Since I live in SE Louisiana (not on the coast, but not too far from it) I have been watching this one closely. We didn't have any waterfowl when our last hurricane of note passed: Gustav in 2008. We are installing hurricane strapping on all the coop roof framing this afternoon...just in case. I plan on letting the ducks out even if the hurricane is headed for us as long as the winds are under 75 mph. From what I have observed of them in severe weather, they are smart enough to go into their shelter when they need to do so. I also have several natural windbreaks they tend to take advantage of during high winds.
As to the storm:
I think the National Hurricane Center is doing a very good job with a very complex set up for this storm. It has been somewhat anomalous for a while and very interesting to watch. It had a very easy passage over Hispanola and Cuba and remained much more intact than most storms that cross those land masses.
Their is considerable divergence in the more reliable dynamic hurricane models right now (the 12Z runs from this morning). The UKMET and I think ECMWF are still showing a FL panhandle/Alabama landfall. The other 3 models, including the GFS ensemble, which is considered to be the most reliable, are showing what looks to be Houma, Louisiana, which would put NOLA in the dirty side of the storm (NE quadrant). Right now they still have a moderately low confidence in the track of the storm, which is causing a lot of folks to get impatient on some of the weather forums.
The hurricane hunter aircraft are in the storm right now, and the National Weather Service have many buoys and balloons deployed as well. All that information will be input into the next set of model runs.
The bigger question will be intensity. This is taking a Katrina or possibly Rita like track (strangely would make landfall on Katrina track on the 7 year anniversary of that storm) at the moment. The potential heat content of the water in the Gulf is not nearly as high as it was in 2005, which should restrict rapid intensification (their are fewer eddies in the loop current this year as well). However, the more westerly the track, the warmer the deep water the storm will pass over. Either way, most reliable sources are saying no more than a Cat. 3 prior to landfall and more likely a Cat. 2. Usually, as they approach land, the shallow water cools the core of the storm and it draws in drier continental air and they tend to lose a bit of intensity before landfall.
The size of the storm is of concern though: The wind field extends over 205 miles from the center, which is only slightly smaller than Katrina was. This means that if it can get its act together with a closed eye wall and spin up as soon as today, it will be pushing a large amount of water ahead of it. Storms like this traditionally produce significantly higher surge than smaller storms, as was the case with both Katrina and Ike. The amount of kinetic energy produced by these sprawling storms is incredible.
Anyway, sorry for meteorology 101: I like to be prepared and read a lot. Good luck to anyone within the National Hurricane Center's Cone of Uncertainty for this storm. Keep on your toes and stay safe.
