Matt, Smart's comments are true. Hogan's system is not a breeding program. It often is not the case, where the best performing birds, produce excellent performing birds. It was also shown later to not be as reliable as originally thought. It is reliable enough, for backyard, or small farm.
The commercial industry moved towards "proving" the performance (more reliable), and proving the breeders. Particularly the sires, because of how much influence they have. They would test huge amounts of males, and track the inheritance. That is a breeding program.
There is so many examples where the best birds do not produce the best birds, not matter what traits are considered. One example is studies where the inheritance of resistance to particular pathogens was not found to be reliably produced by parents that were themselves resistant. They made faster progress by test mating survivors that did succumb as well as those that did not. Using both allows the breeder to make faster progress. This would be a bad way to manage disease in a small flock however. These were flocks that were intentionally exposed. Obviously the best management tool in a small flock is to cull any bird that gets sick.
That sounds crude to some but the strain of birds worked with is better adapted to their environment through the generations of birds, but especially the breeders.
What this shows, in part, I believe, is the inheritable influence of the family behind the birds.
When a gene pool is tightened up, like in a well bred exhibition birds, the results are reliable. But of course there is still some degree of variation in the flock. Selecting the best birds is generally the best idea. It is usually noted along the way where one bird produces more of tis or that, and therefore useful for this or that. Possibly a bird that is not especially strong themselves.
Proving the breeders in my Catalana flock will be part of the process. Of course I am picking the best offspring to move forward with, but I need to emphasize the breeders that have produced well, or a trait where I am short.
Hogan's system is not as perfect as it was once thought. There are some exaggerations that go along with it. It is still the best system for us, when we keep the other systems in mind.
I think the best options for us is to use the basics of this system to identify who comes into lay first, who goes into molt last, who comes back into lay first, weed out chronic non producers etc. With the absence of trap nests, this is our best option.
Obviously, we should be using the best producers from the best typed birds, in keeping with what defines the breed. Also raise them as closely to the system that they fit the best, because different birds will sometimes perform better or worse under particular conditions. They always do better when they are "happy",
Matt this is addressed to you, but written for the general audience. Some thoughts to consider.
