Heavier than normal fall molt predicted hard winter?

[Foristers]

To OP: how many years have you been keeping a flock?

That question would come across a little condescending if I were the easily offended type.

Is there a specific number of years that one must have before proposing theories and ideas for discussion on this website?
Have I offended anyone in doing so?

 

[oldhenlikesdogs]

That question would come across a little condescending if I were the easily offended type.

Is there a specific number of years that one must have before proposing theories and ideas for discussion on this website?
Have I offended anyone in doing so?

I love a good theory, and debate.

From my experiences how hard or soft they molt has to do with their personal egg production. Better layers seem to molt harder.

I believe a chicken can thicken up it's coat of feathers based on the weather and upcoming winter, though it may not tie into the molt, but other species winter coat thickness is tied into their molt or shedding, so I think chickens would too.

 

[junebuggena]

That question would come across a little condescending if I were the easily offended type.

Is there a specific number of years that one must have before proposing theories and ideas for discussion on this website?
Have I offended anyone in doing so?

Well, it is kind of important to consider the level of experience of the person posing the theory. If you've only been through a few molts, it may seem a stark contrast from a light first year molt compared to a second or third year molt. Someone who has kept a flock for many years will have a large depth of experience, and will have better context and understanding of the molting process and it's hows and whys.

 

[lazy gardener]

That question would come across a little condescending if I were the easily offended type.

Is there a specific number of years that one must have before proposing theories and ideas for discussion on this website?
Have I offended anyone in doing so?

If I were easily offended, I would be offended by your reply. However, I asked, because if this is your first year with adult birds who are going through their first molt, or you have not had adult birds for more than one year who have gone through their first adult molt, then you would have no basis for comparison.

 

[Foristers]

What about those who have chickens in moderate climates that don't experience harsh winters? Last winter, we got enough snow to make a footprint (total for the whole season), but we did have several cold snaps. This year, it's barely hit freezing twice. My hens that do a gradual molt, always molt gradually. Those that are hard molters, are always hard molters. Weather does not have any effect. Any pullets that are over 8 months by October are guaranteed to molt here, the days get so shorter so quickly at that point in the year. It has no relation to the future weather patterns. I have noticed a slight coincidence when it comes to the onset of molting and the lunar and tide cycles though. King tides (slightly closer position of the moon to the earth) tends to increase the odds of a hen starting molt. The west coast just experienced a king tide last week, so any hens that hadn't quite finished dropping feathers prior, did so this past week.

I don't know. I wouldn't expect a chicken in the state of Washington to be preparing for the same winter as one that lives in South Carolina. And you might be right and I might be wrong. It might have to do more with tides/moons, etc.

What I have are a few pieces of evidence that I am trying to if they fit together into something. I admit that they might not but let me review a few of those items.
1) I know that there are some animals in nature that have a tendency to "predict" certain natural events. Whether snakes running ahead of an earthquake, frogs croaking ahead of rain, or bird migrating early or late. Or as Aart said, farm animals putting on a heavier coat.
2) This year my chickens and most others that responded in my area have dropped more feathers and produced much fewer eggs than a normal molt year.
3) It is quickly becoming a hard winter.

 

[aart]

To OP: how many years have you been keeping a flock?

I'm curious too....
...for the reasons Junebuggena states here:

Well, it is kind of important to consider the level of experience of the person posing the theory. If you've only been through a few molts, it may seem a stark contrast from a light first year molt compared to a second or third year molt. Someone who has kept a flock for many years will have a large depth of experience, and will have better context and understanding of the molting process and it's hows and whys.

Also curious where you got your heritage BO's?

 

[HawaiiAraucanas]

I don't have any chickens yet, so I asked my grandpa and grandma-in law (who have chickens) if they Had a heavy molt and egg production drop, now I'm just waiting for them to reply over text message.

 

[Foristers]

If I were easily offended, I would be offended by your reply. However, I asked, because if this is your first year with adult birds who are going through their first molt, or you have not had adult birds for more than one year who have gone through their first adult molt, then you would have no basis for comparison.

Well touchee I suppose. This current flock of all buff orpingtons I have only had for 2 years. Prior to that, back when I lived in Virginia I had a mutt/barnyard flock - I don't even know what they were - but I was aware enough to notice molting, behavior and egg production etc. Prior to that, I started working on a farm in 2007 and prior to that, when I was a youth, my aunt had chickens that I cared for. But at that age I more scared of them then noticing molting/behavior/etc.

So I don't know where I would fall when it comes to my experience with chickens. They have almost always been around, but there were gaps (sometimes a few years) when they were not..

 

[junebuggena]

Well touchee I suppose. This current flock of all buff orpingtons I have only had for 2 years. Prior to that, back when I lived in Virginia I had a mutt/barnyard flock - I don't even know what they were - but I was aware enough to notice molting, behavior and egg production etc. Prior to that, I started working on a farm in 2007 and prior to that, when I was a youth, my aunt had chickens that I cared for. But at that age I more scared of them then noticing molting/behavior/etc.

So I don't know where I would fall when it comes to my experience with chickens. They have almost always been around, but there were gaps (sometimes a few years) when they were not..

To the main point, have you had any one flock for more than two years? If not, I suspect the differences in molt are more to do with first time molt compared to subsequent molts rather than having anything to do with the weather.

 

[lazy gardener]

Thank you. So, your current BO would have gone through their first adult molt (if hatched in spring of 2016) in fall of 2017? Is my fuzzy mental calendar correct? I'm sure with past flocks, you did notice molting patterns. I have no doubt that there are many patterns with animals AND plants that seem to go along with FUTURE weather trends. Such as: super heavy seed production prior to a super hard winter. (noted this season) Larger than usual litters of fox when the rodent population goes up. (the Vixen would have had to be pregnant long before the rodent population went up.)

As I stated previously, my 2017 pullets are blowing feathers this winter (prior to the solstice) and this has never happened before, even though I always start my chicks in April. As for my adult birds, their molt patterns have always been very individualistic. Your BO may be more predictable if they are all from the same strain.