https://data.cms.gov/covid-19/covid-19-nursing-home-data
and
Simple analysis of that data
"... [From] Weekly infection, mortality reports from over 15,000 US nursing homes who were required to report their numbers to Medicare (aka CMS). ...
I simply compute the dead:alive for the period after the vax (Feb 2021 to May 2021) and divide it by the dead:alive for the period before the vax (Jun 2020 to the end of Jan 2021). I combined all the numbers from all 15,000 nursing homes with no omissions.
If the vaccine works, the ratio will be <1.
If the vaccine does nothing, the ratio will be 1 (assuming the same variant is in circulation which is true for the restricted time frame I used).
If the vaccine is making things worse and making you more likely to die, the ratio will be >1.
The ratio was 1.75
...
Next
...
instead of counting the number of facilities where the IFR [infection fatality rate] got better or worse, I’m just adding up all the numbers of infections and all the deaths and computing the after/before odds ratio.
This is simple to understand.
I computed the overall IFR on the period before the vax.
I computed the overall IFR on the period after the vax.
That’s it.
If the vax worked, the new IFR should be dramatically lower.
...
Prevax is 0.171345161
Postvax is 0.278653426
This means that if you get COVID right after you got the vaccine, you are 1.6 times more likely to die (compute from .278/.171)
..."
Hm... he may have gotten a little sloppy with his verb tenses in that last paragraph - this was all limited to a short time frame to minimize the effect of different variants.
and
Simple analysis of that data
"... [From] Weekly infection, mortality reports from over 15,000 US nursing homes who were required to report their numbers to Medicare (aka CMS). ...
I simply compute the dead:alive for the period after the vax (Feb 2021 to May 2021) and divide it by the dead:alive for the period before the vax (Jun 2020 to the end of Jan 2021). I combined all the numbers from all 15,000 nursing homes with no omissions.
If the vaccine works, the ratio will be <1.
If the vaccine does nothing, the ratio will be 1 (assuming the same variant is in circulation which is true for the restricted time frame I used).
If the vaccine is making things worse and making you more likely to die, the ratio will be >1.
The ratio was 1.75
...
Next
...
instead of counting the number of facilities where the IFR [infection fatality rate] got better or worse, I’m just adding up all the numbers of infections and all the deaths and computing the after/before odds ratio.
This is simple to understand.
I computed the overall IFR on the period before the vax.
I computed the overall IFR on the period after the vax.
That’s it.
If the vax worked, the new IFR should be dramatically lower.
...
Prevax is 0.171345161
Postvax is 0.278653426
This means that if you get COVID right after you got the vaccine, you are 1.6 times more likely to die (compute from .278/.171)
..."
Hm... he may have gotten a little sloppy with his verb tenses in that last paragraph - this was all limited to a short time frame to minimize the effect of different variants.
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