Silkied Ameraucana Project

[CatKai]

It will go away, mine finally did, I found a few I really like and stick to it and don't get caught up in the newer breeds, just because I have to have them. I like Kim only have around 50 birds. Silkied AM's are the main project, I breed and show d'Uccles and I have my layers which give me my eggs and are the oldest birds I own, they raise chicks for me also. So if you are scraping pennies to feed it is time to downsize it will stress you out and then you can't concentrate on any single breed.. Just saying not trying to tell anyone what to do. I did this and my bank account grew.

 

[CatKai]

Have y'all hugged your silkied ameraucanas yet today?

lol.. I have!

 

[LBKS]

Also, for completeness since I keep re-calculating this and losing the paper I wrote it on. Also relevant to the bit above, since this is a double recessive transmitted feature. Still reformatting the table as I get some time and editing for clarity.
Certainty of Carrier Status Calculations
CrossChance of SilkiedChicks HatchedCertainty of at Least One Silkied in Hatch
Silkied x Silkied100%1100%
Silkied x Split50%150.0%
Silkied x Split50%275.0%
Silkied x Split50%387.5%
Silkied x Split50%493.7%
Silkied x Split50%596.8%
Silkied x Split50%698.4%
Silkied x Split50%799.2%
Split x Split25%125.0%
Split x Split25%243.7%
Split x Split25%357.8%
Split x Split25%468.3%
Split x Split25%576.2%
Split x Split25%682.2%
Split x Split25%786.6%
Split x Split25%889.9%
Split x Split25%999%
Split x Split25%1092.4%
Split x Split25%1194.3%
Split x Split25%1295.7%
Split x Split25%1396.8%
Split x Split25%1497.6%
Split x Split25%1598.2%
Split x Split25%1698.6%
Split x Split25%1799.2%
Certainty = 1 - (1-p)^n Where the p is the probability of a silkied chick hatching and n is the number of chicks hatched. Certainty is then the certainty that at least one silkied chick is hatched. So for example if you have a Split x Split crossing and you hatch out 17 chicks, you have a 99.2% chance that at least one will be silkied. If you did that exact same parent cross and hatched out 17 chicks 100 time total, 99 of those 100 times would have at least one chick, statistically speaking. This also means that for your 17 chicks hatched, if none were silkied then it's pretty certain that one of the parents is actually not a carrier at all. You can also see there's a huge diminishing return on the improvement of certainty over the additional chicks hatched from 14-17 in particular. So there isn't always a need to take it to the 99% benchmark. (Split x Split) x Split [p=0.25*0.5] Removed this until I re-check the math. There's some realistic factors that skew it Those are the most common ones, I'll edit in any other calculations you guys want since I'm saving this post myself for reference

 

[LBKS]

Ugly formatting, I'll have to fix it later. But this was from when I was calculating maximal and optimal outcrossing scenarios to bring in new blood. Somewhere I also have calculations for how long different methods of outcrossing to SQ/other lines before the flock composition of those offspring are 99% from the new blood. And did some calculations playing around with the inbreeding coefficient since that seems like a good metric to be aware of (high levels of it correlate strongly to health issues, low egg production, small size, etc).

 

[mstricer]

 
Now I want to put new blood in with my Silkied AM's. Kim if I put some of my Blue and Black AM's from pips and peeps would I get 50/50 on the color and splits on the Silkied

Thanks Kim. I will only be setting the Silkied at first as all the others are only chicks right now.

 

[CatKai]

Thanks Kim. I will only be setting the Silkied at first as all the others are only chicks right now.

 

[yinepu]

They need a photo shoot

Quote:

well.. they are camera shy.. and my cell phone photography skills.... stink!..

But here are two .. taken while i was cleaning brooders.. so I put them in plastic totes for the photo op..

the older chicks...


the younger ones.. there's 14 total between the two groups..

 

[LBKS]

Congrats yinepu, they look great

 

[yinepu]

Congrats yinepu, they look great

thanks!... and thanks again to CatKai for the newest additions!..

lol.. there are eggs in the bator too...

 

[mstricer]

Quote:
well.. they are camera shy.. and my cell phone photography skills.... stink!..

But here are two .. taken while i was cleaning brooders.. so I put them in plastic totes for the photo op..

the older chicks...


the younger ones.. there's 14 total between the two groups..


Very cute, I want more eggs