6.3%


5 chicks

5 male 0 female - 1 in 32 or 3.1%
4 male 1 female - 5 in 32 or 15.6%
3 male 2 female - 10 in 32 or 31.3%
2 male 3 female - 10 in 32 or 31.3%
1 male 4 female - 5 in 32 or 15.6%
0 male 5 female - 1 in 32 or 3.1%


6 chicks

6 male 0 female - 1 in 64 or 1.6%
5 male 1 female - 6 in 64 or 9.4%
4 male 2 female - 15 in 64 or 23.4%
3 male 3 female - 20 in 64 or 31.3%
2 male 4 female - 15 in 64 or 23.4%
1 male 5 female - 6 in 64 or 9.4%
0 male 6 female - 1 in 64 or 1.6%

7 chicks

7 male 0 female - 1 in 128 or 0.8%
6 male 1 female - 7 in 128 or 5.5%
5 male 2 female - 21 in 128 or 16.4%
4 male 3 female - 35 in 128 or 27.3%
3 male 4 female - 35 in 128 or 27.3%
2 male 5 female - 21 in 128 or 16.4%
1 male 6 female - 7 in 128 or 5.5%
0 male 7 female - 1 in 128 or 0.8%

8 chicks

8 male 0 female - 1 in 256 or 0.4%
7 male 1 female - 8 in 256 or 3.1%
6 male 2 female - 28 in 256 or 10.9%
5 male 3 female - 56 in 256 or 21.9%
4 male 4 female - 70 in 256 or 27.3%
3 male 5 female - 56 in 256 or 21.9%
2 male 6 female - 28 in 256 or 10.9%
1 male 7 female - 8 in 256 or 3.1%
0 male 8 female - 1 in 256 or 0.4%

 

[Camelot Farms]

I would be interested in seeing this study done on home hatched eggs.
One could assume that when my broodies hatch out a clutch that I could expect a 50/50 ratio of cockerel to pullet.

That seldom happens here

This years clutches have been:

3 cockerel, 2 pullet
1 cockerel, 3 pullet
3 cockerel, 1 pullet
2 cockerel, 1 pullet

This happens to be a 'cockerel year' lol. As was last year and the year before. lol
I keep hoping for a 'pullet year'.



I selected 14 chicks from st run bins at the feed store via Mt Healthy Hatchery. Selection method...reach in and grab.
BO 1 cockerel, 3 hens
SS 1 cockerel, 3 hens
EE 4 cockerel, 2 hens

I like a gamble

 

[rsf31tmp]

I ordered a dozen straight run SLW and when it was all said and done....9 cockerals and 4 pullets.

 

[twentynine]

Without quoting Ridgerunner's entire post--- that's what I was trying to say.

 

[Bossroo]

I am in the Arabian horse business... there are many ads in the trade magazines touting that their stallion sires 70 or 80% fillies, as the fillies are desired and being more valuable. While in the TBs it is the colts that are desired and more valuable , therefore more colts are claimed to be born. Seems that in reading up on the year end statistics for each breed that the sex ratio is quite close to 50-50. Then , when the sire is older and their daughters start to produce winners, they are tauted to be broodmare sires.

 

[augustmomx2]

Very interesting...thanks for the info

 

[augustmomx2]

Double post....sorry