Feed Pricing - looking ahead

[Ebony Rose]

I've been 'studying' the menus during 'the great depression'; learning to make meals from a bit of leftover fat, milk, a slice of bread, a bit of flour... etc. It looks like we're in for a long hard spell all the way around, and some belt-tightening is sure to come of it. If you know how to can, then do so. If you don't, learn. There's an awful stench from the 'stuff' that's hitting the fan.

 

[U_Stormcrow]

Paywall. I filled out the form to see if my work has a subscription and they sent something to my work email (I won't have access to that till tomorrow afternoon).

The topic sure is worthy of consideration. My feed price has not gone up (yet) and I can afford some increase, but at some point the increases will be too much and decisions will have to be made. Fuel prices will likely climb as well--compounding the feed but also impacting the grocery store (feed prices will be felt there too). Maybe pay the feed price and eat more chicken and eggs? I don't know--something to watch.

Weird. Wasn't paywall'd for me - I don't pay. But it is now.

Anyhow, it said wheat prices were hitting all time highs, because Russia and the Ukraine are both huge producers on the world market, and that people are already shifting to alternative grains, which has helped drive corn prices up about 10% as well...

 

[Sally PB]

I'm going to look at Kalmbach's 20% All Flock feed tomorrow while I'm out and about. It's not organic, but is non-GMO. 1.10% Lysine, .55% Methionine. I'm hoping it's less than the Dumor organic starter/grower I've been getting at TSC.

I like this place better than TSC; it's a small family owned feed store. I've also gotten seed potatoes and other garden stuff there.

 

[saysfaa]

My local mill raised prices again, and have already told their vendors to expect another increase next week.

Its not just local
https://www.ft.com/content/e6a28dd9-ecea-4d67-b6b5-a50301b731b2

Wheat, of course, is a common component in high protein feeds, and we all see corn as an ingredient in just about everything.

Speaking for myself, I don't have room in the entertainment budget to pick up another couple cents per pound, feeding 150# plus per week to the animals, so I'm continuing to cull flock sizes down - I can always hatch more when prices normalize. and of course hoping on my pasture to bend the curve some, though my area is already down 4" in average rainfall for the year. Will be 5" next week...

Need some relief.

I'm leaning the other way. When feed prices go up, I want to increase flock numbers. Part of this is probably the difference in flock size... I would be increasing numbers to get closer to what we would like to eat.

I take the increased cost of chicken feed out of the food budget rather than the entertainment budget. We can eat more oatmeal and beans, less boxed and bagged stuff. I think prices of those will go up faster than prices of chicken feed. Chicken from the store has cost less than I can raise it. Maybe it still will but I can breath easier when I walk past the wide stretches of empty shelves in the grocery store.

The amish store had lids for the canning jars and 50 pound bags of wheat and smaller bags of navy beans, buckwheat groats, lentils, split peas, barley. I think I still have rye to grind. The last two summers, the garden gave more vegetables than we can eat.... I picked up a few test bags from the co op to get the soil samples on their way.

The problem is not enough coop space to expand the flock. A temporary summer coop might work but .... maybe I should go with goats or beef instead.

I've been 'studying' the menus during 'the great depression'; learning to make meals from a bit of leftover fat, milk, a slice of bread, a bit of flour... etc. It looks like we're in for a long hard spell all the way around, and some belt-tightening is sure to come of it. If you know how to can, then do so. If you don't, learn. There's an awful stench from the 'stuff' that's hitting the fan.

You may want to be a little careful with Great Depression recipies. They tend to be much more about filling bellies than providing adequate nutrition.

 

[U_Stormcrow]

I'm leaning the other way. When feed prices go up, I want to increase flock numbers. Part of this is probably the difference in flock size... I would be increasing numbers to get closer to what we would like to eat.

I take the increased cost of chicken feed out of the food budget rather than the entertainment budget. We can eat more oatmeal and beans, less boxed and bagged stuff. I think prices of those will go up faster than prices of chicken feed. Chicken from the store has cost less than I can raise it. Maybe it still will but I can breath easier when I walk past the wide stretches of empty shelves in the grocery store.

