The math behind “straight-run” (RESULTS)

[sksmass]

Quote:
Thanks Brunty_Farms. There is nothing better than getting info from someone with experience in the industry. Even though your data point is just an n=1 sample

I am convinced by it.

So, let me understand this, what you are saying is that there are certain times of the year (spring specifically) and certain breeds (DP's specifically)where one might expect to get a skewed sex ratio but for most of the year, and for CX specifically, you can expect a 50:50 ratio on average?

 

[damselfish]

This is quite interesting, wish I'd seen your prior post. Then I would have chimed in my Feb 2008 Murray McMurray order: 6 straight run BOs, 6 straight run Barred Rock.

ELEVEN roosters.

It's unlikely I will ever be ordering from them again.

Anyway, thanks for doing this.

Edited to add: I picked this thread up from the front page and didn't realize it was a "meaties only" survey. As Gilda Radner used to say: "Never mind..."

 

[haTHOR]

Quote:
i see what you are getting at, but originally you stated that it was the ratios of orders you were interested in sampling. small difference in some ways, but a big difference in regard to "sample size". i would see about getting more of these responses and check whether your results change--then you will know for sure about the validity of your analysis.

wrt: non-random sample--yes, absolutely, we do often have to use them. even more reason to be vigilant about sample size, you know?

try constructing a new post with no references to what you received, as i do agree that your apparent hypothesis (even unstated) can bias results insofar as who will tend to respond.

now, the great thing about science and all this stuff is that if you do choose to use a more rigorous sample size and non-biased language in your new request for participants, and your results are very similar, you'll be vindicated.

 

[twentynine]

I would think that with a large enough sample, if the hatchery does not 'mess' with the mix, you will find the results to be completely random.

 

[roosterdog]

Quote:
Researchers often are stuck with non-random samples in the social sciences. Every survey you have ever taken is subject to response bias making it, in effect, non-random. But that doesn't stop researchers from drawing inferences from the data. You go to war with the data you have, not the data you'd like to have. I have no way of obtaining the data you suggest nor could a normal backyard flock raiser be expected to have access to such. I am not publishing this in Nature. I am posting it to a online community message board! If researchers really let the "perfect be the enemy of the good" in the way you suggest then science could never move forward.

Quote:
Well, I actually had no such preconceived desired outcome. In fact, in my original post I suggested that we'd actually find the hatcheries would come out close to 50:50.

Quote:
Of course! That is the case for any survey research on any topic. All surveys are subject to bias. That is why they are used in the social sciences. However, I think the conclusions are logical, the sample is believable, and the method is reasonable. You disagree. And that is fine.

Quote:
Apply a little economic common sense and Occam's razor here. Do you not think that hatcheries are aware of their bottom line? Do you think it would be in their economic best-interest to take straight-run directly "from the egg"? I don't. This is not a conspiracy, it is just business. I don't fault them for it. I totally get it.

what does CX mean? I am a new chicken owner.

 

[roosterdog]

what does CX mean?

 

[eKo_birdies]

cornish cross - it is just in reference to the white birds used for meat production. sometimes they are called broilers, cornish rocks, etc.

 

[KatieH]

Interesting. I order 15 straight run and got 8 females and 7 males.

 

[ghulst]

I work at a hatchery and if you order st run that is what you get strait from the inqubater. We save sexing time on then.

 

[Brunty_Farms]

Quote:
Thanks Brunty_Farms. There is nothing better than getting info from someone with experience in the industry. Even though your data point is just an n=1 sample

I am convinced by it.

So, let me understand this, what you are saying is that there are certain times of the year (spring specifically) and certain breeds (DP's specifically)where one might expect to get a skewed sex ratio but for most of the year, and for CX specifically, you can expect a 50:50 ratio on average?

Well, I'm just saying from my little experience from my one summer.... at one hatchery. So everyone probably does it a bit differently but for me I learned a lot about the hatchery and that industry. From what I could take every DP and rare breed was sexed even ducks. St. Run we were always told to put half males half females unless they knew they were going to be short and told us to put 70 / 30 which happened about three times in a course of a summer.

CX's were only sexed if they needed to be, they knew prior to hatch how many needed sexed. I would say out of 10,000 broilers only about 2,000 needed to be sexed. The rest were as is.... pulled from the egg hatchers straight to a box. Most orders were 100 count boxes on the broilers and all we did was add a lid band it up and let the computer guy print a shipping label.

Just my experience, but it could be different now. However I highly doubt it on the broilers.