Economics Current Info - If you're not interested just pass it by!

[PurpleChicken]

Quote:
That was a great find!!! Almost nothing on there is easy. In the end I almost checked every one and had to work backwards unchecking the things I thought were important enough not to be cut. I've gotta bookmark that one.

 

[Dunkopf]

That's really cool. It shows a lot of whats on the table. I was able to get a surplus. Checked all the military stuff except the benefits for soldiers and families. Went for the lower estate taxes too. Naturally selected the tax cut expiration for over 250k and the added tax for millionaires. Made some cuts in health spending too. Cut govt income 5%. Didn't eliminate contractors because that would lose jobs. Cut earmarks, I figure our reps need to pass bills without special deals being made.

What's so hard? If Congress wasn't in the pockets of the millionaires it would be a no brainer for them. Go with what helps the majority. I should run for Congress.

 

[Organics North]

Quote:

You know what..... if they actually stopped helping themselves and the special interest lobbies, if we actually passed meaningful reform laws.....THEN I would be open minded to cuts that hurt the poor and working class... FIRST I need to see them get their hands out of the cookie jar...

PC do you mind sharing more detail on what you did not cut??

ON

 

[Dunkopf]

I wouldn't mind the additional consumption tax. Problem with taxes on consumption is that they reduce consumption. If you all remember, that was one of the things that started the recession. People started saying the sky was falling and everyone ran inside. Then businesses started shutting doors and the sky really did fall. A consumption tax or a huge sales tax as has been proposed would reduce sales of goods. More job losses.

I could see cutting the amount of the child tax credit and the earned income credit by say 20%. Not eliminate it though. We don't need extra nukes, we don't need troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, The military could be trimmed some. Foreign aid reduction particularly for countries that are just using it to build their military, 50% would be a great cut. Obama needs to break out that scalpel he was talking about in the debates and find the wasted money. Rich people can afford a few extra percent in taxes. It's their country too. They have benefited greatly by what is offered in this country, they have a much larger stake than most people. It's time for them to take one for the team and give back some of what they have pulled from the system. Taxing rich people a little more will not discourage people from making more money. That's just silly. We're not saying anything you make over a certain amount goes to the government. We're just saying that the extra 3% is badly needed and should never have been cut in the 1st place. To be fair I could support a slightly higher income tax on those above 50k Maybe an extra 3%. It would be a bummer, but if the rich have to take a hit then the middle class can give a little too. By the way I would be in that bracket. Leave the people below 50k alone though.

I can't support welfare cuts. I heard that Great Britain has a much larger percentage of people on welfare than we do. They are implementing programs where welfare recipients have to take jobs if they are able bodied and a job is offered. They are also creating jobs for welfare recipients that are able bodied and the pay is their welfare payment. I would not be opposed to those 2 items. People that can work should work. It might encourage them to get a job of their choosing instead of what they are given. They could screen people and give them jobs at government run daycare facilities so indigent mothers could get a job.

It will be interesting to see what they come up with. I bet the rich come out pretty well though. Being Mega Rich, priceless.

 

[Ridgerunner]

That was a fun one and it shows how hard it really is. What might be fun is to look back at your selections and see which ones you think have an actual chance of being enacted. I’m not sure he ones that will probably have a chance are the ones I would select but to reduce the deficit, we have to be able to enact them.
Let me discuss the first one, Foreign Aid. To most Americans, I think this is an automatic check-off. To me, it is not automatic.

First, a basic fact. There are different design standards in different parts of the world. I’m not talking about metric versus English systems; I’m talking about basic design philosophy. For example, if an American or Western European designs a boiler, we will put enough safety devices and maintenance and operating criteria on it that it will not blow up. In the former Soviet Union, the design philosophy is that it is going to blow up, so contain the explosion. So any Western company that bids on projects with boilers that have the specifications of the former Soviet Union is at a disadvantage. They will include the pressure safety highs, level safety lows, and relief valves that are part of their basic design, but their bid will be rejected unless they also include the cost of a blast wall. I’ve worked on those projects. Hopefully I have established that there are some differences in specifications and they do count.

Angola, Africa has finished a long civil war and is using its oil revenue to try to build some infrastructure for the country. I’m sure some of the oil revenue is going into Swiss bank accounts, but they are spending a whole lot on infrastructure. In a swap for Angolan oil, the Chinese have a tremendous number of Chinese workers in the country, building that infrastructure; roads, railroads, harbors, airports, schools, hospitals, whatever. Others are there too, such as the Japanese and the hospital in Luanda, but the Chinese presence is massive. This means that the equipment provided will be built to Chinese specs. The operating manuals will be written in Chinese and Portuguese, the language in Angola. The instructors provided to teach the Angolans to run that equipment will be Chinese. As part of the deal, the Chinese will provide teachers in the schools. Chinese will become a very common language in Angola, almost certainly more common than English. Chinese design philosophy will have a strong foothold in Angola.

