Hatching reassurance please

[Kirmi8]

Hi, all.

So, I did not plan to have any chicks this year due to HPAI and some space constraints. But my Brahma hen, Greta, decided differently and apparently had been stashing eggs for a while. I noticed her missing last Sunday (May 29th) and found her tucked away under the tarp on my straw bales against the coop and in the fenced run. She had 20 eggs there and was sitting on 12. I discarded the 8 that were outside of her nest area and then moved her remaining eggs up onto the bale as it seemed a little safer and easier for her to cover the eggs. Since I can't for sure remember when I had seen her at night in the coop, I didn't want to take half grown eggs away from her, so I guess she gets to try her at being a momma. I feel terrible that I missed her for a few days (had a mad panic when I couldn't find her). I'm guessing we are at about day 10 based on my timeline and my inexperienced candling.

So, needing some reassurance about likelihood of number of chicks that will actually hatch from the 12, worried about excess amount of roosters, and then worried how I'm going to house an additional 12 chickens this winter . I was thinking that next year I would want to add a max 6 hens to my flock.

Currently have:
1 EE rooster (1 year)
15 leghorns (2 years)
4 bantams (2 years)
5 Easter eggers (1 year)
3 Brahmas (1.5 years)
3 Buff Orpingtons (1.5 years)
3 barred Rocks (1.5 years)
4 BYMs (1.5 years)
Total: 38 birds in about a 115 sq foot coop with 12 ceilings. And approx 350 sq outdoor run. Everyone was fine through the winter and seemed like a good number to keep everyone warm, but was a lot of poop to clean up. Am I going to need a secondary pen?

First time hatching anything obviously. And I realized I'm maxed for space. Be gentle with me, lol. Chicken math has clearly taken a hold. And I will be removing this hiding spot as soon as babies are hatched to avoid anymore unplanned brooding from happening.

 

[BrandonsBirbs]

She does look very sweet, and with respect to your hatching chances it could be 2 eggs that hatch or it could be 12. All depends on how well she's been doing! You could always candle them when she goes to get food at some point and see. Also remember she may have been sitting on some eggs before others were laid and so on, so some could be a couple of days behind the others.

 

[BrandonsBirbs]

For help with candling: https://www.backyardchickens.com/ar...ion-through-incubation-of-chicken-eggs.47879/

 

[Kirmi8]

She does look very sweet, and with respect to your hatching chances it could be 2 eggs that hatch or it could be 12. All depends on how well she's been doing! You could always candle them when she goes to get food at some point and see. Also remember she may have been sitting on some eggs before others were laid and so on, so some could be a couple of days behind the others.

Yeah, that's what I was thinking. There were about 4 that felt cooler than the rest when I moved them, so I marked them differently. I'm assuming they will either be behind or not viable. She's been consistently sitting and I've only seen her off the nest about once a day.

 

[Battlepants]

So, if I'm reading that right, you only have 1 rooster for 37 hens at the moment?

In this case, I would estimate that a good deal of the eggs under this one probably aren't fertile. You could go the route of candling if you want to get a headstart on your planning for these chicks, but my estimation is something like 6 are fertile that that roo to hen ratio.

Beyond that, nature is going to take over and some will hatch, some will not. Also, depends on your hens experience and motherly drives, I estimate 4-5 of them hatch.

Then from there, it's a straight 50/50 ratio of roos to hens, so going to hope for some good luck and say 2 roos, 3 hens.

Of course, this is all speculation on my part, these numbers can go wildly different depending on the actual circumstances at your place. But, I feel like you might be safe in expecting 6 or less hens from this. And from the roo perspective, you might actually need some additional roos if you intend to hatch out more eggs.

 

[Kirmi8]

So, if I'm reading that right, you only have 1 rooster for 37 hens at the moment?

In this case, I would estimate that a good deal of the eggs under this one probably aren't fertile. You could go the route of candling if you want to get a headstart on your planning for these chicks, but my estimation is something like 6 are fertile that that roo to hen ratio.

Beyond that, nature is going to take over and some will hatch, some will not. Also, depends on your hens experience and motherly drives, I estimate 4-5 of them hatch.

Then from there, it's a straight 50/50 ratio of roos to hens, so going to hope for some good luck and say 2 roos, 3 hens.

Of course, this is all speculation on my part, these numbers can go wildly different depending on the actual circumstances at your place. But, I feel like you might be safe in expecting 6 or less hens from this. And from the roo perspective, you might actually need some additional roos if you intend to hatch out more eggs.

Okay, phew. I can manage with 6 if that works lol. She is a hen that is usually around my rooster often, so I'm assuming he breeds her frequently. I originally had 2 roosters but one was awful to the hens and destroying feathers like crazy, so he had to go. My current rooster is a very nice guy and if we end up with another rooster from him I think it would be okay to have 2 again as his temperament is so good. So if I end up with 5 hens and 1 rooster I will consider that the chicken hatch lottery .

 

[Kirmi8]

Attempted to candle a couple of them...I can't see vessels but the shell is fairly dark. Sorry these aren't ideal pictures. I was trying the balance egg and phone and not disturb her too much (and it's still kind of light outside). Do these fit with a day 10 timeline?

 

[Kirmi8]

And we have one baby so far