- Thread starter
- #451
You sound like my kind of nerd.____
31 / 378 = ~ 12.2 days, or approximately 12 days 5 hours from when that last person registered. That assumes, of course, that registrations are evenly spread across the day/24 hour period, AND that that previous 24 hour period is a good representation of registrations on any day. (note, that value above is rounded to the nearest hour, as per the rules!)
However, I had already done a rough calculation based on @casportpony 's initial post ( looking at day and time), and when I logged in to guess (checking the # of members then), and the # of registrations per day is clearly not linear (it averaged 22 new members per day then). If someone has an idea of the regression line of registrations over the year, they could easily calculate to within a 24 hour period! I will say, based on the 470,000 member contest, being within 24 hours could possibly get you in the top 4!!!!
Okay, before everyone's eye completely glaze over, I'll show myself out.
P.S. I've giving everyone a not so subtle hint ( or set of hints????) I should probably amend my guess given this new data...but I'll just leave it be. After all, statistics is always a 'look backward' to estimate the future...so I'm well aware that while it is usually our best option, it is also always only our 'best educated guess'
Remind me to show you a spreadsheet after this contest ends, k?