How does this apply to Foreign Aid? It is a straight swap of oil for infrastructure, right? Not really. Some of this is provided as straight Foreign Aid. The conversion rate of oil for infrastructure is more in favor of the Angolans than what they can get for the oil on the open market. To me, this government subsidy is Foreign Aid by the Chinese.

My question is, when this equipment designed and built to Chinese standards starts to break down and needs repair, replacement parts, or pure replacement, what are the odds you, your children, or my grandchildren will get a job repairing the equipment or manufacturing the replacements? Should our government be doing anything in Angola to keep that market open now or in the future? The Chinese are securing the oil they need now, they are putting a lot of their people to work, and they are securing a market for the future. The Chinese have always had an eye for the long term.

Foreign Aid is used to secure strategic military advantages, secure a market for goods and services, and to secure a source for importing raw products (some of which are rare and vital to modern manufacturing). It is not charity, it is an investment. I really struggle with blindly checking off on a Foreign Aid reduction. I’d really like to know which Foreign Aid is being reduced.

 

[I have WHAT in my yard?]

Wow guys you are still doing a wonderful job!! I will do this again as I can. The holidays and all....

Couple of points that struck me:

Income disparity - income disparities are normal after societies reach what is referred to as a complex level os civilization, BUT, there are key points at which income disparity becomes dangerously destabilizing. Once the gap reaches that point, and the middle class dies out, the country/civilization ALWAYS (I cannot stress this enough it has held true for SO many civilizations) ends up going back to a point of very little income disparity. The problem is that in no society do the top people wake up one day and say, "Hey it might be good for the economy if I give up my cash." The return to lower disparity is always ugly and bumpy. Civil war, civil unrest revolution or extreme economic turmoil are the general rule. Some societies can carry on with extreme disparity for a while, but they are rarely places with any freedom whatsoever, and even there it only lasts a generation or two before it keels over. The US currently has an income disparity that is higher than it has ever been in our history. Yep, higher than it was during the robber baron era, higher than it was just prior to the depression. Average citizen is not at all clear about how much money that top group really has. Our top income tax bracket is $250,000 when to get into the top 1% of the country's earners, where 50% of all of the nation's wealth is, you have to have 5 million dollars just to break the barrier. We need more income brackets to cover the uber wealthy. There are so many bad numbers floating around

Media bias - Rupert Murdoch has an overt agenda. He does not hide this fact at all. He has spoken openly about how controlling the media allows you to control the people and his ambition has been to consolidate the media operations of many countries. He has successfully done this in some cases. He also has very close ties to some very unsavory characters. The US has given him many passes to do what he does. First was the extraordinary waivers of FCC rules to allow him to consolidate media outlets in any one geographic area. This was, and rudimentarily still is, illegal. You are not supposed to be allowed to have any one person or organization own the different types of media (radio, TV, papers) in any one geographic region, but Murdoch has done this with congressional allowances in several key midwest states. Take a good look at Murdoch's holdings - good luck getting a good list of his international holdings - it takes digging. Then look at the operations funded by the Koch brothers......
Other piece to this has to do with "news" the florida case that granted FOX absolution that, "just because a news organization calls what it produces news, does not mean it has to be true." was the death knell. In the UK outfits lose their license to broadcast if they are found out to have broadcast as news anything factually known to have been untrue. Here we give them a pass and shrug. Now it is entirely up to the ethics of the organization. Good luck with that. I agree with the need for public broadcasting under these conditions. It is necessary.

Foreign aid - Yemen used to get sizable aid packages from us to defeat Al Quaeda. Once we declared them out of Yemen we cut off the aid. Now they're back. Exactly what was Yemen's motivation for keeping them out?? In some cases we provide aid because it is the humanitarian thing to do. In most cases we provide aid because if a country's people are too desparate they will destabilize the government and it is often in the US's interest to keep those governments stable. If we don't like your government we have no hesitation to pull our aid or even aid those who fight against you. Ridge Runner is right on this one cutting it off, despite it being very tempting is often more expensive for us in the long run.

