What are the chances..?

[KikiDeAnime]

I've found another person selling ducklings. They're Chocolate Runners and they're straight run as they were hatched from their own flock's eggs. I'd really love to purchase 3 of them but I'm a bit scared of ending up with mostly males as we already have a drake. Especially since I know nobody really likes to get a free drake to add to their flock so I'd be stuck with too many drakes and I don't want to be forced to butcher them.

What are the chances of me getting 2 males from buying 3 ducklings?

 

[Jpat]

i got 6 males from 6 ducklings before

Someone sold them to me as straight run but they definitly sexed them and made an idiot out of me

its a chance we all take and it always comes down to a hard decision. But if i had the chance to get chocolate runners ide get them

 

[KikiDeAnime]

i got 6 males from 6 ducklings before

Someone sold them to me as straight run but they definitly sexed them and made an idiot out of me

its a chance we all take and it always comes down to a hard decision

Then maybe I shouldn't buy any

 

[Jpat]

Then maybe I shouldn't buy any

ide get them but thats me

 

[Ratchnick]

50-50 ratio only holds true over a large sample size, like thousands of birds. I read a post where 36 eggs were hatched from the incubator and 32 of them were male. Certainly a risk you end up with all male. Since the sample size is so small i'm not sure if you can math out your chances

 

[Peepsi]

50-50 ratio only holds true over a large sample size, like thousands of birds. I read a post where 36 eggs were hatched from the incubator and 32 of them were male. Certainly a risk you end up with all male. Since the sample size is so small i'm not sure if you can math out your chances

Yes, exactly. It is very likely that a straight run of three birds, or six birds, or nine birds...will all be males due to the small sample size.

It's like flipping a coin. You have 50/50 odds of hitting heads or tails, but it's possible to flip a coin 10 times, and get all heads. The more you flip, the more even the odds will be and you'll start seeing a 50/50 distribution.

So if you don't want to risk a male, or you don't have a plan for extra males, then don't take the risk with a straight run.

 

[KikiDeAnime]

Yes, exactly. It is very likely that a straight run of three birds, or six birds, or nine birds...will all be males due to the small sample size.

It's like flipping a coin. You have 50/50 odds of hitting heads or tails, but it's possible to flip a coin 10 times, and get all heads. The more you flip, the more even the odds will be and you'll start seeing a 50/50 distribution.

So if you don't want to risk a male, or you don't have a plan for extra males, then don't take the risk with a straight run.

Alright, thank you.
Guess I'm sticking to my current 2 duck flock for now. Luckily our drake has been leaving our female alone.

 

[FluffTheDuck]

Like @Peepsi said, it’s a 50/50 chance. Since you have one male and one female you could get them, and if there is more males then females you can have an all drake flock. I bought 9 ducks, 3 died, three turned out males, three turned out females. Now I’m hatching blue cayugas, waiting till I can voice sex them, take 2+ females and sell the rest. You really never know. I’ve heard some say, in hatcheries, they just put almost all males in straight run. In my personal experience I ALWAYS get 5+ males out of 7 if I get straight run. That’s why I always order them sexed.

 

[KikiDeAnime]

Like @Peepsi said, it’s a 50/50 chance. Since you have one male and one female you could get them, and if there is more males then females you can have an all drake flock. I bought 9 ducks, 3 died, three turned out males, three turned out females. Now I’m hatching blue cayugas, waiting till I can voice sex them, take 2+ females and sell the rest. You really never know. I’ve heard some say, in hatcheries, they just put almost all males in straight run. In my personal experience I ALWAYS get 5+ males out of 7 if I get straight run. That’s why I always order them sexed.

Unfortunately we can't have an all drake flock. My parents have only agreed on me getting 2 females only We actually wouldn't even have ducks at all but we do because I rescued our drake as a duckling and I knew he'd need a female buddy so we have 1 female currently.

 

[KikiDeAnime]

The lady selling the ducklings has assured me that she will take back any males and either give me my money back or trade for females if she keeps some so I'm going to buy the ducklings