The amish store had lids for the canning jars and 50 pound bags of wheat and smaller bags of navy beans, buckwheat groats, lentils, split peas, barley. I think I still have rye to grind. The last two summers, the garden gave more vegetables than we can eat.... I picked up a few test bags from the co op to get the soil samples on their way.

The problem is not enough coop space to expand the flock. A temporary summer coop might work but .... maybe I should go with goats or beef instead.

You may want to be a little careful with Great Depression recipies. They tend to be much more about filling bellies than providing adequate nutrition.

Well, first thing I'm culling is an older goat - he's not getting heavier, he's not getting more tender, and he's already sired a pair of wethers on the property (now age 5 months), and likely has our single dame carrying again... If that cuts my 200# of goat feed a month to 150#, its a savings - and one that will put I don't know how much meat in the freezer. I'm guessing 40#+ So that's an easy call.

I have 5 more roosters to remove, maybe 6. They are just completing puberty, have't quite got their spurs, and are already at the crock pot, stew or grind stage. Their primary weight gain is done, and they don't hold genetics I want that I don't already have in males I'm keeping. So that's easy. Likewise with a handful of hens now in their second year, and a few younger hens who are tiny, slow to lay, and haven't got the genes I want. If I can find a few 2 year old ducks to remove, and cut their numbers in half?

Then I'll add close to 45# of poultry to the freezer (bone in, skinless) to join the goat, and hopefully get down to 250# of feed a month - while giving up nothing on my culling project, and still harvesting enough eggs for myself and my favorite neighbors.

Just in time to bring on three meat rabbits, and add their feed bill to the mix.

 

[Kayla's Lunch]

Do you think that chicken feed might not be available at some point? I've been wondering if I should be stocking up on alternatives if the feed becomes unavailable. Any ideas on what has a long shelf life that could be used as replacement feed? I'm thinking I should start growing mealworms for protein for them.

 

[Ebony Rose]

The feed stores where I am in Panama have quit offering quail feed, game bird feed, pelleted 'all flock' sorts of chicken feed... all varieties of poultry feed are no longer available but for chick feed and what they're calling "layer" feed (with only 6% protein, mostly cracked corn and powder something and NO calcium) (go figure)...

Prices have doubled and the quality just isn't there. I can open a 'fresh' bag of feed and it's grey. Mill dates are not on the bags (never have been in the nearly 20 years I've lived here).
It's annoying to have a bag of feed for a week only to discover halfway down the bag is a sheet of black/grey ooze (bug poop), that I've paid TOP DOLLAR for. Not that only having it a week would afford me any guarantee... the minute you take it out the door, all bets on suitability are off. (Absolutely nothing is guaranteed).

I suspect that eventually chicken feed will be off of the shelves too. I plan to serve my feathered family cooked beans and rice with canned veggies if things get that desperate. Of course, if they get that dire, what my animals (dog, cat, birds) are eating will be MY LEFTOVERS, because I'll be eating the same thing if things come to it.

Back in March 2020, things DID come to it here, as we were on a firm lock-down for 3 solid months before we were allowed to leave our homes in June. Out where I am, we had no taxi service, no bus service, and police were taking anyone that was out of their home that wasn't on the "mandatory" worker's lists to JAIL.

Long story short, it could happen, and it could be worse next time around.

 

[saysfaa]

Do you think that chicken feed might not be available at some point?

I don't think chicken feed will be unavailable in the U.S. as a whole for long stretches of time. I do think it is wise to get more before you are out.

 

[raingarden]

It's too bad that chicken meat has not gone up like beef and pork. If it had, we could almost break even growing our own chicken.

Part of the meat price problem in the U.S. is the consolidation of the meat packing industry. Four companies now control almost all meat packing. By doing contract growing, the meat packers also control meat production and the farmers price. What those four companies decide dictates the consumer price. The profit margin for those four major meat packers has increased 300% since the pandemic started. We're getting screwed.

 

[Brooks_]

The profit margin for those four major meat packers has increased 300% since the pandemic started.

I had recently seen that the margin per head was down. I only saw that in passing; I'll try to find it again.