Dems/Repubs - well flip a coin it really doesn't matter any more. Clinton was the best republican president we ever had. Both sides are far too indebted to the special interests and the big money. Campaign finance reform is not a good idea, it s one of the only ideas that can actually save what is left of our democracy. Without serious reform, with Citizens United in play democracy has taken yet another serious body blow.

One of the most basic premises of trickle down economics is that wealthy people create jobs. And they do. Under certain circumstances, and mostly those circumstances do not exist any more. The very wealthy are looking for investment vehicles that are quick turn over. They are looking for the next best thing, not hey lets invest in a new company or even back a start up. They're not putting money raised through higher stock prices into capital reinvestment. If they refuse to put the money back into extra market (as in out of the stock market) circulation they will have to be taxed at a higher rate to force it there. That huge stimulus that was just given in the plan of QE largely left the country. I have no objection to stimulus IF IT IS DONE CORRECTLY. Throwing money at the top is actually making the issue worse. One of the issues that people struggle to grasp is that there is actually too much money at the top looking for a place to go. It is sloshing around the investment world looking for new innovations and seeking out safer currencies.

Blind adherence to any one economic philosophy as foolish. Like the political ISMs these philosophies are just that - philosophies. Come up with something new. I am not a gloom and doom person. I refuse to be swayed from my perception that there is not an atrocity large enough that the ignorance and apathy of the american voter will not let go unhindered as long as it does not interfere with their supply of Survivor episodes and Cheetohs. While that may be astonishingly cynical, there is some real truth to it. Bread and circuses really does work. The question is only how long can they keep what is, at its heart, a zombie economy floating?? I have real faith in my economic overlords to keep this thing aloft for another couple of decades.

I am working on becoming more self sufficient and growing my community based barter circles..... I participate in the economy while working on being able to manage outside of it. I have no expectations that any social contract is going to be upheld. I recommend that my kids learn mandarin.

 

[Dunkopf]

Quote:
I think you're probably right. It's tempting, but. I wish everything was as cut and dry as the talking heads would like us to believe.

I'm afraid that China is the genie that will never go back in the bottle. I believe they will have a much bigger presence in our society and our politics in the near future.

 

[Ridgerunner]

I forgot to mention that Angola has many of the same rare mineral deposits that Namibia and South Africa have, the kinds of very rare minerals vital to an advanced economy and defense. I'm not plugging Angola specifically, just trying to show how complicated it really is. Plus I worked there and have some first hand knowledge.

 

[Dunkopf]

I have WHAT in my yard? :

Wow guys you are still doing a wonderful job!! I will do this again as I can. The holidays and all....

Couple of points that struck me:

Income disparity - income disparities are normal after societies reach what is referred to as a complex level os civilization, BUT, there are key points at which income disparity becomes dangerously destabilizing. Once the gap reaches that point, and the middle class dies out, the country/civilization ALWAYS (I cannot stress this enough it has held true for SO many civilizations) ends up going back to a point of very little income disparity. The problem is that in no society do the top people wake up one day and say, "Hey it might be good for the economy if I give up my cash." The return to lower disparity is always ugly and bumpy. Civil war, civil unrest revolution or extreme economic turmoil are the general rule. Some societies can carry on with extreme disparity for a while, but they are rarely places with any freedom whatsoever, and even there it only lasts a generation or two before it keels over. The US currently has an income disparity that is higher than it has ever been in our history. Yep, higher than it was during the robber baron era, higher than it was just prior to the depression. Average citizen is not at all clear about how much money that top group really has. Our top income tax bracket is $250,000 when to get into the top 1% of the country's earners, where 50% of all of the nation's wealth is, you have to have 5 million dollars just to break the barrier. We need more income brackets to cover the uber wealthy. There are so many bad numbers floating around

Media bias - Rupert Murdoch has an overt agenda. He does not hide this fact at all. He has spoken openly about how controlling the media allows you to control the people and his ambition has been to consolidate the media operations of many countries. He has successfully done this in some cases. He also has very close ties to some very unsavory characters. The US has given him many passes to do what he does. First was the extraordinary waivers of FCC rules to allow him to consolidate media outlets in any one geographic area. This was, and rudimentarily still is, illegal. You are not supposed to be allowed to have any one person or organization own the different types of media (radio, TV, papers) in any one geographic region, but Murdoch has done this with congressional allowances in several key midwest states. Take a good look at Murdoch's holdings - good luck getting a good list of his international holdings - it takes digging. Then look at the operations funded by the Koch brothers......
Other piece to this has to do with "news" the florida case that granted FOX absolution that, "just because a news organization calls what it produces news, does not mean it has to be true." was the death knell. In the UK outfits lose their license to broadcast if they are found out to have broadcast as news anything factually known to have been untrue. Here we give them a pass and shrug. Now it is entirely up to the ethics of the organization. Good luck with that. I agree with the need for public broadcasting under these conditions. It is necessary.

