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- #11
The popular vote will be close.
It could end up a tie in electoral votes. Then what ?
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The popular vote will be close.
Anything could happen but I think the odds of that are slim to none. I have been following the numbers of this statistician named Nate Silver. He was a Major League Baseball number cruncher but he went over into politics during the 2008 election. He accurately predicted 49 out of 50 states in 2008, accurately predicted 35 out of 35 senate races in 2008 and accurately predicted 34 out of 36 senate races in 2010.
It doesn't mean he's always going to be right but he has the results to back up his predictions. He forecasts Obama winning 315 electorial votes to Mitt Romney's 222. In a day or so we will see how accurate he is.
I don't think Romney stands a chance in Ohio. Of all those listed I will agree with you on Florida possibly, even though the most recent polls have started to favor the president. It's anyone's guess at this point. I do question Romney's attempts in Pennsylvania. I guess we'll all make our own opinions but to me it seems like a last ditch effort... desperation.
Eh, I don't want to open a big can of worms with this but Rasmussen always favors conservative candidates, getting several elections wrong with their predictions. Rasmussen was on GWB's payroll in 2004. I'm just a little skeptical about their polls. But this probably isn't worth arguing in much length seeing as we are on the eve of the election.
I'm going to watch a movie and go to bed. We'll have our answers tomorrow and here's to hoping your prediction is wrong.