Heavier than normal fall molt predicted hard winter?

[Foristers]

Well, it is kind of important to consider the level of experience of the person posing the theory. If you've only been through a few molts, it may seem a stark contrast from a light first year molt compared to a second or third year molt. Someone who has kept a flock for many years will have a large depth of experience, and will have better context and understanding of the molting process and it's hows and whys.

I'm curious too....
...for the reasons Junebuggena states here:

That question was answer above.

Aart - the original all buff orpingotn flock came from Murry McMurry.

 

[Foristers]

To the main point, have you had any one flock for more than two years? If not, I suspect the differences in molt are more to do with first time molt compared to subsequent molts rather than having anything to do with the weather.

The Virginia chickens I had for about 5 years until they were gradually picked off by coyotes. I gave the last two away in 2012ish.

 

[Foristers]

I don't have any chickens yet, so I asked my grandpa and grandma-in law (who have chickens) if they Had a heavy molt and egg production drop, now I'm just waiting for them to reply over text message.

I would love to find out! And where in the country they are as well.

 

[Foristers]

I love a good theory, and debate.

From my experiences how hard or soft they molt has to do with their personal egg production. Better layers seem to molt harder.

I believe a chicken can thicken up it's coat of feathers based on the weather and upcoming winter, though it may not tie into the molt, but other species winter coat thickness is tied into their molt or shedding, so I think chickens would too.

I have heard that also, about good layers and a quick molt. Why do you think egg production would be so low or stop all together?

 

[junebuggena]

Well it was answered above. And since I answered I am going to re-ask my question: Have I offended anyone in some way? Because I now have 3 people interested in how many years I have raised chickens.

I will admit that I am no grand master of chicken raising and I am merely proposing an idea. If I have offended anyone, I apologize.

Context. It makes a world of difference. You're current flock, you've only had for 2 years. You've only witnessed them go through one proper molting cycle. Your previous flock was 6 years ago. And that was prior to your being interested in molting patterns, and/or you may not remember clearly how different their first molt was from subsequent ones.

I have heard that also, about good layers and a quick molt. Why do you think egg production would be so low or stop all together?

Egg production is directly tied to light exposure. Shorter days of winter means less light. Less light means fewer eggs.
And molting birds are putting all their energy into growing in new feathers. There is nothing left over for egg production.

 

[Foristers]

Thank you. So, your current BO would have gone through their first adult molt (if hatched in spring of 2016) in fall of 2017? Is my fuzzy mental calendar correct? I'm sure with past flocks, you did notice molting patterns. I have no doubt that there are many patterns with animals AND plants that seem to go along with FUTURE weather trends. Such as: super heavy seed production prior to a super hard winter. (noted this season) Larger than usual litters of fox when the rodent population goes up. (the Vixen would have had to be pregnant long before the rodent population went up.)

As I stated previously, my 2017 pullets are blowing feathers this winter (prior to the solstice) and this has never happened before, even though I always start my chicks in April. As for my adult birds, their molt patterns have always been very individualistic. Your BO may be more predictable if they are all from the same strain.

2017 Pullets dropping feathers is odd. I haven't heard of that.
I had my Virginia chickens for about 5 years and every year molt was predictably the same and although there was "polar vortexes" and cold snaps, there was no one particular winter that was a record breaker.

The all BO flock - the original set were hatched in 2016 and when a hawk or cat got a few I got three older hens from a friend. She had 19 chickens and was willing to give up her BO's to me since I was trying an all one breed flock. Those three molted in 2016.

 

[microchick]

My original flock 18 birds, molted VERY heavily this year. In fact I have one BO hen that is still trying to get her feathers in and gain weight back and the temps last week were -14. When I say heavy, I mean heavy as in I had feather snow drifts in the corners of my coop and run.

The original flock is 3 years old and this is the heaviest that they have molted.

Oh, and egg production is almost 0. One has started to lay again but she is a coming two year old Buff O.

 

[Foristers]

you may not remember clearly how different their first molt was from subsequent ones.

I would have noticed if a feather bomb had gone off like it did this year.

Egg production is directly tied to light exposure. Shorter days of winter means less light. Less light means fewer eggs.
And molting birds are putting all their energy into growing in new feathers. There is nothing left over for egg production.

I get all that but it does not explain how egg production dropped much sharper this year than in years past.

 

[microchick]

It's really an interesting concept. I was just talking about it with my husband and he proposed that speculating that feather loss and drop in egg production meant that chickens have some way of predicting future weather trends.

I countered then maybe they do have some inner barometer or whatever that can do that. What if? I asked him. Before this polar vortex hit, I noticed that there were a lot of geese suddenly heading south. I counted three large flocks just within an hour or so of being outside working in my run and coop. They sense when the weather changes and try to move out of the way of it where they can find open water.

Maybe chickens and other molting birds can do the same thing.

 

[junebuggena]

I would have noticed if a feather bomb had gone off like it did this year.



I get all that but it does not explain how egg production dropped much sharper this year than in years past.

Different group of hens. Your previous flock may have been more gradual molters than hard molters.