Foreign aid - Yemen used to get sizable aid packages from us to defeat Al Quaeda. Once we declared them out of Yemen we cut off the aid. Now they're back. Exactly what was Yemen's motivation for keeping them out?? In some cases we provide aid because it is the humanitarian thing to do. In most cases we provide aid because if a country's people are too desparate they will destabilize the government and it is often in the US's interest to keep those governments stable. If we don't like your government we have no hesitation to pull our aid or even aid those who fight against you. Ridge Runner is right on this one cutting it off, despite it being very tempting is often more expensive for us in the long run.

Dems/Repubs - well flip a coin it really doesn't matter any more. Clinton was the best republican president we ever had. Both sides are far too indebted to the special interests and the big money. Campaign finance reform is not a good idea, it s one of the only ideas that can actually save what is left of our democracy. Without serious reform, with Citizens United in play democracy has taken yet another serious body blow.

One of the most basic premises of trickle down economics is that wealthy people create jobs. And they do. Under certain circumstances, and mostly those circumstances do not exist any more. The very wealthy are looking for investment vehicles that are quick turn over. They are looking for the next best thing, not hey lets invest in a new company or even back a start up. They're not putting money raised through higher stock prices into capital reinvestment. If they refuse to put the money back into extra market (as in out of the stock market) circulation they will have to be taxed at a higher rate to force it there. That huge stimulus that was just given in the plan of QE largely left the country. I have no objection to stimulus IF IT IS DONE CORRECTLY. Throwing money at the top is actually making the issue worse. One of the issues that people struggle to grasp is that there is actually too much money at the top looking for a place to go. It is sloshing around the investment world looking for new innovations and seeking out safer currencies.

Blind adherence to any one economic philosophy as foolish. Like the political ISMs these philosophies are just that - philosophies. Come up with something new. I am not a gloom and doom person. I refuse to be swayed from my perception that there is not an atrocity large enough that the ignorance and apathy of the american voter will not let go unhindered as long as it does not interfere with their supply of Survivor episodes and Cheetohs. While that may be astonishingly cynical, there is some real truth to it. Bread and circuses really does work. The question is only how long can they keep what is, at its heart, a zombie economy floating?? I have real faith in my economic overlords to keep this thing aloft for another couple of decades.

I am working on becoming more self sufficient and growing my community based barter circles..... I participate in the economy while working on being able to manage outside of it. I have no expectations that any social contract is going to be upheld. I recommend that my kids learn mandarin.

As usual, you are very insightful. Do you think it will be guillotines this time around?

How do you get campaign finance reform when the people that make the laws benefit so well from the current system?

I hate it. It seems like there really is nothing we can do but vote. What are we voting for though? When the TP party came along I was hoping they might change things. They all sound like they just want to send more truckloads of cash upstairs though. Eliminate government and let the robber Barrons have free rein without even the facade of some kind of control. The free market will take care of everything don't you know.

It's all too much for my little brain. I see the problems and I know the reasons for the problems. No idea what the solution is though. Too many media outlets devoted to mind control. A general public eating Cheetos and watching reality TV. I wonder how much reality TV they watch in China.

I heard on NPR that while our learning institutions are crumbling and shutting down. The Chinese have 10 times as many higher learning institutions as we do. They're going to kick our butts while we eat cheetos and watch reality TV. What a sad epitaph for what is the strongest economy in the world.

Why aren't we investing in our future? Instead they are trying to cut student loan programs and grants. That way only rich kids regardless of intelligence can go to places like Yale and be cheerleaders.

I have to stop I'm getting depressed.​

 

[I have WHAT in my yard?]

Quote:
China appears to be making a concerted move to corner the rare earth minerals market - do you agree?? And they are doing it exactly as we did post WWII. Move in to troubled country, spend money like sailors on shore leave, tell the people you are going to help them and make them rich while you take control of their assets. Yep, that'll work.

The major reason we need to cozy up to india is the cornering of the oil trade issue. If China gets the upper hand there, and they could, we're shafted. If we team up with India to corner it as allies we might be able to at least hold our own. for a while










Cute video on QE - if you understand it it will make you laugh, if you don't get what just happened it will make you cry. CAUTION: language! (mild)